Looking At The NL After 2 Weeks: Faith Or Fluke?
We go through this every year in April. We knee-jerk our way to what the first two weeks of the season to pinpoint how the rest of the year will go. And this year is already no different. The one quote I hear is that "you can't win a division in April, but you can sure lose one." Ehh....I am not really one to say that. In some years, the point is valid. Others, not so much. Let's face the tidbits here: sooner or later players with the talent will get the teams rolling. It is just a hiccup. There is still 5 and a half months of baseball left. Do we really think some contending teams like the Cubs will be a .500 team the rest of the way? The Cardinals the worst team in baseball while the Reds pitching staff will be the envy of the Majors? Can we? I mean anything is possible, but still. How I am going to look at each team is the start: is it a fluke start or is it faith they will remain the way they are or close to be the way they are for throughout?
So what makes it a fluke in my eyes is if the start is higher than normal and there are some hidden reasons to the start as well as previous patterns in the past or players playing out of their minds, before coming back to earth.
And faith is that they will keep up the pace they are on. So if a team stinks now and I say faith, I have faith they will stink.
Onto the bit.
NL EAST: 1. Miami Marlins (7-5): They have gotten off to a nice start thanks in part to Marcell Ozuna and JT Realmuto have been great while Giancarlo Stanton is doing his thing. They also just took 3 of 4 wins away from the Mets at Marlins Park. That said, the pitching, while it isn't amazing to start with, hasn't really shown they are a legit rotation to this point. And in a division with Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Teheran, DeGrom, Syndergaard, Harvey, etc. you need at least a front line starter. They had one last year, but we know that sad story. FAITH OR FLUKE? FLUKE. The rotation will let them down and Ozuna may be in line for a huge year, but not at this rapid rate.
2. Washington Nationals (7-5): If you look at the position players and the starters, you have to believe Washington could be 11-1 at this point, but what kills the Nationals is the bullpen. Everybody to this point has been tearing the cover off the ball outside of Rendon and outside of Jeremy Guthrie (10 ER in 1 IP?), the rotation is doing what is expected out of them. From a talent standpoint, it is hard to think Washington isn't one of the top dogs in the NL, but the record says they are not. FAITH OR FLUKE? FLUKE. I mean it in a way that Washington should run away with this division, not be a team around .500. But the bullpen needs to be addressed.
3. New York Mets (7-6): The Mets rely on the HR as much as any team in the Majors. If they do not have Syndergaard, DeGrom, and Harvey, this would be a problem. They need to generate runs more than just the long ball. And it is hurting them as it has that "all or nothing" feel. They're getting production out of Cespedes, Bruce, and Lucas Duda, but Curtis Granderson has been a mess early on as have Neil Walker & Jose Reyes. They need to manufacture runs a bit more. FAITH OR FLUKE? FAITH. I think New York will get it worked out with Walker and Granderson will get a stretch where he gets going while the others fall back to earth a bit, but they're going to be in every game or almost every game that their staff starts.
4. Atlanta Braves (5-6): Atlanta can be really good or really bad. At times the offense clicks with the rest of the offensive minded teams, and at others, they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. But so far, Freddie Freeman is probably the most underrated player in the Majors and has been for a while and Nick Markakis has gotten off to a nice start, but Matt Kemp has been injured while Dansby Swanson has yet to make an impact. The staff is similar outside of Julio Teheran, who has pitched great, but cannot get any run support at all. You can either get a great performance out of Dickey, Colon, or Garcia, or they get rocked. The bullpen is similar as it can look stout at times or it is a dumpster fire. FAITH OR FLUKE? FAITH. Atlanta will be great at times, and then a mess at times. Growing pains for a relatively young team.
5. Philadelphia Phillies (4-8): Philadelphia's pitching outside of Buchholz has actually been pretty good. It is just they have closer issues with Jenmar Gomez and now Joaquin Benoit (who can set up fine, but a car wreck as a closer-gave up the walk-off HR to Bryce Harper today). The offense however, hasn't done too much outside of Cesar Hernandez and Howie Kendrick. But the Phils are wasting good outings from Hellickson, Nola, and Eickhoff, which could affect a very young team. FAITH OR FLUKE? FAITH. They're going to have those growing pains. I don't see the Phils really being a major threat to the NL East this year.
NL CENTRAL
1. Cincinnati Reds (8-5): If you told me the Reds would be this record and Joey Votto, Jose Peraza, and Billy Hamilton not having any impact (well, I can see it with Peraza and Hamilton) early on, I'd laugh. But hey, they are doing it with the other guys of Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez, and Zack Cozart. We figure most of the time it is Cincinnati and they like playing the HR ball, to which is the case, but the rotation of Scott Feldman, Amir Garrett, and Brandon Finnegan has been impressive. That said, Finnegan is already having arm troubles and that's going to be a problem. FAITH OR FLUKE? FLUKE. On two fronts. Votto will get it going, but the rotation will crash and burn and the offense will come down a bit as will the Reds.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (7-6): Similar to Cincinnati to an extent. A few guys (Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, and Domingo Santana) are doing fine at the plate while the others are scuffling while Jonathan Villar and rookie Orlando Arcia are struggling. The staff has been similar where you have some starters pitching out of their minds (Chase Anderson, Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson). The pen looks solid as well. FAITH OR FLUKE? I'm leaning towards faith. It is a young group, but I think the pitching is overall better than Cincinnati and if Josh Hader gets the call-up at some point, watch out.
