The Obstructed NCAA Preview for Week 11
Getting closer and closer to the finish line. The games are more intense and will continue to be that way when we figure out the playoff teams. Until then, enjoy the rides.
Last week I went 11-4 and now 82-38 on the season (way lower if I did the spread though, but given how college football is, the spread is a mess-kinda like the offensive style-zing!)
Let's get to the biggies.
I will say by the time this gets looked at, the Utah/Arizona State game will really have started so I am going to just make my pick of Utah beating Arizona State 34-31. Largely because the Sun Devils can't play defense, even if the game is in Tempe.
SOUTH CAROLINA @ FLORIDA, 12:00, CBS: The Gators were presumed the best team in the SEC (L)East by last week. I even had them beating Arkansas. However, the Gators are a mess. Offensively they aren't as strong and defensively they have taken a step back. Now while they aren't the biggest surprise, the Gamecocks have turned some heads in the SEC and have a great shot at a bowl game (I think I penned them down for 3-9) and you do have to give SOME credit to Will Muschamp for getting them turned around. That said, I don't see Florida tanking at Ben Hill Griffin especially with a base ready to rip Muschamp. Game will be a low-scoring game. Not Alabama-LSU, but low scoring. Florida generates enough offense to hold off South Carolina from really screwing the SEC East. MY PREDICTION: FLORIDA 17, SOUTH CAROLINA 10
(10) PENN STATE @ INDIANA, 12:00, ABC: There is a lot of intrigue for me on this one. The Lions have played possessed since their win against Ohio State including an epic beatdown of Iowa. Indiana I thought would have been a bit better this year but have scuffled at times. But I think the Hoosiers get up against the bigger teams and could give the Lions fits in Bloomington this weekend. Will it be enough? I doubt it but Penn State might not run roughshod on the Hoosiers. MY PREDICTION: PENN STATE 38, INDIANA 31
KENTUCKY @ TENNESSEE, 12:00, SEC: Had Kentucky beaten Georgia last week, I would have said this game would be a slam dunk for the Wildcats. But they lost and had no answer for Georgia. The Vols squashed Tennessee Tech, taking out probably an entire season of frustration on them. But it is playing against quality opponents that have given the Vols nightmares all year. And really the program is a bit plagued with the Hurd controversy and Dobbs inability to play worth a flip. But he could have a good game here with a fairly weak Kentucky defense. MY PREDICTION: TENNESSEE 28, KENTUCKY 21
BAYLOR @ (11) OKLAHOMA, 12:00, ABC: The Sooners have become the team many thought that would roll in the Big 12. However, the out-of-conference losses to Houston and Ohio State continues to sting them (especially since Houston has fallen off). But the game will be a typical Big 12 shootout where first to 60 wins. And it is probably Oklahoma as the Bears finally hit that "tough part of the schedule" button and have began to implode. MY PREDICTION: OKLAHOMA 59, BAYLOR 35
(16) WEST VIRGINIA @ TEXAS, 12:00, FS1: The "Save Charlie Strong" train continues to roll after the last few weeks of the Longhorns winning quality games. The Mountaineers rolled after their Oklahoma State loss (but to Kansas) so this is that road game West Virginia NEEDS to have if they want any chance of the Big 12 championship. However, the game is in Austin and I think the Horns are rolling right now. Might be too much for Holgorsen and West Virginia. And I will say this: if Texas wins, Strong will be back in 2017. MY PREDICTION: TEXAS 41, WEST VIRGINIA 30
PITT @ (2) CLEMSON, 3:30, ABC: Clemson's issue is to not trip up once the rest of the way until the playoff. I think we are seeing the Tigers finally playing possessed where they are going to roll the rest of the way. Bad news for the rest of the teams having to face them (Pitt, Wake Forest, South Carolina, and probably Virginia Tech). And the Panthers D is still a mess. Not going to bode well for this one if Clemson plays like they did against Syracuse. MY PREDICTION: CLEMSON 45, PITT 17
