A Look Back at the Big Ten, 2016
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The Big Ten, throughout most of the regular season was considered the best conference of college football with Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin leading the way.......until Bowl Season when the conference could only muster 3 wins out of 9, including seeing Ohio State controversially making the playoff (by not winning the conference while Penn State had and beaten Ohio State) and getting flatlined by Clemson 31-0. While many thought the Big Ten was more hype than anything, one cannot deny the conference, where it seemed to be in a major lull the last few years, is back.
Many thought Ohio State did not belong in the playoff in 2016 for not winning their conference outright.
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There were many big stories out of the Big Ten this year, mostly in the East. Penn State, after finally getting out of the mess from the Jerry Sandusky scandal, returned to their old form and went 10-2, including beating Ohio State en route to the East Division title, and ultimately beating Wisconsin for the Big Ten championship. But it was Ohio State, whose only blemish was the Penn State loss, went to the playoff over the Nittany Lions. Michigan, who had been dominant all season and many considered to be a playoff favorite as well, fell apart in the final 3 weeks of the season, losing road games in Iowa and the heartbreaker in Columbus while scuffling against an underachieving Indiana squad. Maryland rebounded a bit under DJ Durkin, sneaking into a bowl game after being completely miserable under Randy Edsall and has given the Terps hope for a future. Indiana started off fast, but fell apart down the stretch to what I believed was an underachieving season. Speaking of underachieving, the prior Big Ten champ, Michigan State, fell apart tremendously, going 3-9 as they played uncharacteristically poor mistake-laden football all season. As for Rutgers, the Knights may have replaced Kansas as the worst college football program among the Power 5 Conferences.
Wisconsin returned to their old form in 2016, dominating all teams not named Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State.
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In the West, Wisconsin re-claimed the top spot, returning to their physical defense and a strong running game that netted them multi conference championships pre-2013. The Badgers leaped in front of Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota in the standings. Nebraska may have had their best season since joining the Big Ten, but fell apart down the stretch with injuries to Tommy Armstrong and having a rough schedule down the stretch with Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa. Iowa, to nobody's surprise, fell back as they got off to a sluggish start, but turned it on near the end, taking down Michigan and Nebraska, ultimately spoiling both teams' chances of either a conference title or a division title. Minnesota had a strong defense, but struggled with consistency and had some internal issues that ultimately got Tracy Claeys fired. Northwestern fell back as well and struggled to get to a bowl game. Illinois had their moments under new coach Lovie Smith, but it is still a rebuilding process while Purdue remained a giant mess as they fired Darell Hazell midway through the season.
So it is now time to look back and see what my predictions of the Big Ten were in 2016 when I did this in July/August.
I did a bad job of predicting the Big Ten if Maryland making a bowl game was my biggest win.
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WHAT I GOT RIGHT? Only two things and they are not even close to being major. Maryland getting back to a bowl game and Purdue stinking.
Penn State winning the conference while Michigan State crashed in 2016 were two epic fails on my part.
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WHAT I GOT WRONG? How about what I REALLY got wrong! I had Michigan State being 9-3, even 10-2 this year just because of the Dantonio factor. Maybe is because I am biased and love Michigan State, but I failed to realize there was a big turnover rate of seniors to underclassmen and the ones who were the seniors led poorly and made a lot of freshman-like mistakes on the field. It isn't any wonder that Sparty went from fighting Alabama for a half of the playoff game to getting beaten by the likes of Illinois, Maryland, and Indiana in the regular season. Other things I failed on were Penn State taking the Big Ten crown, Wisconsin winning the west, Nebraska being somewhat more legit than I thought, and Iowa & Northwestern falling back as well as Minnesota not being bad at all (at least on the field).
TOP 5 QUESTIONS TO LOOK IN THE BIG TEN HEADING IN 2017
Michigan needs to get a W against Ohio State soon.
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1. Can Michigan unseat Ohio State and win the division? Yes, but they will be missing more than a few key players. But Ohio State hasn't been the same since their national championship year as the offense has struggled to find any consistency. And the game is in Ann Arbor. But it may not mean much if Penn State continues to roll.
The Lions will need to have big performances again from Trace McSorley to win the conference for the second straight year.
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2. Can Penn State repeat? This is a fairly young group and they get Michigan in Happy Valley. Of course, the key game will be the roadie in Ohio State, who will be looking for major revenge. But they have the tools to also steal a win in Columbus and aren't afraid of the Buckeyes. So it is a pretty good shot that the Nittany Lions can stay in front of the conference for a while.
Wisconsin seems to be the best shot in the West, but not many give them a great chance at dethroning the teams in the East.
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3. Is there anybody in the Big Ten West that can TRULY contend for a playoff spot? We love to point to Wisconsin as it is really the default option in the Big Ten West, but they also have had issues winning those big games, which has plagued them from being in the national championship discussion for the last 15 seasons. Nebraska is going through the same thing. And many feel Iowa's style of play wouldn't work against the national powers. It didn't work against Florida in the Outback Bowl either. So you're 3 major contenders still remain in the East, so the answer to this question is "no."
Michigan State's struggles in 2016 was shocking to all, but it was mostly self-inflicted.
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4. Is Michigan State's abysmal 2016 season an aberration or a sign of things to come? Aberration. Mark Dantonio is too good of a coach to repeat another awful year like he had. And as I mentioned, the loss of seniors from the 2015 squad really stung the program, especially on the offensive side. The defense was actually not too bad last year so they can build off of that. But the offense has been hit or miss for the past 5 seasons in East Lansing. They need to hit to get back into the mix of the Big Ten East race.
There's high hopes for Minnesota in the future under Fleck.
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5. Will PJ Fleck get the Golden Gophers rolling right away? It is possible. He's already recruiting well in Minnesota albeit at a disadvantage and the guy can coach. Let's be clear on that. Now will he win the West in 2017? Probably not, but they could be a force to be reckoned with in 2018 or 2019. The biggest thing is trying to establish an offense that has prevented the Gophers from being an actual threat in the Big Ten.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
