A Look Ahead At the NL West, 2017
The National League West, where you pretty much truly have a dynamic group of teams, from different strategies of how to win games, different ballpark layouts, and just different ways on how to go about their off-season moves. The West pretty much has that "The Good (Giants & Dodgers), the Bad (the Rockies), and the Ugly (Padres & Diamondbacks).
Last year the Dodgers won the NL West for the 4th straight year with San Francisco right behind them. Both teams winded up making the playoffs as SF won their Wild Card game against the Mets and the Dodgers escaped the Nationals and went to the NLCS where they would fall to the eventual world champion Cubs. The Rockies were the Rockies, blasting the ball out of the park like they only can while their pitching was not up to snuff. The Padres are back into rebuild mode as the farm was roughed up and moved highly paid players who weren't performing to their high paying standards (Shields, Kemp), but have a gem in Wil Myers. And the Diamondbacks, as some are fearing, made a disastrous trade that could affect the franchise for years as they traded away their #1 pick in Dansby Swanson along with Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair for Shelby Miller (whom ultimately got sent down to Reno for underachieving) as Arizona fell into a nightmarish season despite having Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Grienke (who didn't perform to his standard either). So let's take a look at the NL West, according to where I think they will be in the standings in 2017.
1. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Key additions: P Mark Melancon (FA/Washington), C Nick Hundley (FA/Colorado), P Tim Federowicz (FA/Chicago Cubs), C Josmil Pinto (FA/Milwaukee), OF Mike Morse (FA/Pittsburgh), SS Jimmy Rollins (FA/Chicago White Sox), OF Justin Ruggiano (FA/New York Mets)
Key losses: OF Angel Pagan (FA), P Sergio Romo (FA/Los Angeles Dodgers), P Santiago Casilla (FA/Oakland), P Javier Lopez (retired), P Chris Heston (Trade/Seattle), P Jake Peavy (FA), OF Gregor Blanco (FA/Arizona)
Player to watch: Hunter Pence. Seems like every year the Giants offense goes with Pence. If he's playing, he's hitting the ball, which means San Francisco's offense is clicking and nearly unstoppable. If he is dinged up (which he has been having that issue for the last couple of years), the Giants offense sputters. He needs to stay healthy in order for the Giants to be back in the thick of a world championship.
2017 Outlook: The Giants did some overhauls to the lineup that has bee primarily untouched for a good while, notably in the bullpen and in the outfield. And it was time for those overhauls. While the likes of Romo, Casilla, and Lopez served their relief roles very well especially in the years of the World Series victories, it was evident they were not the same pitchers (though Romo pitched decent in his time despite missing 2 months of the season). Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco are gone, but while Pagan had a good season for the Giants last year, it leaves a void that they tried to replace by trying to get either Ryan Braun or JD Martinez, but came up empty as the Brewers and Tigers wanted more. The Brandon Belt experiment in LF hasn't really worked (and doing it means to get Posey out of catching for good and put him at first and he isn't probably fast enough to play in the outfield). But it isn't a horrible problem to have as both are still quality players right now. The Giants rotation looks to be one of the strongest in baseball and maybe in the NL, even over the Cubs and Nationals with Bumgarner, Cueto, and Samardzija, and having Matt Moore & Matt Cain round out is pretty stout (though Cain isn't what he once was). It is the bullpen that needs work. Hence why the three mainstays of Romo, Casilla, and Lopez are no longer there. The big move was signing Mark Melancon to a massive deal in the off-season (4 years, $62 mil) so the closer role should at least be solidified. But now the workload is now really put on the likes of Derek Law, Hunter Strickland, George Kontos. They should improve and net them the division title in the West. The offense, when healthy, is formidable (despite the highest HR guy was Belt with 17), but will need to answer voids in 3B and LF. So I expect the Giants to net somebody by the deadline, though given the farm, they will probably need a 3rd team involved if they want Braun, Martinez, or perhaps Evan Longoria.
