Early Season Assumptions-Rangers Are Eastern Conference Favorites?
Credit: Jim McIsaac
You hear it from coaches all the time. Break the season down into small bite size pieces. That means you take your 82 game season and break it into 8, 10 or 12 game samples. We're at that point right now. As I type these letters onto this post there are only two teams that have played less than 9 games (Columbus and New Jersey have played just 8 games).
Can we predict who will win the Stanley Cup based on these 9 or 10 games? No not really, we have playoff brackets with just 16 teams and less games and we still can't accurately predict who will win. BUT, we do have a hint on how these teams are going to play all season long and what they do well and why they could be a threat late in the season.
We've seen it time and time again, you CAN start great or terribly and still go the opposite way. Look no further than just last season where Montreal went unbeaten in their first 9 games of the season and were 18-4-3 going into December but ended up missing the playoffs and going just 20-34-3 for the remainder of the season.
Then you look at the Anaheim Ducks who were awful at the start of the season, couldn't even score a goal for the first month of the season and they end up winning their division. The point, a lot can change in the next 22 weeks and 70+ games. But it's still fun to jump to conclusions isn't it?
New York Rangers are favorites in the eastern conference.
The Rangers did something similar last season and I jumped on their quick start then too. They could very well do exactly what they did last season, start hot and get cold at the worst possible time but thee way they are playing makes you think of the Pittsburgh Penguins last spring and oh yeah, they won the Stanley Cup.
This team is fast. We saw what speed can do in the playoffs last season. The speedy Penguins made a really good San Jose Sharks team look completely overmatched. Pittsburgh made the Sharks team who had good speed themselves look like one of the slowest teams there was.
What was the teams perceived weakness? Team defense. Most people didn't think their defensive corps were good or deep enough to beat most teams they went up against, The Capitals (the best team in the regular season) the Lightning (coming off a Stanley Cup Final appearance and consecutive final four berths) and the Sharks.
From what I hear from Rangers fans and writers defensive depth is also a concern. But we saw how team speed can make up for that. If your forwards help and use their speed to get in position and don't even allow teams to get in the attacking zone you can win battles and win races and constantly send the play the other way making your opponent play D.
Even with this "weak" defense the Rangers are one of the best teams in Goals Against Average at 2.20. You can look at all the fancy stats and Corsi and adjusted Corsi all you want. But if you ask me there are just a few simple stats to look at and GAA is one of them. I had to go all the way back to 2009 to find the last time a team won the Stanley Cup when they were worse than 6th in goals against per game. Since then the Cup winners goals against per game were ranked 6th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 6th.
The defense may not have the biggest or most known names, but the Rangers do have a ton of speed and still have Henrik Lundqvist. Watch out for the blueshirts.
Tampa Bay is still the team to beat in the east.
Yes I understand calling the Rangers the favorites then calling the Lightning the team to beat maybe confusing but just listen. You can't count out a team that in the last two seasons have made the Stanley Cup Final and came within one game or even one goal from going back to the Final the very next year. If the team made a bunch of changes then yes maybe you could put them down in the pecking order, but the Lightning have made very few changes.
Tampa Bay is still deep in pretty much every position. They have four very good forward lines, they have one of the best top 4 D groups in my eyes and they have two goalies and either of them can take you far in my opinion.
I can't back this up with all the stats in the world right now. Tampa has gotten off to a little bit of a slow start, right now sitting just 6-4 and in the top wild card spot. I won't ever pick a team who gives up 3 goals per game and bottom third in that category to win the Cup or even go far. But the Lightning were 5th in that stat last season and you have to think at some point they will get their act together and start shutting teams down.
Are the Penguins better than last season? Yes. Are the Canadiens better? Yes. Are the Rangers better? I obviously think so. The Lightning definitely have more competition this year than last year but you could argue this team has been the best team out east for the last couple of season and with very little changes over the last two or three years you can't count this team out and still have to consider this is the team to beat. If you want to represent the east in the Stanley Cup Final that quest goes through the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Devan Dubnyk is your early season Vezina front-runner.
Carey Price's face is just flashing in your mind right now isn't it? I don't blame you if it is. Price won the MVP as a goalie just a couple of years ago and we saw what the Canadiens are without him. Price is 5-0 with a 1.40 GAA and .954 save %. How can he not be the Vezina favorite early on?
I think when you're looking for an award winner you have to take everything into consideration. In the best goalie category you have to look at how the backup is playing as well. For the Canadiens Al Montoya is right there with Price. He's 3-0 in 4 games, has a 1.47 GAA and .955 save %. According to Corsica Montoya has also faced more high danger shots than Price has.
Devan Dubnyk's backup has not been as great. Darcy Kuemper has played just two games as carries a 4.00 GAA and .871 save %.
Dubnyk has a 1.51 GAA and .948 save %. Dubnyk also has 3 shutouts early on this season.
I'm not going to be one of those guys and pretend I know everything and watch every single game. There simply isn't enough time to do that. So just like a lot of people I have to rely on stats to tell me what I cant see. One stat I see is that Dubnyk faces more high danger shots than Price does. Based on my math Price see's just over 4 high dangers chances a game while Dubnyk see's just under 5 high danger chances a game.
It's early on in the season and ask me in two weeks and I think I'll most likely say Price is your Vezina favorite. But early on in the season I'm caught up in the Devan Dubnyk hype.
The eastern conference is better on defense.
Over the last couple of season the west has generally been considered "deeper". There are more teams that can win the Stanley Cup and overall play most think is harder, bigger and more defensive. So far this season the defensive argument has to be put on hold. Right now there are four teams in the NHL who have allowed less than 20 goals, all four of those teams come from the eastern conference (Columbus, New Jersey, Washington & Montreal).
For that stat we can also go back to my old friend goals against per game. There are seven teams from the eastern conference that sit in the top ten in GAA, Montreal, Washington, New Jersey, New York Rangers, Buffalo, Columbus and Florida.
I've made my point perfectly clear, goals against per game is a stat to watch more closely than possibly any other. After seeing the west dominate for the last few years maybe the east getting tighter on defense will mean the east wins more Cups?
The Edmonton Oilers are finally a team to watch out for.
It's not solely because of Connor McDavid. It's not because of the high powered offense we're used to. It's because of the defense. We all said how the Oilers can be as great as they want on offense but until they sort out the defensive end they will stay a bad team. Well early on the Oilers have let up just 22 goals which is best in their division and considering they play in a division with the usually stingy California teams that's saying something.
The 2.20 goals against per game is good for a top 5 spot and one of just three western conference teams in the top 10 in that category.
The penalty killing is also better. Last season the Oilers were 17th in PK% at 81.1, so far this season the Oilers are 2nd in PK at 90%.
The shots against per game is still too high at 31.3 but after years and years of bad hockey I think Oilers fans will allow that to remain high as long as pucks don't go in and the team keeps winning.
Edmonton's schedule has been somewhat soft, in their 10 games so far this season the Oilers have played just two games against teams who made the playoffs last season St Louis on the 10th and the Capitals on the 26th. I can't say anything about the Blues game, I didn't see that game but the way the Oilers shut down the Washington Capitals on the 26th was impressive. Washington could not get much going in that game and to beat the reigning Presidents' Trophy winners was a great result.
Oh but there is so much more hockey to be played. I only touched on things that I have seen but there are no shortage of things to talk about, make sure to tell me what you've seen so far this season. Leave a comment or find me on Twitter @CJPaigeTHL25.
