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Ten games apiece remain for the six North and Central American combatants looking to reach Moscow in June 2018 for the FIFA World Cup Finals. The United States will meet Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras, Panama, and Trinidad and Tobago in the last stage of qualification known as the Hexagonal. Since March 2015, we’ve seen 81 official matches spanning 35 territories and 36 cities, all combining for a total of 242 goals. A minimum of three spots are up for grabs - the fourth placed will advance to a playoff versus an Asian side.
Another Page in the USA-Mexico Rivalry
Mexico arrives in Columbus, Ohio today for what most likely is Team USA’s second-most challenging match of the Hex. Using a 750-observation multivariate Poisson model built from recent qualification matches and a host of team-specific and match-specific predictors, here’s some potential outcomes for what will be an especially fierce duel between the neighbors opposite the Rio Grande.
Armed with the likes of Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez and Giovanni dos Santos, Mexico holds a slight edge over the hosts, an 8 percentage point advantage over the U.S. in win probability. The U.S. will see the familiar Tim Howard in net, along with some of the core veterans (Bradley, Jones, Altidore) to support the Bundesliga prodigies of Pulisic and Wood. The last competitive US-Mexico match in October 2015 ended 3-2 for Mexico, while the last World Cup qualifier in September 2013 resulted in a W for the Americans at home.
Panama Searches for 3 Key Points in Honduras
The Honduras aren't quit what they were three years ago during Brazil qualification. Twenty places worse and with a couple of less-than-impressive results (drawing to El Salvador and losing to Canada) last round, Panama will see the match in San Pedro Sula as an opportunity to pick up three points in their quest to qualify for their first World Cup appearance. Their last competitive meeting in July 2015 ended all square at 1-1.
Costa Rica Kicks off in Port of Spain
Trinidad and Tobago gave the United States a run for their money in the previous round of qualification, leading the group even on the final match-day. Today, veteran captain Kenwyne Jones will look to propel his island nation to a rather impressive second World Cup appearance (their last came in 2006). But a visiting Costa Rican side – ranked in the top 20 in the World Football Elo Ratings – will likely prove too much to handle.
USA-MEX – the focus of today’s CONCACAF action- will kick off at 8:00 Eastern. Who do you think will win? Have your say at @Upper90Stats on Twitter or below.