My Projection: 93-69
2. LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Key Additions: 2B Logan Forsythe (Trade/Tampa Bay), OF Darnell Sweeney (Trade/Philadelphia), C Bobby Wilson (FA/Texas), OF Brett Eibner (Trade/Oakland), P Brandon Morrow (FA/San Diego), P Sergio Romo (FA/San Francisco), OF Tyler Holt (FA/Cincinnati), P Steven Geltz (FA/Tampa Bay)
Key Losses: P Jose De Leon (Trade/Tampa Bay), 2B/LF Howie Kendrick (Trade/Philadelphia), P Joe Blanton (FA/Washington), OF Josh Reddick (FA/Houston), C Carlos Ruiz (Trade/Seattle), P Brett Anderson (FA/Chicago Cubs), P J.P. Howell (FA/Toronto), P Jesse Chavez (FA/Los Angeles Angels), P Carlos Frias (Trade/Cleveland)
Player to Watch: Yasiel Puig. Puig came into the bigs with a head full of fire and when we looked at some of the best young MLB players 4 years ago, we included Puig with Trout, Harper, and Machado. However, with maturity issues and emotion issues coming to play, Puig has really fallen off. He has got to have a big year for the Dodgers or else he will either ride the pine or be traded for pretty much little value. Seems like the Brewers don't necessarily want to take him in a deal involving Ryan Braun.
2017 Outlook: Similar to the Giants, the Dodgers made a huge push to get some bats in the lineup for 2017 and tried for Braun and JD Martinez, but were rejected. The Dodgers also tried to make a push for Ian Kinsler, but backed off when Kinsler wanted an extension (so they opted to trade for Logan Forsythe). But they also need a bat, especially in LF, with right now Andrew Toles being the Opening Day starter. It isn't just a void in LF, the Dodgers need to have the Yasiel Puig from 2013 and who could rake. Of course, we can talk all day about Puig's issues and injury issues, but the Dodgers are a far different offense when he is raking. The irony is, Los Angeles has a pretty decent offense with Pederson, Seager, and Turner leading the way as well as Yasmani Grandal put up big numbers as well. The problem of all things is the Dodgers starting rotation. There is plenty of quantity of decent starters that isn't named Clayton Kershaw, but nothing that resembles a strong #2 or #3 behind him (maybe Rich Hill fits the bill). They're hoping Scott Kazmir looks like the Kazmir we've seen the last few years and not 2016 where he de-railed. But Julio Urias will have to step up. The bullpen should be fine with the addition of Sergio Romo and keeping Jansen in the mix. So that is where they may have an edge over the Giants. But is it going to be can they match up with San Francisco with the pitching?
My Projection: 90-72
3. COLORADO ROCKIES
Key Additions: 1B/OF Ian Desmond (FA/Texas), P Greg Holland (FA/Kansas City), P Mike Dunn (FA/Miami), Alexi Armarista (FA/San Diego), Chris Denorfia (FA), 2B Daniel Castro (FA/Atlanta)
Key Losses: P Boone Logan (FA/Cleveland), C Nick Hundley (FA San Francisco), P Jorge De La Rosa (FA/Arizona), IF Daniel Descalso (FA/Arizona), OF Ryan Raburn (FA/Cincinnati), Eddie Butler (Trade/Chicago Cubs)
Player to Watch: Ian Desmond. The Rockies threw a lot of money (and caution to the wind) on Desmond, adding more power to a powerful lineup with Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez. Desmond had a huge year in Texas after really crashing in Washington. He is playing in Colorado so the numbers may help. However, if he falls back especially on the road, people will think he is a typical player who plays big on a contract year only to crash and burn after that.
2017 Outlook: Well, the Rockies have pretty much said this off-season is they aren't going to focus on their weakness (pitching) but strengthen their strength by adding Ian Desmond, who had a pretty good year for Texas in 2016. So the Rockies if anything will be more inclined to go for those 9-8 games, which was their calling card in the mid-90's when the Blake Street Bombers made their presence known. So the offense is going to be one of the best ones in the NL with the likes of Desmond, Arenado, Story, Blackmon, Gonzalez, etc. But the issue is they lost their best reliever in Boone Logan so that stings. Add on top, the best pitcher in the rotation is Tyler Chatwood, so that doesn't bode well. That said, the rotation is young, so they could show signs of improvement. They need to to help out the offense. If they don't, the Rockies offense, for as good as they are, will not be enough to win the NL West.
