Revising the Packers' 2018 Draft
Ted Thompson wasn't the decision maker this year, but he was still in the room.
While this is just a simple, already-known fact for any common cheesehad, the statement pretty much sums up how I feel about this year's draft. I've had over 24 hours since Mr. Irrelevant was picked, and I'm still not exactly sure how I feel about the Packers' draft overall. Trading back to get a first rounder next year was genius, and I'm a big fan of trading back up to get Jaire Alexander. After that, my adoration for Green Bay's front office trailed off, especially with the Oren Burks selection. In this article, I'll begin with each selection made, which will include the scouting report I built for each prospect before the draft, followed by how I feel about it. Sound good? Let's begin.
Pick #18: Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville. Grade: A
Scouting Report: Jaire Alexander was ranked as a mid-to-late 2nd rounder before he ran a 4.38 forty at the combine. He doesn't have great height (5'10"), and his slender build combined with a sprained knee he battled through most of 2017 raises durability concerns at the next level. Alexander's speed helps him deserve Slot Cornerback starting reps, and if he can stay healthy, he has a realistic upside of a Teez Tabor-like CB2.
Opinion: There are so many things I like about this pick. Before anything about the player, Green Bay got a 2019 First Round Pick from the Saints just to move back four spots. Genius. I had Jaire Alexander as my 31st-ranked player overall, and at #18, the second best Cornerback available. I had Josh Jackson ranked higher, but he's an outside cornerback who's a bit more of a project, and the Packers' current Cornerbacks (Tramon Williams, Davon House and Kevin King) have the outside covered. What Green Bay needed is a fast slot corner option, and Jaire Alexander is exactly that. A 4.38 forty? I'll take that any day. There are some durability concerns, and he needs to add some muscle to his lean 5'10" frame, but he's the perfect pick for Green Bay's biggest need who, as a bonus, can challenge Trevor Davis right away for returning responsibilities. Well done, Brian Gutekunst
Pick #45: Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa. Grade: B-
Scouting Report: Josh Jackson may only be six feet tall, but his super-long arms help him maximize his length. He exploded onto the scene his Junior year, and while some may criticize that he's only had one good year, picking off Ohio State three times in one game and adding an Interception in Iowa's bowl game defends the fact he plays up to the level of his opponents consistently. The talent is there for Jackson, but his inexperience and inconsistencies following routes may haunt him at the next level. His instincts and mentality are definitely there, and while Jackson may only be a mediocre CB2 option right away, he has the tools to be a lesser-Josh Norman, shutdown corner in the future.
Opinion: I'm actually a big fan of Josh Jackson as a Cornerback. As I pointed out in my scouting report, he reminds me of an underdeveloped Josh Norman. I'm just not sold that this is the best pick here at #45, where a lot of talented players (who could fill other needs) are still available. Tramon Williams and Davon House are both short-term options, I get that, but after picking Jaire Alexander, the Cornerback depth chart boasts Williams, House, Alexander, Kevin King, and Quinten Rollins as the CB5. Green Bay still needs a young edge rusher and help at both Right Guard and Right Tackle. This being said, I'm not quite sure this is the most sensible pick. Josh Jackson was definitely one of the best players available overall regardless of position, but Green Bay might rue this like they did last year passing on T.J. Watt.
Pick #88: Oren Burks, LB, Vanderbilt. Grade: D
Scouting Report: Oren Burks has never spent more than a year at the same position, and in today's version of Linebackers, that's actually a plus. He fits well as a 3-4 Inside Linebacker who drops back, or a 4-3 weakside Outside Linebacker. Burks' insticts and overall tackling technique need a lot of work at the next level, but his coverage ability and athleticism should be enough to earn a roster spot with a realistic upside of a quality sub-package rotational option.
Opinion: I don't know why Green Bay traded up to get him. I gave him a 5th Round grade at best, and his overall rank was 166th. He's really only usable in coverage packages right away, which I guess is something the Packers needed considering Clay Matthews and Nick Perry are rush-first Outside Linebackers. Still, in Green Bay's base 3-4 set, he only translates as a backup Inside Linebacker used on pass defense. Maybe Mike Pettine could get creative in using him, but he's simply not valuable enough to make specific packages for him. This could have been a talented edge rusher like Josh Sweat, Dorance Armstrong or Obo Okoronkwo, and there were plenty of deserving Guards and Right Tackles still on the board.
