Call Me a Skeptic

If you want to win in the NFL, you need a franchise-caliber quarterback. It’s that simple. Yes, there have been certain exceptions; look at the 2000 Baltimore Ravens led by Trent Dilfer, or the Broncos from just a few seasons ago, who were led by a washed-up Peyton Manning. But by and large, to win at the highest level in the NFL you need a capable quarterback. That is why the 2018 draft class is so tantalizing. There are three “elite” prospects at the quarterback position that could enter the 2018 NFL Draft: Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, and Josh Rosen. This provides teams such as the 49ers, Jets, Cardinals, etc. with hope for their future at the position. But in searching for the next quarterbacks in the Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers lineage, I think often times collegiate quarterbacks are severely overrated. Why? Because it’s NFL executives wishful thinking.

Let’s look at Josh Allen. He is 6’5” 235 pounds. Same build as Joe Flacco and as elusive as Ben Roethlisberger; at least that’s what the scouts say. What I have seen is a quarterback who is severely overmatched against superior competition. In two games this season against power five schools he has thrown for a total of 238 yards and three interceptions. No touchdowns for the heralded prospect. Now if you ask me, the defenses he will be facing on Sundays are a hell of a lot tougher than the Iowa Hawkeyes or the Oregon Ducks.

What about Sam Darnold? He has been anointed “The Chosen One” yet has only started 13 games! So far this season, the USC quarterback has thrown six interceptions in three games. Not only aren’t his numbers great, but his delivery might be even worse. He deploys a full wind-up that takes entirely too much time to deliver the ball to his receivers. Darnold certainly has potential, but he needs more experience and to improve his decision making before such declarations are made that he should be the number one pick in the 2018 Draft.

Of these three quarterbacks, the one that I am intrigued by the most is Josh Rosen. He is smooth, accurate, and calm under pressure. He is, in my estimation, the best pure passer of the trio, but he too has his flaws. His decision-making is questionable at best. This weekend in a game against Memphis, the UCLA quarterback cost his team a victory by throwing two interceptions that came as a result of terrible decision-making. In one instance, he scrambled right and then threw all of the way across the field and in the other instance he threw a jump-ball into triple coverage.

I am not saying these quarterbacks will not play at the next level; they will. I am just saying that it is way premature to declare that these three quarterbacks will be franchise-revivers. While they certainly have potential, I would feel more confident in saying that none of them will excel in the NFL than all three blossoming into franchise quarterbacks.