My Projection: 81-81
4. SAN DIEGO PADRES
Key Additions: P Trevor Cahll (FA/Chicago Cubs), P Jhoulys Chacin (FA/Los Angeles Angels), P Tyrell Jenkins (Waivers/Atlanta), OF Rafael Ortega (FA/Los Angeles Angels), P Jered Weaver (FA/Los Angeles Angels)
Key Losses: P Tyson Ross (FA/Texas), C Derek Norris (Trade/Washington), IF Adam Rosales (FA/Oakland), OF Jon Jay (FA/Chicago Cubs), SS Alexi Armarista (FA/Colorado), OF Oswaldo Arcia (FA/Arizona), P Edwin Jackson (FA), P Brandon Morrow (FA/Los Angeles Dodgers)
Player to Watch: Yangervis Solarte. While Myers probably needs to silence critics on his struggles in the 2nd half of 2016, Solarte needs to remain consistent (.286 Avg, 15 HR and an .808 OPS last year while playing in Petco Park). If San Diego expects to contend any, they will need to have offense. And for the most part, they did in 2016, but it was the pitching that let them down. If the offense doesn't repeat in 2017, the Padres could have a very long season. And it begins with Solarte.
2017 Outlook: For once, the Padres fell apart not because of their offense (though it remains inconsistent), but their staple of quality pitching went out the window. Either the Opening Day starter is Clayton Richard or Jered Weaver, so that tells you where the Padres are with that. So the pitching needs to improve greatly, but again, like the Rockies, the Padres have a young assortment of arms outside of Richard and Weaver. And they are playing in a pitcher-friendly park so it should help if they use that park to their advantage. The offense is led by Wil Myers, who had a strong first half but waned big time in the second half. I do think Myers will be more of first half Myers than 2nd half Myers this year. If Solarte and Alex Dickerson continue their improvements with the bat as well as if Hunter Renfroe shows he's the real deal, then San Diego will be a far better team than 2016. But there's still plenty of work to do with the Padres.
My Projection: 70-92
5. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Key Additions: P Taijuan Walker (Trade/Seattle), P Fernando Rodney (FA/Miami), SS Ketel Marte (Trade/Seattle), C Chris Iannetta (FA/Seattle), C Jeff Mathis (FA/Miami), OF Gregor Blanco (FA/San Francisco), OF Jeremy Hazelbaker (FA/St. Louis), OF Oswaldo Arcia (FA/San Diego), J.J. Hoover (FA/Cincinnati), P Jorge De La Rosa (FA/Colorado),
Key Losses: SS Jean Segura (Trade/Seattle), C Welington Castillo (FA/Baltimore), P Daniel Hudson (FA/Pittsburgh), C Tuffy Gosewisch (Waivers), 2B Rickie Weeks (FA/Tampa Bay), OF Mitch Haniger (Trade/Seattle),
Player to Watch: Shelby Miller. It is no secret he is going to be under the microscope as the D'backs gave up TWO cornerstone pieces in Swanson and Inciarte. If he fizzles, the Diamondbacks are going to remain in a world of pain. If he pitches well, he will be a great compliment to Greinke (who needs a rebound year himself).
2017 Outlook: Maybe I am a bit harsh with this view, but I think when all is said & done, the Shelby Miller/Dansby Swanson trade will go down as the most lopsided trade in baseball history, but what made it worse obviously was adding in Ender Inciarte on top of it. Anyway, I think a trade like that really sets a franchise back for at least a few years. I get Arizona really was plagued with the injury bug, especially when A.J. Pollock was out for pretty much the entire season, and Nick Ahmed missing time (and when he was, he was not doing much at the plate). But outside of the names Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas and Jake Lamb (29 HR), the Diamondbacks underachieved all throughout the roster. It really struggled with the rotation, which was headed by Zack Greinke, who was as steady as they come. But last year, he was a giant mess. But he was still their best pitcher as the other guys in the rotation (Miller, Archie Bradley, Robbie Ray, and Patrick Corbin all had ERA's near 5 or higher). Hence, why Arizona ran out and traded for Taijuan Walker from Seattle. However, it may be buyer beware in that (though his numbers were better than any Diamondback starter there, even Greinke) as he had a 4.22 ERA and that was in Seattle. So they at least tried to upgrade that, but I don't think it will matter. Add on top is that I don't believe Jake Lamb will match the numbers he did last year at all. There are a few pieces in place with the lineup, but not enough in my eyes to off-set the mess in the rotation Arizona has. Potentially the level of talent is somewhat there for Arizona, but the issue is they have to reach that talent and they haven't done it. Honestly, they probably should consider wiping the slate clean, trading the likes of Greinke and at least consider entertaining offers for Goldschmidt just to see how they can improve the farm, which is one of the worst in baseball. They have to because I don't see this team really being a serious contender for anything in the foreseeable future.