Pick #133: J'Mon Moore, WR, Missouri. Grade: D
Scouting Report: J'mon Moore is definitely a work in progress. He has a 6'3", sturdy frame, and while his 4.6 forty may have dug him a hole as far as draft stock is concerned, his tape shows solid down-field speed, an important attribute at the next level. He dropped the ball a ton his junior year, did a much better job his senior year, but then dropped a large sum of passes during Senior Bowl practices. He still has the ceiling to be a quality backup Wide Receiver, but there's a lot of moving pieces and traits far from developed, marking his floor alarmingly low.
Opinon: I don't have a problem with the position, as there's a need for receiver after cutting Jordy Nelson. I have an issue with the player, though. On my big board, there were NINE Wide Receivers ranked above J'Mon Moore available at #133. He was my 24th-ranked wideout, and ranked 220th overall. He doesn't have much higher of a ceiling than WR3, and given his dropping concerns and disappointing 4.6 forty time, he has a realistic practice squad floor. This seems like a Malachi Dupre situation, except we're wasting a fourth rounder instead of a seventh. I like the 6'3", sturdy size with long arms, but he's nothing more than a fringe roster player, not a legitimate deep threat like other receivers on the board.
Pick #138: Cole Madison, OL, Washington State. Grade: C-
Scouting Report: Cole Madison has excellent athleticism and feet quickness for a 6'5", 308 pound lineman. He mostly player Right Tackle in college, but his poor knee bend and relatively short arms almost certainly move him inside to Guard. Madison is best fit for a pass-heavy system where is inability to truly anchor in run or pass protection is not easily exploited. He needs to add strength and bulk to his frame, and if he pairs that with consistently good technique and positioning, he should develop quickly into a decent backup Guard.
Opinion: Finally, Gutekunst & co. address the depleted O-Line. I like his versatility, but there were four higher-ranked Guards and three higher-ranked Right Tackles available at #138. Plus, he was my 188th-overall prospect, so it's far from a best-player-available scenario. He's a decent guy to have come off the bench, and he should provide decent competition to Justin McCray at Right Guard, but Right Tackle is a bigger need and Madison's ceiling sits as a fill-in starter at best. We didn't draft a future every-down starter here.
Pick #172: JK Scott, P, Alabama. Grade: B
Scouting Report: JK Scott has four years of punting experience with the best team in the country. His 45.6 Yards Per Punt is impressive, and he's shown consistency in punting for both distance and placement. Scott is a do-it-all Punter whose long legs and composed hands translate well to mistake-free punting at the next level. Whoever drafts Scott will get a long career out of a decent NFL Punter.
Opinion: I was honestly a bit surprised that we took a Punter. I obviously had to take a look at Justin Vogel's stats, and he ranked 24th in Yards Per Punt with 44.4 and 8th in Net Average with 41.6 Yards. I guess those numbers are mediocre, especially if you consider his ranking (29th) in punts within the 20 yard line. Scott's career average yards per punt is over a whole yard better than Vogel's season last year, so I suppose we made a Special Teams upgrade in the 5th Round. Not bad, actually. There were probably stronger needs to address, but he was the best Punter available and actually a better ranking value (#182 overall) for the spot than earlier picks by Green Bay.
Pick #174: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, South Florida: D-
Scouting Report: Marquez Valdes-Scantling has an incredible combination of height (6'4"), weight (206 lb.) and speed (4.37 forty). He's definitely one of the rawest receivers in this class, though. MVS really never found a way to create separation at South Florida, and his poor ball skills will eliminate his odds of being a deep threat at the next level. Unlikely to get drafted, he's a good candidate to develop for a couple years on a practice squad, and if he grows in a pass-happy system with an accurate Quarterback, he could develop into a long ball WR4.
