UCF Tactical Analysis and Michigan Preview

Offense:

UCF was utterly dominant yesterday on the offensive side of the ball. In every facet, UCF was the better team. In the statistical categories, UCF led in total yards(446-223), first downs(28-12), turnovers(3-2 though a UCF turnover came in garbage time), and possession(32:22 to 27:38). Of course the offense got off to a slow start thanks to quarterback Justin Holman's slow start. He was after all 6-17 in the first half. But you see, this was because Holman was transitioning from a slow tempo(UCF ranked 120th in pace last year) to a more up tempo one with Frost. You would have to expect some growing pains from Holman as he got used to the increase in pace. This is in no way excusing the fact that Holman still maintained his bad habits like throwing down the middle to covered receivers. 

However, Holman did settle down going 8-12 in the second half. He seemed to get more used to the tempo of the offense. This was an offense after all  that ran 91 plays against South Carolina State. With that being said, I think this is the perfect offense for Justin Holman. Now why is that? Well it is not just because it is a fast tempo, but it is because the amount of options that Frost's "Blur" offense provides. Especially when lined up in the Triple Straddled Option. On one play in particular in the first half There was a play where Holman had the option to either run the ball, throw a pass down the middle to wide receiver Dredrick Snelson(the worse option and the one he chose), check it down to running back Jawon Hamilton  or hit safety valve receiver Jordan Akins. Yes that particular play failed, but in the second half Holman on a similar play was able to make the smarter read  and hit Akins as a safety valve and Akins was able to take the ball down to inside the South Carolina State 10 yard line.

What else makes this offense the perfect fit for Justin Holman and to a greater extent backup qb Nick Patti is because of the space this offense creates. While a one dimensional offense like Hawaii's allows a defense to gameplan say against the Air Raid, UCF's makes the defense pick their poison.  Especially when in the straddled option formation which was the most used formation by Frost on Saturday. It is in this formation that Holman(or whoever is the quarterback) can easily keep the ball for himself and run it. Unlike previous UCF coordinators Frost/Troy Walters realize the benefit of how much space this offense opens up. Holman ran it 12 times out of this formation for 40 yards and 1 touchdown. This is the formation and system that Holman should have been running all along. Holman is a running quarterback that was forced to be a pocket passer in O'Leary's "system". He needs to use his 6'4 frame to get into space as he will be harder to tackle.  But now he has the ability to keep it or hand it off. As the season progresses, I wouldn't be surprised to see him more as a runner.

I will go out on a limb and say that UCF's wide receiving group is one of the more talented WR's that Frost has worked with. Typically when one thinks about Frost's offense, they think about the running game. But at UCF, Frost has an abundance of fast, talented receivers. Tre'Quan Smith, Tristan Payton, Jordan Akins, Dredrick Snelson allow Frost to have an advantage on teams that will try to stack the box to stop the run. Against South Carolina State, Frost used Snelson and Akins in particular, as safety vales and on short screens. If a hyper aggressive defense tries to run blitz or stack the box like South Carolina State tried to, expect short quick passes to offset that. Tre'Quan Smith(AAC's freshman of the year last year) and Payton are a duo of deep threats who will only grow in this offense. Both combined for over 100 yards and had 2 combined touchdowns on Saturday. They are the game breakers on offense.

Defense: 

While all the focus was on the offense, the defense was the better unit. You want to talk domination? Look at what this defense did last night. The switch from 4-3 to 3-4 was much better than expected and makes you wonder why didn't UCF run this defense sooner. The 3-4 seems like a natural fit for these athletes. Whereas the defense last year looked slow and lost, this defense looked faster and more aggressive. Sure the defense only got 1 sack, but they mauled South Carolina State's offense all night. Whenever a SCSU player received the ball, there were 3 or 4 defensive players to make the stop. Oh and they were ball hungry. UCF forced 3 turnovers(2 fumbles and a highlight interception). UCF's defense was miserable in the 4-3 last year. They looked slow and players were playing out of position. That's why ranked in the bottom half of most traditional and advanced statistics last season.