My Projection: 66-96
5 QUESTIONS TO THINK ABOUT IN THE NL WEST:
Braun could be wearing Dodger blue by August
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
1. Which team will net that needed bat first, the Giants or Dodgers? Dodgers. The Giants farm system is iffy as well, so they would have to possibly get a 3rd team involved in a trade to net somebody like Ryan Braun. Los Angeles has some chips to use to get the bat they need. So it could be Ryan Braun, Khris Davis, or even Lorenzo Cain that the Dodgers could get by the deadline.
If Greinke can rebound from a horrid 2016, then Diamondbacks have a shot at being a bit better than many expect them to be.
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
2. Which team could actually surprise among Colorado, San Diego, or Arizona? The team with the most talent level overall is Arizona. I get Colorado has the powerful offense and they will come to fruition like they always do, but the Rockies pitching has always been their Achilles heel since the days of Kevin Ritz. So if the Diamondbacks pitching shows legit improvement, then they could possibly be a team that will play meaningful games in August and September. That said, they have underachieved for a while. San Diego is probably a year or two away from being an actual threat.
Many people griped at Colorado for getting Desmond when they needed more pitching.
Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
3. People dogged the Rockies for the Desmond signing. Is it valid to rip them for it? Perhaps, but Colorado has tried to upgrade the rotation time after time, going back to sign the likes of Darryl Kile and Mike Hampton, but failed miserably. Their most successful pitchers, have been the home-grown products like Ubaldo Jimenez, Jhoulys Chacin, Jeff Francis, and Aaron Cook. If you hold around a 4 ERA in Colorado, it may be an equivalent to a 3 anywhere else, which is fine. And if you remember the Rockies in the mid-90's, they ran out and got Larry Walker. And Colorado really used that to jolt them. It gave them mixed results, but at least they were very competitive.
Trading Goldschmidt alongside Greinke could change the Diamondbacks farm system completely.
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
4. Would the Diamondbacks be wise trading Goldschmidt within the next year or two? Yes. Their farm system is horrible and some rank it 32nd. I'm never one to see a team fold tent in April or fold tent for the year after by doing a fire sale, but the Diamondbacks could really set themselves up for great things if they improve the farm. I think Greinke needs to be traded. It isn't really working out for him in Arizona and the Diamondbacks likely won't be playing meaningful September games this year despite the potential they have, so if you can talk to a team who probably could use a top notch arm like Houston, Miami, or even the Yankees, you know what will come back to you is going to be high quality return. And for somebody like Goldschmidt? You could pretty much plunder a great farm system for. Will it make things worse for ticket sales in Arizona? Yes and we can see what is happening in Atlanta with that, but 2 or 3 years down the road, it may be a very different story. But then again, the Diamondbacks and the city of Phoenix are battling back and forth about the stadium issue. It may not be feasible.
How can this be a place you WANT to avoid?
5. Is San Diego the new place Major League players want to avoid? Seems that way. Of all the places, you'd think San Diego is #1 with the climate being near perfect in the summer months and a laid-back atmosphere. Nope. But ever since the Padres opened Petco Park, it has ruined hitters careers when they have played there for the Padres (Giles, Quentin, Klesko, etc.). Adding on, the Padres until recently hadn't pushed in the walls unlike Detroit or the Mets, who realized their parks were huge and pushed them in early on. It will have to take probably a lot of things to happen right for the Padres to really be a hot spot for MLB players during the season. But it is probably a vibe of the front office isn't really paying attention to the needs of players OR the fans for that matter.
That's it for the NL West. Next week, the AL East.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat.
