Why I think the Badgers can go 10-2
(UPDATE) I'm sure all 26 of you who read this probably thought I was foolish. Preseason Big Ten predictions had the Badgers anywhere from second to fifth in the West (FIFTH!) and now they are a win away from the Big Ten Title Game. If they beat Minnesota, they will sweep the West division, go 10-2 like I mostly predicted, and have a shot at the College Football Playoff. I was right about LSU, I was right about winning one game in Michigan (just the wrong city), and I was almost right about the Ohio State game, which they made up for in Iowa. I was right about LSU not being as good anymore, and I was right about the Northwestern game being potentially dangerous. I also overestimated Iowa this season, and had the Badgers second in the West. All in all, this was by far my best prediction of my blog so far, and this was originally written June 23rd. The Badgers are one win away from me being right, and if I'm wrong, it's because nobody had foreseen a home loss to the Gophers, then or now.
(ORIGINAL ARTICLE) This is a much better team than people realize. They have a top level defense, an offensive line that is a year older, and Corey Clement for a full season (plus, no more Stave!). So why is everybody selling this team short? The schedule. It's brutal, I know, but we also tend to forget about one of the most important concepts in sports: Mind over Matter. I'm not saying that believing will guarantee a 10-2 record, but it helps. Here's what I think COULD reasonably happen to the Badgers in 2016.
Week 1-LSU in Lambeau. I know, it's the Dave Aranda Bowl. And the defense won't be the same without him, blah blah blah. But why? Most of the same players are there, and the scheme is similar. And they almost beat LSU in Houston 2 seasons ago. LSU isn't the scary animal anymore that was #1 in the country, and if any team is built to contain Leonard Fournette outside the SEC, it's the Badgers. The front seven is one of the best in the country, and the ball control tempo keeps him off the field. Plus, we know Aranda just as much as he knows us.
Week 2 & 3-Akron and Georgia State in Camp Randall. I don't know about these teams, and I don't care to know about them. The Badgers should win these, to go to 3-0 heading into East Lansing.
Week 4-at Michigan State. Michigan State is not as good as they were last year, but I still will give this one to Sparty. It will be a close, dog fight game as that's how both of these teams play, but Michigan State should have the upper hand here. The good news is, it will give Wisconsin experience for...
Week 5-at Michigan. I have the Badgers winning this one for three reasons. 1) They have way more experience against quality teams at this point in the season than Michigan, and the close game at East Lansing will provide the Badgers with an edge to get over Michigan. 2) Michigan's biggest defensive strength is the secondary, but what's the point of having that as a strength if the Badgers don't have a passing game? The lack of passing game could make Michigan's secondary irrelevant. 3) I think Michigan overachieved last season, and it may be time for a little bit of a step back before Jim Harbaugh's third year. I predict the Badgers go 4-1 heading into the bye.
Week 7-Ohio State in Camp Randall. Coming off an upset against Michigan, the Badgers keep it rolling at home against an Ohio State team that is still tough, but also lost 10 players in the top 3 rounds of the draft. I realize JT Barrett is still there, but I also realize that Camp Randall stadium can do wonders for the Badgers. Look at the matchup in October, 2010, when Ohio State was #1.
Week 8-at Iowa. This is where the luck runs out. The Badgers aren't built to be a national title contender, and I'm not fooled that they are one just because I think the can win 3 out of 5 against high level competition. I think the Michigan and Ohio State wins could wear out the Badgers, where Iowa's toughest game this far might be FCS champion North Dakota State. But still, it's FCS, and there's no Carson Wentz. Iowa hasn't done anything yet, where the Badgers have played more tough games in the first six weeks than they had schedule the past two seasons.
I think the Badgers could feasibly run the table from here on out, with a potential danger zone at Northwestern. But, Northwestern is not in the same class as LSU, Iowa, Ohio State or the Michigan's, so if the Badgers can go 3-2 against those teams, they can beat Northwestern. Minnesota, Nebraska and Illinois are at home, and lowly Purdue is their only other road game. Iowa's easier schedule (and head to head victory) prevents the Badgers from winning the Big Ten West, but it still allows a high level bowl game.