3. Chicago Cubs (6-6): I think we should have expected SOME hangover from the World Champions after they ended a 108-year drought. It has really plagued the offense to this point. Kris Bryant has been their best hitter to this point, but only has 2 HR early (actually tied with Zobrist) and the likes of Rizzo and Schwarber hasn't really gotten it going. The rest haven't gotten going at all. The pitching hasn't been the problem, though I am trying to figure out how on planet earth Justin Grimm has a job. FAITH OR FLUKE? FLUKE. Chicago will get it going soon, and when they do, they're going to run roughshod in the NL Central.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (6-6): Pittsburgh I always feel has top-heavy talent in the likes of Marte, Polanco, and McCutchen while Gerrit Cole leads a good young staff. Funny part is, none of them have really made an impact to this point. Should make feel Pirate fans feel happy as it has been Adam Frazier, David Freese, and Francisco Cervelli leading the way while Taillon, Kuhl, and Ivan Nova pitching well while the stars are off to relatively slow starts. The bullpen is a mixed bag as Watson and Felipe Rivero have been great, but the others are a work in progress. FAITH OR FLUKE? FAITH. I think the law of averages will work its way as the outfield will roll at some point and Cole gets it together. But it will offset Frazier and Freese who believes this is 2011 all over again. But the rest of the rotation I am interested to see the rest of the way.
5. St. Louis Cardinals (3-8): This is the one team that I always believed was a model of consistency over the years. This is one of the worst starts I can remember the Cards having. I remember some web article talk about how this may be the year the Cardinals crash and burn. But one thing I never do is doubt St. Louis. However, I am wondering. Aledmys Diaz and Stephen Piscotty are doing fine, but if the Cards are relying on those two to carry the offense, it could be a long year. Matt Carpenter has been off to a real slow start, and Jhonny Peralta & Dexter Fowler (the two big contracts the Cards have given out in the past few years) have been nightmares (Peralta has a -13 OPS+ entering Sunday Night's game against the Yankees). Jedd Gyorko has been allright but hasn't seen a lot of playing time. The rotation has been a mixed bag, but when you consider two of the starters have had their woes with injuries (Lynn, Wainright), you figure as much as a mixed bag, though Michael Wacha and Mike Leake have been solid. But it also doesn't help when the bullpen is a giant mess. FAITH OR FLUKE? FLUKE. Maybe because I won't ever doubt St. Louis until they actually crash, but I think the offense will work its way out and Martinez & Lynn will get it going at some point. And the bullpen can't be THAT bad, can they?
NL WEST
1. Colorado Rockies (9-5): Charlie Blackmon? Meh. Trevor Story? Disaster right now. GarGo? CarNo. But somehow, the Rockies are rolling. Of course Nolan Arenado is crushing it anywhere he goes, which is great for the Rox and Mark Reynolds is on a tear to this point. But what has turned the tables to this point has been the pitching and really it is the bullpen pitching. The Rockies pen has a 2.60 ERA so far as the moves made to improve that mess has come to fruition. It has come from Dunn, Ottavino, and Greg Holland. FAITH OR FLUKE? FLUKE. We've seen this story over & over with the Rockies. They get off to a hot start in April and remain competitive for another month or so before they fall apart. Now, Gonzalez and Story should get better and Arenado should not drop off too much so it is a fluke on that account, but Colorado's pitching will be a question and if the pen is overworked, it will be another typical 78-84 year in the Mile High City.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (8-5): Maybe I did buy too much into the Diamondbacks disaster year of 2016 when injuries to AJ Pollock and Chris Owings set them back. But also a new style of play as it is more more analytic-oriented in Arizona, which has helped Patrick Corbin get off to a good start as has Robbie Ray while Taijuan Walker has shown flashes of brilliance like many thought he would have. The offense has been fairly solid to this point with your usual suspects of Goldschmidt, Tomas, and Lamb leading the way though Pollock has gotten off to a slow start. However, the bullpen a dumpster fire to this point. FAITH OR FLUKE? Leaning towards fluke. Arizona has a good young offense, but the bullpen has no answers and sooner or later Ray and Corbin have to come back to earth while Greinke, who knows if he will regain his form in Arizona.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (7-6): The best thing to come out of the early part is seeing Yasiel Puig tear the cover off the ball. Similar to Washington, Los Angeles looks to have good starts from their offense, and their pitching has been fine (though the Oriental Express of Ryu and Maeda have been a mess). The bullpen has been okay though their free agent pickup Sergio Romo hasn't wowed Dodgers fans to this point (4.15 ERA 1.4 WHIP). FAITH OR FLUKE? Fluke. Sooner or later, these wins they are not getting, will come. Los Angeles could be on track to really take the West.
4. San Diego Padres (5-8): If the Padres had an offense like we see in Colorado, Cincinnati, or Washington right now, the record looks better. But the offense, while not absolutely horrid like we've seen in the past (Myers, Margot, Solarte), is not a collection of sluggers. And the pitching is an absolute disaster. You can't win games like that. Bullpen is fine if you take out the wonder that is Christian Bethancourt and his 20.25 ERA, but similar to what we might see in Colorado, if the pen is used often, they will be worn out and it may get far worse. FAITH OR FLUKE? FAITH. Just not a lot of talent in the land of Ron Burgundy.
5. San Francisco Giants (5-9): While the Giants offense is not overpowering and left field is an issue as well as Posey on the concussion DL, it is fairly solid. But San Francisco needs Posey back for sure. But the issue is the pitching as the Giants, while not being too horrible, is not the same rotation we have come to know so far. Bumgarner and Cueto are 3.43 and 3.79 with ERA's respectively, though fine, that's not like them. Samardzija, Cain, and Matt Moore have been problematic at best. The Giants hoped Mark Melancon would turn the bullpen around after it being a key weak-link but that has blown up in their face and the pen has been a disaster to this point too. FAITH OR FLUKE? FLUKE: I think the pitching, notably the starting pitching will get it going and the pen cannot be this rough for the entire year. The Giants should be fine.
I will try to do the AL tomorrow.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
