The Obstructed NCAA Top 5: Week 11
Wow. Just wow.
I think that's everybody's reaction to what the college football day that was on Saturday (which really started Thursday when Duke put down #15 North Carolina which should have been our first reaction. But the day went crazy and maybe too crazy for the top dogs that fell to really hurt all of them. If anything, a top dog that fell wasn't a team who actually lost this week. As crazy as that sounds.
TOP 5 WINNERS
1. ALABAMA: At this point, even if Alabama does end up losing in the Iron Bowl (hard to think given how Auburn cannot go against physical teams and can't pass either), they not only stay in the playoff discussion but probably remain #1 when all is said & done. Brett McMurphy made a tweet last night after Michigan fell that the playoff might be just the Tide scrimmaging each other. Won't go that far just yet, but possibly getting closer.
2. LOUISVILLE: Well, the first shoe for Clemson dropped. That's the good news. The bad news is, they need to have Clemson beat a team that Louisville ran up the score on against Wake Forest next week. Possible, but not probable. But would all bets be off if Clemson loses to South Carolina? It would be off especially if the Cardinals travel to Houston this Thursday and lose however. Again, also possible, but not probable.
3. PENN STATE: Here's where the first chaos domino of the playoff begins. If Penn State wins out and Ohio State wins out, it is the 10-2 Nittany Lions that make the Big Ten Championship while the 11-1 Buckeyes are at home, thanks to the tiebreak. And ironically it was a Pittsburgh loss that Penn State has. So the question begs, would Penn State get in at 11-2 (assuming they win out and beat Wisconsin) over an 11-1 Ohio State team? If the committee sticks to their guns like they have in 2014 and 2015, the answer is yes.
4. WEST VIRGINIA/OKLAHOMA/OKLAHOMA STATE: Yes, the Big 12 is slowly creeping back in to the discussion of the playoff after what went down Saturday. However, both Oklahoma schools will desperately need help to get in while West Virginia if they win out and have somebody fall or maybe a 2-loss Big Ten champ can jump back in the discussion. I still think the chances are slim that a Big 12 champ sneaks in, but it is back on the table.
5. USC: What would have happened if the Trojans had started Sam Darnold against Stanford and Utah? More chaos. But right now, they might be the best team in the PAC-12 after how they handled Washington in Seattle. That said, incredibly doubtful if they crash the playoff party. But a PAC-12 title is within reach. Hard to think given how the season started out.
TOP 5 LOSERS
1. OHIO STATE: How does a 55-3 win against Maryland makes you a top 5 loser and the loser for this week? When you needed your most hated enemy of all things to win out until the big game in 2 weeks (Michigan) loses and now you are not in control of your destiny. Worse, they might be 11-1 and end up seeing not one, but two teams with two losses in the playoff. That's the big loss for Ohio State. But it depends on how the committee views it, especially if one of them is Oklahoma. I am not badmouthing Ohio State here, but they are in a very bad position after yesterday and it stinks for them.
2. AUBURN: The Tigers had a great shot at making the Iron Bowl with great meaning once more and blew it in Georgia. The problem is, the Tigers struggled once again to physical defenses (Clemson, Texas A&M, LSU, Vanderbilt, and Georgia) and were forced to pass, which has been an epic fail. Not good when you see Alabama in 2 weeks. And even if you beat Alabama, the Tide still move on to the SEC Championship.
3. VIRGINIA TECH AND NORTH CAROLINA: The ACC Coastal front-runners lose to two mediocre teams in Georgia Tech (in Blacksburg mind you) and Duke. With all the chaos that happened, had the Hokies and Tar Heels took care of business, they might have ended up with an argument for the playoff as well. But that's gone too.
4. TEXAS A&M: Well, let those "Fire Sumlin" talk begin. The Aggies have inherited the "post-Alabama" hangover from LSU now and have gone back to looking like the same Texas A&M who wants to open it up and let it fly. The problem is, the quarterback play is subpar. They should have stuck to what has worked.
5. WASHINGTON: Well, surprised they weren't up higher? IF the Huskies win out, they will remain fine. However, the road is a bit messy right now as the Huskies still have to go to Washington State who is playing some great ball right now and a possible rematch with USC, who really owned them last night. So of the 3 major teams that lost, the Huskies are the ones who really hurt themselves in my eyes for their playoff chances.
TOP 5 QUESTIONS NOBODY WANTS TO ASK:
Despite the loss, Michigan's playoff fate still remains in Columbus against Ohio State.
