Week 11: Showtime
OVERVIEW
November 13, 2015
Joe Broback
CLAEYS PICKS UP WHERE KILL LEFT OFF
This week we saw something happen that is unique: a team removed the interim label off of their head coach. Minnesota signed Tracy Claeys to a three year contract to keep him and his staff (presumably) in Minnesota for a while. Overall, I think the move was the right one. College football is a win now business, so rarely do coaches get longer than three years if there are any doubts. While the Gophers year may not be going how they wanted, keeping Claeys brings stability and certainty to Minnesota since Jerry Kill left. Claeys is essentially an extension of Kill, and that has helped ease Gopher fans and players. The incoming recruiting class knows that the coaches that recruited them (minus Kill) will be there when they show up on campus.
For teams like Minnesota, who aren’t bringing many five or four star recruits, bringing in the kids they recruited is essential. The coaches recruit players that fit their system, and a new coach may not share those same philosophies which creates more issues. Future and present Gophers don’t have to go through another transition to a new coach and a new playbook either. Stability is rare in college football, and when you find it, you need to keep it for as long as you can.
While making Claeys the head coach and promoting others is a good move, some things need to happen with the program. The Gophers need to make the next step in the Big Ten, and they did not make it this year. Claeys brings his team to Iowa this week for an important game, but the Gophers are not going to make a run for the Big Ten championship. Under Kill, Minnesota was making progress towards building a solid program. Under Claeys, the U needs to become a consistent contender. Losing to Ohio State by 14 can’t be acceptable, slipping against teams like Illinois and Purdue won’t make a good impression and anything less than a division championship each year should be a disappointment. Expectations for Claeys need to be raised, not lowered. He needs to bring this team to where Kill envisioned them to be. This year may not produce any championships, but if they can make a bowl game with their remaining schedule, Minnesota should be encouraged.
Minnesota will have a new athletic director next year (unless the current interim Beth Goetz gets the job), and that AD needs to raise expectations for Gopher football. New Years bowl games, beating rivals, and competing for championships needs to become the standard. Claeys enters a unique situation and hopefully a bright future. He also enters a win now world with a team that he is in charge of. How he handles his new job remains to be seen, but it won’t get any easier. Kill’s vision was to make the Gophers relevant, Claeys should be to make them dominant.
Group of Five Playoff
*all rankings relative to this section
Four In:
#1 Houston Cougars (9-0)----Houston got caught taking their foot off the throttle, and Cincinnati almost gave the Cougars their first loss. Gunner Kiel has one of the greatest names for a quarterback and almost completed a major comeback. Kiel threw for 523 yards and Cincy had a chance to win or tie the game, but Kiel’s throw was too high for Chris Moore on 4th and 10. Memphis comes to town this week, and this is the second (first was against Cincinnati) of three games in the AAC that will determine if Houston will get the bid for a New Year’s bowl game.
#2 Temple Owls (8-1)----The defense must have had a hangover from trying to stop Notre Dame, because SMU put 40 points on the board. Luckily for them, the offense didn’t take a vacation and amassed 60 points. Houston gets the top spot after Memphis fell, but Temple could claim that spot if the Cougars fall to the Tigers this weekend. All the Owls have to do is take care of USF, but hopefully they don’t have to put up 60 more points to do it.
#3 Memphis Tigers (8-1)----And just like that, the Tiger’s playoff hopes vanished into thin air. Memphis’ run isn’t over, and the Tigers are still looking to win the AAC and can start by beating Houston. Memphis turned the ball over three times against Navy, and you can bet coach Justin Fuente is making that a point of emphasis for this game at Houston. The defense will be tested with dual threat Greg Ward, but they should have a bounce back week.
#4 BYU Cougars (7-2)----It’s strange to think that this team was once the most exciting team in college football and now is a team that is largely forgotten. BYU hosts Missouri this week, and the football game might be the least talked about subject. Missouri has had issues with their president, but he’s gone now. The Tigers have struggled, and BYU is looking to add an impressive resume.
