Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks - Tuesday, July 25
Welcome back to another installment of my new article series going over some of my top picks for daily fantasy baseball. I will include the two pitchers I have the most exposure to and my top teams to stack in GPP's. On Thursday's and Friday's you can find my main position by position article along with my top stacks and pitchers over at Daily Fantasy Sports Rankings. You can also join me in the chatroom over at DFSR everyday leading up to lineup lock. Don't forget to grab a FREE copy of my starting pitcher cheatsheet that I post daily. The link can be found throughout the article. Good luck everyone, let's get into tonight's action.
Tuesday brings almost a full slate of games as there is just one afternoon contest featuring a crosstown rivalry between the Cubs and White Sox. The 14-game main slate features four inter-league games and some interesting pitching options. Madison Bumgarner is the big name on the board tonight but is just two starts removed from a three-month stint on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. There is definitely risk there as he has struggled in his return allowing four home runs but the price is right on DraftKings if you wanted to take a shot. Other than Bumgarner, who is most likely chalk, here are a couple other options to consider.
Starting Pitcher
Charlie Morton (DK-$8,800 / FD-$8,600) - Don't get me wrong, there is a ton of risk here as well as Morton has given up four earned runs in each of his last two starts. When it comes to risk, however, I would rather take the savings and roll with Morton who gets and elite matchup. The Phillies have scored the second fewest runs(389) in the entire league this season and rank 26th in wOBA(.306), 28th in wRC+, and strike out the 6th most(23.5%) vs. right-handed pitching. Morton has also been dominant against lefty heavy lineups(.265 wOBA, 10.9 K/9 vs. LH / .377 wOBA, 8.9 K/9 vs. RH) and if the Phillies ignore the splits, this would be an elite matchup as there could be 4-5 LH bats in the lineup tonight(switch hitters included). In the mid $8K range, I will have lots of exposure tonight.
Jon Gray (DK-$9,000 / FD-$6,900) - You are not going to avoid risk tonight in pitching so you might as well grab some upside at a discount. This is especially true on FanDuel where Gray comes in under $7K tonight. He has a lot going for him when you start breaking down the splits as his ERA(3.71) is close to 5.5 runs better on the road away from Coors and the same goes for the K rate(11.4 K/9 on road, 6.9 K/9 at home). Breaking it down even further, he has given up a .404 wOBA to lefties but just a .301 wOBA to righties and the Cards lineup doesn't appear to have more than two(that I am worried about) starting tonight(Carpenter, Fowler). The Rockies are currently slight underdogs which could keep a lot of people away making him a high upside/possible low owned GPP play.
Stacks of the Night
Miami Marlins vs. Cole Hamels (TEX)
Hamels has been shaky since returning to the rotation with the Rangers. He was blown up in his first start for seven earned runs and although he only allowed two earned runs in his next three starts, it appeared he was quite lucky running a sub .200 BABIP in all of them. That held true in his last start as the Orioles blasted him for nine hits and seven earned runs(3 HR). Since returning he has given up a 40.6% hard contact rate to opponents and sits with a 4.68 xFIP in that time.
Players to Target - Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Marcel Ozuna
Baltimore Orioles vs. Jacob Faria (TB)
I am going a bit off the board tonight with my second stack. Faria has looked good in his rookie season and holds a 2.52 ERA and 8.1 K/9 rate through eight starts. The 4.45 xFIP, however, suggests he is due for regression and it appeared to start in his last start where he gave up six hits and four earned runs to the A's in Oakland. He has lost a bit of control lately and has walked four batters in two of his last three starts. The Orioles are underdogs here and sit in the bottom half of implied runs but I think this only helps you get them at a very low ownership and the upside cannot be denied. Over the last seven days, only one team has hit more home runs than the O's 12 and we all know HR are king.
Players to Stack - Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop
Thanks again for reading and be sure to check out the FREE three-day trial that DFSR has going on for the rest of the MLB season. They have projections, Player Lab, and a Lineup Optimizer that allows you to custom make up to 25 exportable lineups.
LINK TO THE DAILY STARTING PITCHER CHEATSHEET