(9) AUBURN @ GEORGIA, 3:30, CBS: Sorry, not on the Auburn bandwagon train. I get that the Iron Bowl will likely decide the SEC West winner in 2 weeks in Tuscaloosa, but Auburn's benefit has been playing teams at the right place at the right time. And the other bit is, the 4 teams who have played Auburn physical the Tigers have struggled (Clemson, Texas A&M, LSU and Vanderbilt). Not saying Georgia is a team like those 4, but they have the homefield and the passing game could be their biggest asset to Auburn's weak passing defense. This is not the game Auburn needs to have especially struggling at home to Vanderbilt last week. Georgia might have found that formula of playing good football too. MY PREDICTION: GEORGIA 20, AUBURN 17
(5) OHIO STATE @ MARYLAND, 3:30, ESPN: Poor Terps. First getting destroyed by Michigan and now this? All kidding aside, Maryland should come out early and play at least some inspiring football. But for four quarters to a ticked off Buckeyes squad? Good luck. MY PREDICTION: OHIO STATE 55, MARYLAND 21
GEORGIA TECH @ (14) VIRGINIA TECH, 3:30, ESPNU The Jackets are a big mess away from Bobby Dodd and if the Hokies jump on them early like I think they will, forget it. Add another notch into the Paul Johnson hot seat. MY PREDICTION: VIRGINIA TECH 52, GEORGIA TECH 34
WAKE FOREST @ (6) LOUISVILLE, 7:00, ESPN 2: Wake Forest will experience the same issue as Maryland, having to square off against Louisville and Clemson in back-to-back weeks. Right now Louisville has the "run-up-the-score" mentality where they will make the committee's lives hell December 3-4. Right now, any stumble/hiccup ruins them obviously. Wake has been a surprise with a good defense and a decent offense. But the game is in Louisville at night. I don't like those odds for the Deacons. MY PREDICTION: LOUISVILLE 49, WAKE FOREST 20
(24) LSU @ (25) ARKANSAS, 7:00, ESPN: I got the LSU ranking but Arkansas at #25? SEC bias? Yes! But this game is hard to figure out because as we have seen over the last few years after the Tigers lose to Alabama, they go in free-fall mode. And it really begins with Arkansas. The Razorbacks did a nice rebound after their epic collapse against Auburn by beating Florida. So I am going to be intrigued by it. I think LSU and the talk they did about proclaiming they would beat Alabama and DOMINATE Alabama in the process might really take an effect here. This might be the game that decides Orgeron's future in LSU, not Alabama. MY PREDICTION: ARKANSAS 24, LSU 17
MINNESOTA @ (19) NEBRASKA, 7:30, BTN: Yes, Nebraska got slaughtered last week at Ohio State. Yes, Tommy Armstrong got injured. But the game is in Nebraska and Armstrong might play that game. I don't know if the Gophers are there just yet in winning a major road game against an unranked team. I think this will be a close, nip-and-tuck battle, but Nebraska will win it out. Just too much firepower on the Huskers offense. And I wasn't impressed with how Minnesota struggled at home to Purdue. MY PREDICTION: NEBRASKA 28, MINNESOTA 24
(20) USC @ (4) WASHINGTON, 7:30, FOX: BIG game here. USC has played great since their September slip-up, but now they get the best team in the PAC-12 without question. The Trojans offense is clicking and will stretch the Huskies D out a bit. It might make Washington play 4 quarters. But I think the homefield will play a factor. The game is in Seattle and that is a tough place to win. Had this game been in Los Angeles, I might have felt different. MY PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 41, USC 38
(3) MICHIGAN @ IOWA, 8:00 ABC: Michigan is playing possessed and right now the Hawkeyes have mailed it in. They will probably respond better back at home, but the Wolverines are just on another level right now. Hard to think Michigan will have many issues here. Maybe the first half the Wolverines have issues, but this game will be over fast in the second half. Just my take. MY PREDICTION: MICHIGAN 37, IOWA 17
That's it for the week!
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
