Analyzing Lonzo Ball's NBA Decision
Immediately after the UCLA Bruins 2016-2017 basketball season ended with a disappointing thud, losing decisively to a better Kentucky squad all-around, Lonzo Ball declared for the NBA Draft. And nobody was surprised.
Currently, many view Ball as a top 3 pick, if not the #1 pick, especially leading into tonight's Sweet Sixteen match-up against Kentucky.
So, after a pedestrian-like 10 points on 4 of 10 shooting (including 1-6 from 3, including some questionable shot choices in the 2nd half), 8 assists, and 4 turnovers, some wondered if Kentucky exposed some weaknesses in Lonzo's game. So, is he still a top pick in the NBA Draft? Well, yeah.
It's just that now there are some glaring questions to Ball's game.
Let's start with some of what he brings.
1. His vision is 2nd to none. What I liked, even in the Kentucky game, was how he could see the floor. When he is pushing the ball up and finding players for easy two points, alley-oops, etc. In this case, he is one of the best passers college basketball has seen in a long time.
2. He is calm. Ball, even when he isn't on top of his game such as tonight, does not show a whole lot of emotion and does not get rattled. A big bonus for somebody who is looking for a point guard that can remain cool.
3. He's athletic. You saw it against Cincinnati and you saw what he did in the PAC-12 this year. He is underrated in this category and has a great jump and speed, when he wants to use it.
4. When the shot selection is top notch, he is a quality 3-point shooter. 42% from beyond the arc. Pretty good if you ask me.
5. He is great at driving to the basket. 55% with field goals. So in terms of the two types of offenses everybody loves, he can do that.
6. Makes players around him better. This is a key attribute that gets lost. While I believe UCLA didn't have the same kind of talent as Kentucky (who does?), Ball has a knack of getting all guys involved in the offense, which helped the likes of TJ Leaf, Bryce Alford, Isaac Hamilton, Aaron Holiday, and Thomas Welsh all benefited from Ball. And he knows how to win.
7. He can rebound. 6.1 boards per game. From a point guard. A 6-6 point guard. That will easily help with transition plays in the NBA for sure.
But here are some things I would hesitate to go after Ball and instead take my chances with Markelle Fultz. from Washington.
1. Defensive issues. Ball lacks defensive fundamentals in terms of going against point guards (i.e. not sliding when he is facing the opposing ball-handler (whether that is a point guard or shooting guard). He also gets caught out to dry when his assignment reverses direction, something that could be a huge problem when it comes to the NBA. Is he the worst defender around? Absolutely not, but facing agianst the likes of Kyrie Irving, John Wall, or Russell Westbrook, he will have his work cut out for him and become a liability. And when he faced De'Aaron Fox twice this year, Fox averaged nearly 30 on UCLA. Did Ball guard him the entire time? Not entirely, but he saw his share of match-ups with him that Fox easily won. Also, look at some of the other point guards: Kobi Simmons (Arizona) put up 20 against UCLA, Payton Pritchard (Oregon) went for 15 and 9 assists, Zak Irvin (Michigan) went for 18 and 7 assists. Again, Ball wasn't on them ALL the time, but still, a concern.
2. Fundamentals be damned. Odd shooting form, really either a layup or 3-pointer (nothing in between), not sliding on defense, and some other issues. Again, not everybody has to be completely fundamental, but I think in the NBA those issues that he has, could be very exposed, especially by other top point guards.
3. 6-6 and 190 soaking wet. My first reaction when I saw Ball at UCLA was, "man, this guy is skinny." With some other point guards in the NBA: John Wall is 6-4 and 210, Westbrook at 6-3, 200. Kyrie Irving is at 6-3 and 193. Having that frame in college, you can get away with, but in the NBA, he could get easily pushed around with it.
4. Not the best when it comes to playing from behind. In 4 of the 5 losses, Ball shot under 50% from the field. In their loss to USC he committed 7 turnovers. In the championship game vs. Arizona he shot 2 of 7 as 6 of the attempts were from beyond the arc. A few things I noticed with him was that he took poor shot choices in the 2nd half agianst Kentucky, including throwing a listless one as the game was getting out of reach He also at times looked like his mind was elsewhere, walking around on the court even when there was a Kentucky player near him. He just seemed like he clocked out.
So those are a few things that I would say "buyer beware."
I did not put in his dad as a negative. Not really because of the nonsensical things he says, but in part because he will have to leave well enough alone the minute Ball is in the NBA. Not sure how many players LaVar alienated with for his comments, but I think even LaVar knows he cannot say the same things when his son gets into the NBA, like throwing Ball's professional teammates under a bus or organizations under the bus. Of course, this changes if LaVar tells teams Lonzo will only play for the Lakers (something he has already hinted, though I doubt it has a lot of weight).
Anyway, I think Lonzo will be a very good point guard to a great point guard in the NBA if he makes adjustments with his skills and some issues between the ears. I can see him being a Steve Nash-type of guard with an insane vision on the court, but also see him as a Nash with his defensive shortcomings. But we will see where he ends up going when all is said and done.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
