The Obstructed National Championship Preview: Clemson vs. Alabama
So, we finished the season like last season, seeing Clemson and Alabama fight for the national championship for the second straight year. Of course, certain things changed between the two teams from this year and last year. Alabama played like a team possessed this season, winning all of their games but one by double digits and going undefeated in the process while Clemson at times sleepwalked in some of their games and had a loss. So a bit of a reversal as it is Alabama who is #1 and 14-0 while Clemson is #2 and 13-1. However, many have felt Clemson has the magic power of bringing down Alabama's mighty defense: Deshaun Watson. And given how both teams played in the semi-finals, and the Lane Kiffin situation at Alabama this past week, many feel Clemson will exact their measure of revenge. So here we go.............
CLEMSON WINS IF:
Clemson will have to do a magnificent job from keeping Alabama's line off Watson's back.
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1. They protect Watson. Whenever Clemson has their issues, notably when Watson plays "human," is when teams get after him. Of course, it is few and far between that he plays that way, but I still go back to the Auburn game and how they went after him. And while Auburn had a great defensive line, it is nothing like Alabama's. And one thing to note is that while Nick Fitzgerald and Joshua Dobbs aren't Watson, it is to be noted they are dual threat QB's (which ALL media experts say Alabama has a tough time dealing with), so this might be a different Alabama squad than last year in that aspect.
Clemson will be amped for the game agianst Alabama, but this is a marathon.
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2. Play composed. Clemson is an excitable football team and has been that way under Dabo. The thing is in the past, Alabama has consistently used other teams' emotions to their will, even this year as teams would get amped up to play Alabama. I think Clemson in that aspect is fine knowing they are playing Alabama, but I think they can get over-energized at times and even how some Clemson players are talking this week about how the team didn't know what to expect last year and how they are ready this year it makes me think some might overdo it.
Turning the ball over to Alabama is a no-no for Watson.
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3. No Watson interceptions. Watson's interception issues might have been another issue of why he isn't holding a Heisman this year. The good news for Clemson has been they have avoided the points off of those turnovers. We know Alabama is known for their pick-sixes and their fumbles returned for TD's this year. Watson threw two against Ohio State but it didn't cost Clemson. I don't know if they will run into the same luck with Alabama. That cannot happen for the Tigers if they want to win.
Bo Scarbrough is trying to cement his legacy as the next great Alabama back.
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4. Stop Bo Scarbrough. Alabama won against Washington because of strong defense (shocker) and Bo Scarbrough. If Clemson is going to win this game, stopping Scarbrough (and Harris & Hurts on the ground) is a must. They can zero in on Hurts passing, which has been iffy down the stretch. I think they can take their chances with Hurts passing than Scarbrough running.
Virginia Tech was one of a few teams that Clemson let hang around in games this year.
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5. Play 4 quarters. Yes, Alabama's issues of the first quarter this season has been well documented. But Clemson has a knack themselves of failing to show up for 4 quarters in a few games this year. But unlike Alabama, where they have 3 quarters to get it right (and mostly get it right midway through the second), Clemson's "quarter off" bit is any quarter, and sometimes it can be the 4th quarter. If Clemson sits back with a lead on Alabama in the 4th, then you can bet Alabama is going home with #17. It is different letting it happen to Virginia Tech. It is different letting it happen to Auburn. But this is Alabama. Even a touchdown lead at some point can turn into a 14 point deficit in no time.
Swinney's coaching decisions in the 4th quarter might decide who wins the game.
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6. Dabo has to out-coach Saban. Swinney probably had his best coaching game all season against Ohio State. However, those close games, he has been scrutinized for some of his calls, which hasn't come back to bite the Tigers too hard. If this game is close, Swinney needs to go with his best odds and not try to "trust" his group, like he nearly did in Auburn and even Virginia Tech. I think he at times gets too happy with his leads.
ALABAMA WINS IF
Hurts struggling against Washington was an understatement. Maybe Sarkisian will help change his fortunes.
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1. Jalen Hurts recovers from the Washington game and plays great. Hurts, similar to Watson, had turnover issues down the stretch in his season but didn't hurt him thanks in part to his defense. He didn't commit any turnovers against Washington, but it was his worst game to date. With Kiffin gone, Hurts will now listen to Steve Sarkisian. But the one thing many forget is Sark has been in Tuscaloosa since September and has probably worked with Hurts and the offense so the transition isn't as difficult as what I think the media has made it out to be. But Hurts has got to play well in order for Alabama to win.
Watson played okay against Ohio State, but the turnovers cannot happen against Alabama.
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2. Get under Watson's skin. While Watson isn't combustible as other quarterbacks out there, there have been times where I think the game has been too easy for Watson and takes himself out of the game. When it happens, he struggles. That said, when Clemson struggled early this year it felt like Watson wasn't doing all that well and it seemed like his mind was elsewhere. If Alabama jumps off to an early lead and stop Clemson's offense on a few drives, it will be interesting to see how Watson handles it.
Mike Williams might be the toughest WR the Tide have dealt with all season.
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
3. Handle Mike Williams. Easier said than done obviously. Alabama's secondary might be the "weak link" of the team, but you're still talking a group that consists of Minkah Fitzpatrick, Ronnie Harrison, and Marlon Humphrey, and it is ranked 15th in the nation against the pass. So it isn't like Alabama's passing D is chopped liver like it has been the last few years under Kirby Smart. Bama has played more of a man style defense on teams under Jeremy Pruitt than Kirby Smart and that is probably why it has gone up on defense. That said, you could see more than a few double teams on Williams largely because Alabama hasn't seen a WR of his caliber yet. Hard to think given how Alabama faces off against SEC schools and you think somebody would have a WR of that stature in the SEC, but nope.
If the game is close, Saban will have to make the right decisions.
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4. Saban doesn't out-coach himself. Whenever Alabama plays close games (i.e. games that are decided by a TD or less), they really struggle. Since 2010, Alabama has gone 9-9 in games decided by a TD or less. And there have been times where I wonder what Saban is thinking in those games in the 4th (the famed Auburn game, LSU in 2011, Texas A&M in 2012). And even a few wins had me scratch my head in the play calls. This game will be close, for sure. If Saban plays it right, he should be all right. But if he overthinks it at times, that is when Alabama could be in trouble late.
Wayne Gallman is going to have to be neutralized for the Tide to zero in on Watson.
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5. Make Gallman a non-factor. Again, easier said than done as he has been huge. The same thing I said earlier about Scarbrough for Alabama is Gallman for Clemson. It takes a lot of pressure off of Watson and creates havoc for opposing defenses. I don't think Gallman will come close to 100+ yards, but he can still disrupt Alabama's defense. If he is out of the game, Alabama can really zero in on Watson more and figure out what to do.
PREDICTION: At the beginning of the year, I had this as my national championship pick with Clemson winning. As the season progressed, I had Alabama winning it all, even if they played Clemson. And given how the games went in the semis, I am not sure anymore. Anytime I think Clemson is ready to roll, they crash. And when I think Jalen Hurts is over his head, he goes crazy. I do think the Tigers are riding high while Alabama's offense does have some questions with Hurts, but that said, Alabama's defense is one of the best defenses I've seen in a long long time. This is too hard to call. I will just say 24-21. Not saying a winner, I am just saying the score.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
