Ken Niumatalolo's future
Ken Niumatalolo has been a staple at the most successful service academy for nearly ten years now, and has elevated the program to a point where success is expected. The American Athletic Conference is becoming the conference for poaching for larger teams. While Tom Herman is the most easily remembered coach to bolt for a bigger school from the AAC recently, he’s far from the only one. Matt Rhule left for Temple, Justin Fuente left for Virginia Tech, and Willie Taggart left for Oregon. Clearly the Power Five conferences view the AAC as a conference where coaches can separate themselves, so what is different about Ken Niumatalolo that has led him to stay?
Why is he still there?
Well, for starters, Navy is a good job in its own right. There are recruiting restrictions placed on all division 1 schools that aren’t placed on service academies, primarily there is no scholarship limit for coaches. It is also the most recently successful service academy, and has been more successful in recruiting than both of their counterparts in Army and the Air Force. But the job is one that wears on coaches due to all of the other responsibilities that come with it. Troy Calhoun has been on the job hunt, trying to leave Air Force due to frustration with the administration, primarily relating to scheduling and player eligibility. These same problems exist with Niumatalolo as well. Niumatalolo changed agencies recently, and while he has denied that it is because he is ready to move on from Navy, his interview with BYU came after the agency change, so it is at least worth questioning. At the very least it seems likely that Niumatalolo wants to at least explore other jobs.
The elephant in the room for Niumatalolo, he runs the option. Navy, like most service academies runs a veer option offense, largely due to restrictions on weight for players. While the Naval academy has been allowing players to go a little bit over the required weights, offensive lineman at Navy still can never come near the 300 pound lineman that we are used to seeing from the blueblood programs of the world. The option allows Navy to live with their smaller size in the trenches by using cut blocks, as the backs usually get to the second level pretty quickly. But would Niumatalolo take his option with him if he left? It seems clear that he would. BYU reportedly viewed him as their favorite candidate prior to settling on Kalani Sitake, the major sticking point: the option. BYU wanted Niumatalolo to ditch the option, but he was unwilling to leave what he viewed as one of his main advantages. And he’s probably right too, according to football outsider’s s&p+ ratings system, Navy’s offense rated 17th in 2016, including the 7th best rushing offense. It would seem like a bad decision for Niumatalolo to leave behind what separates him from all coaches.
So if Niumatalolo does want to leave, where could he end up?
No blueblood is going to hire a triple option coach. While big time schools are showing a willingness to run more spread option, and run pass option offenses, the veer option still has quite a bit of stigma against it. While Paul Johnson has been reasonably successful at Georgia Tech, the failure of the 2015 teams still has teams nervous. Fair or not, Niumatalolo’s success is tied to the success of Georgia Tech in many ways, and this is especially true when considering that both coaches have had many problems fielding an effective defense. So if Niumatalolo does make a jump, he’s going to have to accept that it is going to be a lower tier job.
The team will have to be desperate, and willing to try something a little bit funky. Georgia Tech had discipline problems, and inconsistent play under Chan Gailey prior to hiring Paul Johnson, and seemed ready to find consistency. The particular school is near impossible to predict however, because Niumatalolo does have some time. He’s only 51, but his consideration of BYU shows that he is ready. A school like Virginia makes sense in all ways, except for only one: they just hired Bronco Mendenhall. But consider the fact that Virginia also has stringent academic requirements, even for their athletes, and are in a conference that made several home run hires the same year as Mendenhall was hired. While it’s too early to judge Mendenhall at Virginia, he was a hire that most considered to be a bit odd, and probably only has four years to prove that he can do an adequate job. After that, Virginia will be desperate, and may be willing to try a veer option. A school like Oregon State, also makes sense if Gary Anderson fails to rebuild the program. While these are not explicit predictions, it seems relatively clear that Niumatalolo will never be under consideration of a team with a strong brand attached to it.
Would he be successful?
Niumatalolo has been successful for long enough, that he should be a relatively safe bet for whoever hires him. The ideal circumstance would be in a conference that has focused on defending the pass. The conference would have linebackers built to cover receiving tight ends, and slot receivers, and overly aggressive defenses. That reads Big 12, or PAC 12, but it doesn’t mean that he wouldn’t be successful in any conference. While there are still people uncomfortable with the veer option, the reality is that it relies on the same types of concepts as the spread option that has been incredibly successful, even at large brand schools. If Niumatalolo does want to leave, and a team does want to hire him, he will be successful. Niumatalolo is going to begin to be mentioned on many more coaching searches, and he deserves to be.
