Mavericks Free Agency: Dallas' Dream Point Guard
Yesterday, I took a closer look at the guys that Dallas could turn to in case their main targets turn them down, or that could fill in the depth when those bigger name guys sign. Now let's turn our attention to the guys we really want and deserve to have in a Mavericks jersey. Yes, I said deserve; because as Mavs fans, we've had to endure a lot of heartbreak in past offseasons, so we deserve that big name free agent. You can argue that Parsons and Wesley Matthews were big names, so let's add more like them, if not better.
As I addressed in the point guard draft post, Dallas' starting point guard position is going to be way up in the air next season. Williams has opted out, Raymond Felton is an unrestricted free agent, and Devin Harris and JJ Barea are great in their roles off of the bench. Guys like Jeremy Lin, Brandon Jennings, or even Deron Williams and/or Raymond Felton could very well find themselves in Dallas' starting lineup next season if the Mavs strike out on their main point guard target, or if they find themselves picking up other max guys and can't make the money work. The guy I'm talking about, of course, is Mike Conley, the ex Grizzlies point guard. So let's take a closer look at Conley.
Pros
2015-16 Statistics: 15.3 PPG, 6.1 AST, 2.9 REB, 1.2 STL
Perimeter Defending: Something Dallas has been missing from their starting point guard for a long time is excellent defense. Jason Kidd was solid in his championship days with the Mavericks, but nothing elite, especially with his age. Rajon Rondo was supposed to be that guy last season, but we all know how that ended. Deron Williams last season was okay on the defensive end, but there are very few point guards that compare defensively to Conley. The point guard was awarded with the all NBA defensive second team back in 2013 and has made a case for the team every year since. Conley's best facet of his defense is forcing his opponent into traps or towards the middle where his big men are awaiting them. Mike logs nearly two steals per game and back in 2013, grabbed a league high 174. Conley finished this past injury-riddled season with a defensive rating of 110. Higher than he was used to, but when healthy, that number will come way down. A defensive backcourt of Wesley Matthews and Mike Conley would be oh so sweet.
Offensive Threat: Conley is an above average three point shooter for a point guard in his career. Overall, Conley is a 37% three point shooter for his career, but his most efficient shooting comes from is out of each corner. Conley knocks down an average of 43% between each corner and creates a lot of space with a pump fake, a la Chandler Parsons. He catches the ball ready to shoot when he's behind the three point line, and that leads to his excellent efficiency. He's very solid off the dribble, even in transition, but you would much rather see him pull up off of a catch, as is the case with most shooters. Perhaps Conley's best offensive weapon, however, is his floater. Conley's excellent ball-handling allows him to beat defenders to the right and pull up over bigger defenders in the middle and gently float the ball into the rim. It's really a thing of beauty. Barea and Felton do it really well, but Conley's is something else. A two way point guard like Conley is hard to find.
Passing: Conley averaged 6.1 assists last season on the Grizzlies, tied for the second highest assists average of his career. And that was playing on a team that broke the 1996-97 Mavericks' record for the most amount of players used in one season at 28. Most of these guys were D-League call-ups and young guys on 10-day contracts. No bueno for Memphis. Conley really just sees the floor well and can find the open man with no trouble at all. He's a real floor general, he runs the floor incredibly well and sets the fast break up with crisp passes down court. In an offense that spreads the wealth, Conley is the guy Dallas wants running the show.
Age: Mike is literally in the physical prime of his career. At 28 years old, Conley really has a lot left in the tank. The best part of Conley's age mixed with his game is that he's not a point guard that relies on quickness. His age is right where Dallas needs it to be. Wes Matthews is 29 and Chandler Parsons is 27, throw in an elite 28 year old starting point guard and the Mavs should be able to gel in no time with a chance to compete for the next few years as well. Just enough experience mixed with more than enough left in the tank. The perfect combo.
Cons
Injuries: This is not a pretty list so brace yourselves. Two seasons ago, Conley was hit with a left wrist sprain, a sprained right ankle, a sprained right foot, and a facial injury, all adding up to 12 missed games. Not awful. This past season is where it got real ugly. A sore left achilles in January led to a few missed games, but then in March, his entire left foot became sore and Memphis shut him down for the rest of the season, leading to a total of 26 missed games, not including the playoffs. This could be a positive for the Mavs as it could scare away other teams, but Dallas training staff is top notch and could keep him healthier than just about any team potentially could. Conley is cleared to play in the 2016 Olympic games if he's invited and chooses to do so, but those injuries could flare up at just about any unforeseen time.
Other Potential Suitors: The worst part about free agency is all those other pesky teams that need to fill their roster as well. Well, Conley is going to be in high demand. The Grizzlies are going to want him back, the Knicks have been known to be highly interested in the point guard since the early end to their season, and now the Spurs are being named as a dark horse to acquire Conley's services. Memphis can pay Conley $124 million over 5 years, while every other team can only pay him $92 million over 4 years. I would be surprised to see Conley going back to Memphis if they don't bring in some help for the stud point guard. Marc Gasol is still one of the best centers in the league, but the rest of Memphis's roster is Zach Randolph and other dudes. It's not pretty. League insiders recently got the sense that Conley is leaning towards leaving the only team he's ever played for. Worst case scenario is Conley deciding to go to San Antonio, allowing Tony Parker to come off the bench and letting San Antonio remain in the top 3 of the west year after year after year after... well, y'all know how it goes.
What it Would Take to Get Him to Dallas
Conley is well worth the max. That isn't up for debate. There's not a single point guard on the market this summer that even comes close to Conley's skill set or that fits Dallas' system better. So besides a max contract, here's what the Mavs are going to have to reassure Mike of. 1) They can continue to keep good talent around him to make sure they're competitive (shouldn't be difficult). 2) Casey Smith and the rest of Dallas' training staff will keep him healthier than any other team can (difficult). 3) Carlisle will share the play calling responsibilities with him. Conley isn't selfish like good ole Rajon Rondo, but he's smart and deserves that kind of responsibility when running the show and reading the defenses in the flow of a game.
(Sorry he's in a Portland jersey, I promise it's still him!!) Pairing him up with Wesley Matthews in that backcourt would be something to watch. Just about the only two guards that could score on that duo would be the Splash Brothers in Golden State. Not only would the defense be great, the three pointers would be raining and the bow and arrows would be flying. If the Mavs can bring an athletic big man to protect the rim and catch lobs with him, Conley would be the best signing of the summer. By any team. Chills.