1. WHY DIDN'T YOU PUT MICHIGAN AND CLEMSON IN THE TOP 5 LOSERS? Because if they win out, they're still in. The margin of error goes ker-plunk though. But Michigan has to beat Ohio State with or without a loss to win the Big Ten East. So their road remains simple: win against Ohio State, win the division. Lose to Ohio State and you're out. Still remains that way. Clemson, similar scenario. If they beat Wake, they go to the ACC Championship and possibly shut out Louisville from the playoff. The bigger game might be the South Carolina game though and if they fall in that one. Then what do you do if you're the committee? So I think outside of Alabama, Clemson is almost safe for a playoff, but they have really fallen flat on their faces all season. It just bit them against Pitt.
Already some Buckeye fans are wanting change to the playoff format, especially if they are on the outside looking in.
2. WILL THIS YEAR MAKE A STRONG PUSH FOR AN 8-TEAM PLAYOFF? Not yet, no. 2014 and 2015 worked themselves out on that first Saturday in December. You might be getting more people scream about bloody murder if there was an 8-team playoff (though I am a proponent for it) when you talk about teams 6-7-8-9. If you can imagine it now, three top 4 Big Ten teams (Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin) are going to scream like crazy, Louisville will scream like crazy, the Big 12 will scream like crazy, and even the PAC-12 with Utah, Colorado, and maybe even USC will scream like crazy. So you might get only a couple teams crying foul (Big 12 champ, Louisville, and Ohio State if all goes as planned as opposed to double of that).
Clemson/Wake might be one to keep a very close eye on next week.
3. NEXT WEEK YOU HAVE "SEMI-QUIET" GAMES ON TAP FOR THE TOP TEAMS AGAIN SAVE LOUISVILLE AT HOUSTON; ARE THERE ANY UPSETS THAT COULD REALLY PLAY OUT? Outside of Alabama, Penn State, and Wisconsin, all of them. Michigan is probably safe too with Indiana at home. But not even Louisville and Ohio State are safe. Granted Michigan State has been roughed up a bit this year, but it isn't like they have been slaughtered in games either. That could be a game to keep an eye on though I think the Bucks should be fine. But Clemson at Wake is not going to be an easy one for the Tigers (at least in my eyes and I hope it is a good game since I am heading up there for that game). Washington SHOULD be okay against Arizona State, but what hangover will they have after USC? So probably Ohio State, Louisville, and Clemson again people need to keep a close eye on.
Clemson's loss to Pitt might have been a blessing in disguise for the Tigers.
4. WHAT HAS HAPPENED WITH CLEMSON THIS YEAR? The Tigers remind me of the 2015 Michigan State squad. They played lackluster ball and played down to their opponents levels at times (NC State, Pitt, and even Louisville/FSU). They got up when it mattered and had some lucky breaks like Michigan State. However, it was a stinging and probably controversial loss that both Clemson and 2015 Michigan State had that might SAVE their season. I think with both teams however, was that they believed teams would just give them wins largely because of being Top 10 programs and garnering a lot of success over the years. The loss could have saved Clemson's season and could wake them up for Wake, South Carolina and whoever wins the Coastal Division.
5. IS KEVIN SUMLIN BACK ON THE HOT SEAT AT TEXAS A&M? If they lose to LSU, yes. But the Aggies are becoming that team that will look like a national contender at the middle of the season and just fall apart. I drank the Kool-Aid this year on them because how they changed their style of play to more of a run-oriented game and the defense looked physical enough to hang with the big boys. But the realization was that outside of Auburn, the Aggies played nobody until the Alabama game. Mental? Maybe. But the quarterback play has been a disappointment and the defense looks vintage 2013-2014 where they couldn't stop anybody. The Ole Miss game was really an embarrassment in my eyes for Texas A&M. But Sumlin will be safe if he beats LSU. If he loses to them, his record against Alabama and LSU will be 1-9. And those two teams were the ones that you are trying to build rivalries with in the SEC. That gets you fired in places like Michigan, Ohio State, Auburn, etc.
MY CURRENT COLLEGE PLAYOFF TOP 4:
1. ALABAMA
2. OHIO STATE
3. LOUISVILLE
4. MICHIGAN
Yes, I get it is messed up and I know Clemson will probably be ahead of Louisville in Head-to-Head and the conference, but the Cards are playing better than Clemson. Will Clemson jump ahead if they win the ACC again? Yes. Same probably goes for the Big Ten winner over Ohio State AND Michigan. But right now, it is who is playing the best ball.
Let's see how it goes next week. By the way, no top 5 winners/losers scheduled since I am out of town (yes, I am seeing Clemson/Wake Forest in my semi-annual college football trip; what a game to pick right now!)
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