Four Out:
#5 Navy Midshipmen (8-1)----Keenan Reynolds may not have broken a record, but he will take the team win over Memphis any day. Reynolds ran the triple option to perfection and let his teammates take over the game. Navy has two trap games against SMU and Tulsa (those laughing about SMU should go see what the Mustangs did to Temple’s defense) before heading to Houston in late November. It’s finally nice to see that Navy’s most important game isn’t just the Army-Navy game.
#6 Toledo Rockets (8-1)----One week after the debacle against NIU, Toledo almost had another. The Rockets also got some help from the referees, well sort of. The refs told Central Michigan cheerleaders to quit making noise in one of the strangest things you will see in sports. Despite the “noise issue,” Toledo escaped with the win. The Rockets don’t play again until next Tuesday, their third in a row (which is baffling). Bowling Green comes to town next and Toledo’s defense better be prepared to stop Matt Johnson.
#7 Bowling Green Falcons (8-2)----The aforementioned Johnson didn’t have his best game, but was more than happy to watch his back Travis Greene run for 170 yards and three touchdowns. Bowling Green is trying to outscore every team they play and bank on Johnson not being stopped. That may cost them when they play Toledo.
#8 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-2)----There was a little curiosity as to who was the better team, Marshall or WKU. With the Herd’s loss to Middle Tennessee State, the answer was clear. The Hilltoppers have the Conference USA East division in their grips, and just have to beat Florida International and Marshall to go to the ‘ship. QB Brandon Doughty is having another stellar year, and his team will go as far as he takes them.
Other notables:
Georgia Southern (6-2), Marshall Thundering Herd (8-2), Appalachian State Mountaineers (7-2), Boise State Broncos (7-2)
CFP PLAYOFF TEAMS
Teams in the playoff:
#1 Clemson Tigers (8-0)----If you didn’t believe this team was different, you should now. Clemson handled early adversity against Florida State, and retained its #1 ranking in the committee’s eyes. The only way the Tigers won’t make the playoff is by losing, not if they slip up in a game. Their remaining schedule isn’t too daunting (at Syracuse, Wake Forest, and at South Carolina), but the ACC championship game appears to be heading towards a matchup versus North Carolina. It’s simple for Clemson: win and you’re in.
#2 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1)----Well Alabama, I’m impressed. Many of us are still wondering: what happened with Ole Miss? Alabama dominated LSU this past week and made a bold statement that the Tide hasn’t lost a step. Nick Saban has his team in the driver’s seat, but can’t afford to lose their focus. Mississippi State awaits, and the Bulldogs have quietly made their way into the top 20. You can bet Saban and DC Kirby Smart have had many sleepless nights planning to stop Bulldogs’ QB Dak Prescott.
#3 Baylor Bears (8-0)----Good luck, Baylor. The Bears have arguably the three hardest games in the nation in three consecutive weeks. Oklahoma comes to town this week, followed by road trips to a rising Oklahoma State team, and recent losers to the Cowboys (TCU). If Baylor can win all three games and finish the season by defeating Texas, there isn’t a reason Baylor shouldn’t be in the playoff. If they don’t make the playoff after that, I’m not watching college football ever again.
#4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1)----Make no mistake: the win against Pitt was impressive. The Irish dominated the Panthers from the opening whistle, and Will Fuller showed why he an elite talent. Pitt’s secondary left Fuller on an island all day (why they did that, no one knows). Fuller made sure to punish them for that decision making a couple of nice grabs on his way to three scores. Notre Dame’s one loss is to the top rated Clemson Tigers, so as long as Clemson wins and Notre Dame wins out, both should be in the playoff.
Teams on the outside looking in (in no particular order):
Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-0)----The Cowboys are surprising many, just ask TCU. Mike Gundy has his locker room believing they are contenders, and are ready for their brutal ending stretch. Iowa State is next, but OSU can’t afford to overlook them. In 2011, the Cyclones hosted the Cowboys (ranked #2 at the time) and ruined their national championship hopes and perfect season. These Cowboys are undefeated, but will be reminded of what happened last time they came to Ames unblemished.