Opinion: Again, what's with drafting project receivers when you have legitimate, immediate-impact options still on the board? at #174, I had SEVENTEEN better receivers than Valdes-Scantling available. I get that they want sizable projects, but they already drafted one in J'Mon Moore and have two others on their roster in Michael Clark and DeAngelo Yancey. I can almost guarantee Valdez-Scantling won't make the active roster, whereas Deon Cain, Cedrick Wilson and Marcell Ateman are all immediate impact players still on the board at #174. There's still no young edge rusher or Right Tackle taken yet either.
Pick #207: Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame. Grade: B
Scouting Report: If a Quarterback finds a window of opportunity for Equanimeous St. Brown, he'll take advantage of it. He's 6'5" with a sub-4.5 forty time, making him an instant target for any offense. Despite his frame, he gets beat by press corners far too frequently. St. Brown just doesn't play tough. He's also never been a volume target and never will be, critically capping his potential. His measurables will earn a roster spot, but it's unlikely St. Brown develops into anything more than a match-up-based backup receiver.
Opinion: I only had three receivers ranked higher than St. Brown at #207, and he's actually a decent bench fit. He's 6'5", fast, and will bring in any aerial jump ball. Having Aaron Rodgers, debatably the most accurate QB in the league, throwing passes makes him a matchup threat (especially in the red zone) right away. I had St. Brown ranked higher than J'Mon Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and somehow, the third receiver taken by Green Bay is my favorite one of all.
Pick #232: James Looney, DL, California. Grade: D
Scouting Report: James Looney's tape is filled with explosiveness and disruption. However, when you compare 2016 to 2017, he somehow got easier to block. Looney's 6'3", 282-pound frame will prevent him from playing inside at the next level, unless it's some wacky package. He translates best as a 4-3 Defensive End, possibly moving inside in pass-specific packages. Still, Looney's misproportioned with a poor pad level. He just doesn't fit well anywhere. Looney's ceiling is likely as a subpackage specialist, but he'll need to get stronger and figure out a way to gain ground more consistently if he even wants to get drafted, let alone survive the cuts in camp.
Opinion: It's hard for me to get too critical with a pick in the middle of the 7th Round, but this pick all in all just doesn't make sense. James Looney ranked 270th on my big board, which isn't awful value, but Defensive Line may be the most secure position. Maybe he's taking the spot of Quinton Dial (who's still available to re-sign for cheap, I may add) as a situational backup, which I guess isn't an awful value at #232, but there are still much better option to roll the dice on here.
Pick #239: Hunter Bradley, LS, Mississippi State. Grade: B+
Scouting Report: He's the second-ranked Long Snapper by NFL.com. That's all I got.
Opinion: Hunter Bradley, a seventh-round pick, may actually have the biggest impact out of the entire 11-man class. Last year, Green Bay somehow had three different long snappers (Brett Goode, Taybor Pepper and Derek Hart) on their roster at different times. Hunter Bradley may take all of their jobs by stepping in and being the long-term Long Snapper. If he build good rapport with Mason Crosby and new Punter JK Scott in camp, I don't see why the job wouldn't be his. A surprisingly high-impact pick at #239.
Pick #248: Kendall Donnerson, OLB, Southeast Missouri State. Grade: D
Scouting Report: Kendall Donnerson is just a fun option to bring into training camp. His tape is disappointing, but he tests far above his mediocre 6'2", 248-pound frame. Donnerson's technique and skill are far from usable at the next level, but his athleticism may be encouraging for a develop-first team to stash on their practice squad in hopes that he can learn some tools and tricks to make an active roster as a rotational bench option down the road.
Opinion: Okay, NOW you pick an edge rusher, but one not even good enough to make an active roster? Jeff Holland and Marcell Frazier are two edge rushers miraculously still on the board at #248 who could be utilized as rotational options right away. You also end the draft with no additional options at Right Tackle. I don't understand how, with 11 picks in a single draft, you don't select a single roster-worthy option at edge rusher or Right Tackle, two of the team's three or four biggest needs.