Speaking of players that were playing out of position may I introduce Shaquem Griffin. Griffin was listed and played as a defensive back last year. It was clear that he was not a defensive back. His 6'1 frame and build were more linebacker esque. Yet UCF continued to play him as a defensive back until defensive coordinator Erik Chinander arrived. Chinander moved Shaquem Griffin to linebacker and oh did Griffin repay Chinander. Shaquem had 4 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 forced fumble. But it was his versatility that really shined. Chinander used Griffin as a coverage linebacker, on the blitz, and a edge rusher. He may have been most effective as an edge rusher as he beat the South Carolina State blockers off the edge routinely. The switch to 3-4 requires athletic linebackers that can be used for multiple purposes and Griffin fits that role to a tee. Oh and his brother Shaquille had an interception in the game as well. 

Trysten Hill may be my favorite new UCF player. He's only 18, but one couldn't tell by his 6'2 295 pound frame. He is listed as a defensive tackle, but Chinander used him as a defensive end a few times against South Carolina State. Yes, he did sometimes  buy in fakes, but Hill is still learning. In fact he had a tackle for loss and should have had a few more. For his debut it was quite impressive. His pairing with Jamiyus Pittman caused problems for the South Carolina State offensive line. After all the Bulldogs were held to 85 yards on 32 rushing attempts. This pairing also helped to create space for the likes of Shaquem Griffin to get through. It was a brilliant display.  Hill is the future of the UCF defense. 

Overall, the defense impressed me much more than the offense. This defense is fast and hyper aggressive, which UCF was missing last year.

Michigan Preview:

Well I didn't get a chance to watch Michigan-Hawaii so let me check the box score............. 

Oh God. 

This Michigan team looks frightening. They were ranked 7th in the country according the preseason polls, but after how Michigan dismantled Hawaii they probably should be top 4. Michigan is a dominant force and unlike say a Tennessee the Wolverines deserve all the preseason hype.  The offense is led by a rotation of quarterbacks including UCF's good friend John O'Korn(missed you bae). But freshman Wilton Speight might be the best of the bunch. He started against Hawaii and went 10-13 for 145 yards and 3 TDS. But the scariest aspect of this offense if fresh,an running back Chris Evans who ran for 112 yards, 2 touchdowns oh and only on 8 carries. This pro style offense with sometimes spread principals is terrifying. 

Oh and I haven't even mentioned Don Brown's defense. You know the unit that has the best defensive line in the country. And has returners and first round draft picks all over the place. Cornerbacks might be the deepest position of their defense what with Jourdan Lewis, Channing Stribbling, and Jeremy Clark. Yeah this defense truly scares me. This might be the best defense that UCF has faced EVER.

Unless UCF plays perfectly, this is going to be a loss. However, despite going winless last year, this UCF team is much better than the Hawaii team Michigan played last week. Last year UCF did not have any coaches(I hate you so much O'Leary) and already you can see the improvement in this team under Frost and company. If UCF wants to stand a chance to keep this game close there are 3 factors UCF must do:

1. Get Justin Holman going early- if he can carry the rhythm over from the second half to this Michigan game than UCF has a puncher's chance.

2. Trysten Hill and Jamiyus Pittman get pressure- While Speight was impressive last week, he did show that he has the ability to be rattled last week early in the game. If Hill and Pittman get to Speight or create those gaps that allow Griffin and Errol Clarke to blitz, UCF's hyper aggressive defense can possibly cause a turnover. It is also imperative that these two somehow push the offensive line back, they can contain Evans.

3. Papercut Michigan to death- as I said earlier, Frost's offense creates a multitude of options especially short passes. Yes, Michigan's defense is designed to stop spread offenses, but there are ways to beat it. One of those ways is to utilize the safety valve receivers and rake up the short yardage particularly Jordan Akins. If UCF can force Michigan to switch Lewis or Stribbling off of Tre'Quan Smith and cover the safety valve,  I can see Smith doing some damage.

Now let's talk about players UCF fans should be worried about:

EVERYONE!!!( seriously this Michigan team is stacked)

Seriously, I know UCF is probably going to lose this game especially on the road. But if they can keep it close and show that strides are being made, I will be happy.