Stanford Cardinal (8-1)----My how the tables have turned. This week a ranked Stanford team plays an unranked underdog named Oregon. While Oregon has won 10 of the last 13 matchups, Stanford has won the last 2 of 3. It’s weird seeing the Ducks in this position, but Stanford knows better than to underestimate their opponent. Stanford’s road to the playoff is bumpy with the Ducks, Cal and Notre Dame left. All three games are at home, but all three could prove costly. Stanford wins the Pac-12 North with a win against Oregon.
Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0)----I don’t even want to talk about these guys anymore. I’m sick of people justifying them being in the playoff with no merit attached from this year. Win an important game and I’ll start talking.
Iowa Hawkeyes (9-0)----I’ll talk about the Hawkeyes though! They struggled against Indiana, but enough teams lost to move them up to #5 in the college football rankings. Awaiting them is a Minnesota team who just named their new coach and will be fired up to play for the Floyd of Rosedale. This is Iowa’s toughest remaining game simply because it’s a rivalry game. All signs are pointing towards the Big Ten championship game for this team.
GAMES OF THE WEEK/PICKEM
*all rankings are based on AP Poll
Overall Record: 23-17 Last week: 1-3
#21 Memphis at #24 Houston
Memphis lost a heartbreaker last week as their playoff hopes were wiped out by Navy. There is no time to feel sorry for themselves as Houston awaits. It will be Paxton Lynch vs Greg Ward Jr. and which quarterback can put up more astonishing numbers. Lynch likes to move the ball through the air but is an underrated runner. Ward is a good passer, but is more dangerous using his legs. The difference in this game is Memphis is more tested than Houston, and will be out for revenge after last week’s loss.
My pick: Memphis 44 Houston 38
Oregon at #7 Stanford
After a few weeks of the season, many wondered if either team would be ranked ever. While Stanford has done a better job of recovering, the Ducks are starting to come around. Stanford has forgotten the pain of losing to Northwestern in week 1 (they should talk to Alabama about head scratching games) and has been a team on a mission ever since. Christian McCaffrey will be everywhere on the field and the Ducks need to note where he’s at. Oregon’s defense has never been a more important X-factor for a game. If they play well, the sky is the limit, but if they struggle, Stanford will run (literally) through the Ducks. Nike University can score, but can they make stops?
My pick: UPSET SPECIAL: Oregon 42 Stanford 28
#2 Alabama at #17 Mississippi State
Dak Prescott won’t make any excuses, he will just work harder. Arguably the best quarterback in the SEC, Prescott is a nightmare for defenses. His passing ability has improved immensely and his running is still as great as ever. Surprisingly, the Bulldogs can still win the SEC West, and wouldn’t that be something? While they need some help, MSU is looking to ruin other team’s seasons in the meantime. Prescott will be tough to contain, but his offense hasn’t faced a front seven like the Tide’s and that will make a huge difference.
My pick: Alabama 35 Mississippi State 17
#12 Oklahoma at #6 Baylor
Oklahoma’s loss to Texas stings in more ways than one for Sooners fans. Not only does it hurt to lose to a rival, but it hurt their place in the playoff. All of the pain can be erased by winning out. First up: Baylor. The Bear’s had to start a freshman in Jarrett Stidham, but he wasn’t the problem in their close win over Kansas State. Baker Mayfield has faded out of the national conversation (mainly because the Sooners haven’t played anyone notable for a while), but his name will be mentioned plenty this weekend. Stidham will be tested by Oklahoma’s defense, and his playmakers will have to help him out. It will be tough for Oklahoma to stop Baylor’s offense, but the same can be said for the Bears stopping the Sooners. Ultimately, the game will come down to which defense plays better.
My pick: Baylor 49 Oklahoma 38