OVERALL GRADE: B
This is the same grade I gave to last year's draft, and four players from that draft (Kenny Clark, Josh Jones, Jamaal Wiliams and Aaron Jones) were significant contributors. In a similar fashion, I expect Jaire Alexander, Josh Jackson, JK Scott and Equanimeous St. Brown to have at least a shot of making an impact in Green Bay's 2018 campaign. Brian Gutekunst definitely filled the need at Cornerback, and he probably did enough for Green Bay to be comfortable with their receiving corps. However, he failed to add a roster-worthy edge rusher, which in my opinion was the biggest need. They also failed to nab a new option at Right Tackle, where neither Brian Bulaga nor Jason Spriggs have proven their worth.
Alright, now it's my turn...
Pick #18: Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville
I gave this pick an "A" for a reason. I'd take either him or edge rusher Harold Landry here, and Alexander's health concerns aren't as sever as Landry's.
Pick #45: Lorenzo Carter, OLB, Georgia
Unlike Brian Gutekunst, I actually decided to address out biggest need. Assuming he can bulk up before September, he's start-ready as a 3-4 Outside Linebacker, giving Clay Matthews the freedom to move inside. I don't necessarily dislike the Josh Jackson selection, as he addresses a position of need and he's one of the best available players here, but this is a much better choice for the defensive depth chart as a whole.
Pick #88: Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama
Ronnie Harrison's not exactly filling a need, but he's the best player available and an immediate difference-maker as a combo safety, especially as a run stopper. He fits in pretty much any scheme new DC Mike Pettine could draw up, many more packages than LB Oren Burks.
Pick #133: Tyrell Crosby, T/G, Oregon
Tyrell Crosby is an absolute steal at #133, as he's a legitimate starting option right away at both Right Guard and Right Tackle. This is automatically more impactful of a pick than WR J'Mon Moore
Pick #138: Deon Cain, WR, Clemson
As far as I'm concerned, this is an incredible value for #138. Deon Cain will never be the top guy, but he has all the tools to be used inside or outside as a WR4 right away, with a near-future upside of a WR2. He also doesn't come with the character concerns that Jordan Lasley and Antonio Callaway, two wideouts I was considering at #88, have on their resumes. Plus, thanks to taking Tyrell Crosby five picks earlier, I don't need to make a crazy reach for G Cole Madison. Look at me, I filled the four biggest needs with my first five picks. Hire me.
Pick #172: JK Scott, P, Alabama
JK Scott is the best Punter available, and finding a new, immediate starter in the 5th Round at any position is a good value. No problems here.
Pick #174: Luke Falk, QB, Washington State
I don't know about most Packers fans, but I'm not comfortable with DeShone Kizer as my QB2 and best long-term option. I gave Luke Falk a 3rd Round grade, and I have no idea how he fell this far, but I believe he could succeed learning behind Aaron Rodgers for a couple of years and develop into at least a high-end QB2.
Pick #207: Equanimous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame
This is an incredible value pick at a position where drafting more than one player makes sense. No complaints here.
Pick #232: Jeff Holland, OLB, Auburn
No idea how Jeff Holland didn't hear his name called on Day 3, because his attributes make him an instant rotational option as a pass rusher. I don't necessarily like my depth outside, so I'll roll the dice on another rusher whose physical attributes alone are deserving of making an active roster.
Pick #239: Ryan Izzo, TE, Florida State
I graded Ryan Izzo as the third-best blocking Tight End in the draft, and he's still on the board at #239. Jimmy Graham and Lance Kendricks are the only two Tight ends with guaranteed roster spots, and neither of them are great blockers. Izzo is an immediate TE3 who could potentially contribute on special teams as well.
Pick #248: Tanner Carew, LS, Oregon
I didn't have a problem with Green Bay taking Hunter Bradley for Long Snapper, but NFL.com said Carew was the only Long Snapper deserving of an actual draft-worthy grade. Knowing nothing about the position, I'll take it.
So, in Summary:
CB Jaire Alexander
OLB Lorenzo Carter
S Ronnie Harrison
T/G Tyrell Crosby
WR Deon Cain
P JK Scott
QB Luke Falk
WR Equanimous St. Brown
OLB Jeff Holland
TE Ryan Izzo
LS Tanner Carew
Now THAT is a draft class.
