Alex Dickerson's rampage may be sustainable
Since June 21st the Giants are 16-7 and have vaulted themselves back into the playoff race sitting just 2.5 games back of the second wild card as of this writing. Why am I beginning from the 21st of June? That was the day that Alex Dickerson made his Giants debut when he hit a grand slam and drove in six runs in a Giants victory over the D-backs. Since then Alex Dickerson has continued to destroy the baseball. In his 20 games and 69 plate appearances with the Giants, Dickerson has compiled a .410/.478/.787 line with four home runs, 19 runs batted in and 16 runs scored. That is absolutely ridiculous and completely unsustainable. However, there are some signs that Dickerson is actually a good baseball player and that even though he is guaranteed to regress it may be a slight regression instead of a large one.
One of the key stats that makes me believe that Dickerson can maintain success at the big leagues is the fact that Dickerson has struck out twelve times while walking seven times. That gives Dickerson a .58 K/BB ratio that is on line with his productive 2016 season with the Padres where he hit .257/.333/.455 with 10 home runs, 39 runs scored, and 37 runs batted in in 84 games. Those numbers are obviously significantly lower than what he has done this season but it does provide a baseline where we can recognize that Dickerson has been successful at the big league level before.
Another key stat that we can look at that should make you feel good about Dickerson is his hard hit % of 53.1%. Obviously that is also unsustainable but in his MLB career Dickerson is averaging a hard hit % of 37.5% which is extremely good. That makes me believe that even if Dickerson does regress he will still hit the ball hard which will lead to a sustainable offensive presence.
The final stat I want to observe to hopefully increase the belief that Dickerson can maintain success is his infield fly ball %. The stat is simply how often the hitter pops the ball up on the infield. Dickerson's 2019 IFFB% is currently sitting at 4.8% which is significantly better than the 10.6% he had in 2016. However, even if that number were to increase as he regresses, that stat shows me that Dickerson's swing is rarely greedy and that he can adjust on the fly at the plate.
Alex Dickerson's rampage during the lat 20 games is unsustainable but not so much so that he isn't a valuable big leaguer. Expecting his current production to continue would be unwise but don't sleep on Alex Dickerson being a pretty damn good baseball player.