Week 13: The Beginning of the End
OVERVIEW
November 27, 2015
Joe Broback
Only because I can harp on this for a couple more weeks: we need an expansion to the playoff. It is easier to justify the top eight this year than the top four, and any of the top eight is capable of winning the national championship. For those who may disagree, let’s take a look at the standing according the playoff committee. Ohio State is ranked eighth, but the only team that you can justify (with confidence) that is better than them is Oklahoma State. All of the teams ahead of Ohio State deserve to be there, no question, but teams from ninth and lower are harder to justify.
Stanford lost to Northwestern, who isn’t exactly an elite team. That loss alone is why Stanford is 9th. Michigan, Florida, Florida State, and North Carolina all have losses to unranked teams. Those teams are 10th, 12th, 13th, and 14th, respectively. At this point, you’re getting to #15 Navy (who hasn’t beaten a Power 5 school), the not so elite Wildcats who beat Stanford, and then you start into the three loss teams with Oregon. The teams 9th -14th could all have cases for the top eight (some the top 4) by next week, but it will be easier to leave some of them out.
One of the biggest complaints of the previous system (the BCS) was that only two teams were chosen when there were multiple teams that could have competed for the title. While it was good they expanded the number of teams to four, they should expand it one more time. Four is still too few. Last year there were more than four teams that deserved to be in the playoff and this year is no different. If anyone is wondering about revenue, tv ratings, and entertainment value, watch one of the top 25 games this week. There are more than two games like there would be in the playoff, and the benefits will be obvious to notice. TV ratings will spike because the quality of competition has increased, more people will be attending the games (increasing revenue of all kinds), and the games will be close. Forgive me, and maybe I’m clueless, but where is the negative in that?
Non Power 5 Playoff
*all rankings relative to this section
What a mess this top four has become. The playoff committee thinks they have it hard? Try picking a top four from these teams too. Every team has had a chance to prove themselves, and all but one has slipped up and played poorly in one game. The last chance comes this week for one team to show it is superior to the rest.
Four In:
#1 Navy Midshipmen (9-1)----Navy is that one team that still has a chance as their only loss is to Notre Dame, who has a chance to make the big boy playoff. Their chance to prove to us they are the top amongst the small school teams is tonight against Houston. The Cougars are coming off of a loss to UConn, so they will be focused and hungry for a win. A New Year’s bowl awaits if Navy can win, but Houston also still has a chance.
#2 Toledo Rockets (9-1)----Toledo received a gift when Northern Illinois lost to Ohio on Tuesday, meaning the Rockets can clinch the Mid American West with a win over Western Michigan tonight. If they lose, there will be more headaches trying to figure out who wins the West as there will be a three way tie. Toledo also has a chance to represent the Group of Five (too many names for these schools) New Year’s game, so that should motivate them enough to get the job done.
#3 Houston Cougars (10-1)----If you ask me, the Cougars game against Navy should determine who gets this New Year’s bid. It’s really down to these top three teams, and if Toledo loses it will be down to this game. Houston was stunned this past week against a surprisingly bowl-eligible Huskies team. The health of Greg Ward Jr’s ankle is a concern (although he did play when Kyle Postma went down), but it’s looking like he will be ready to play. If Houston can slow Navy’s triple option attack, they have a chance. If they can’t, they should ask Memphis what’s going to happen.
#4 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (9-2)----I want to apologize to the Hilltoppers, this year has been more of a team effort than I’ve made it out to be. But Brandon Doughty is just so fun to watch, I just can’t help it. WKU has a big matchup against Marshall this week, if they win the conference championship game, and a bowl game. Why do we need to know this? Last year, Doughty threw for 4,830 yards and 49 touchdowns, 1,323 yards and 18 touchdowns came in the last three games. Doughty has proved he plays well in big games, and if he repeats those performances (or even gets close), he would be on pace for 5,130 yards and 55 touchdowns. It will be tough for him to match those numbers, but don’t be shocked if he does.
Four Out:
#5 Temple Owls (9-2)----Temple followed up a brutal loss with an impressive win over Memphis. Temple can clinch the AAC East with a win over UConn, which Houston will say isn’t as easy as it sounds. While not unrealistic, Temple will need to fight to claim the New Year’s bowl big, but winning the AAC should be enough. Looking ahead to a bowl game isn’t a concern, but looking ahead to a conference championship will be. Temple needs to focus and not let UConn stay in the game.
#6 Marshall Thundering Herd (9-2)----Marshall’s play-in game isn’t as big as other play-in games for Power 5 teams. The winner of Marshall and Western Kentucky will be the Conference USA East representative in the championship. In case you need more hype going into this game, the Hilltoppers ruined the Herd’s perfect season last year in a 67-66 thriller where both quarterback’s combined for 15 touchdown throws. Don’t be surprised if it’s more of the same gameplan for both teams.
#7 BYU Cougars (8-3)----It’s really too bad the Cougars have been ignored mostly after the fourth week of the season, but maybe it will send them a message. A message to join a conference. With only three independent teams left, the tradition is still strong but may be hurting them. Besides Army, Notre Dame and BYU could get more recognition by joining a conference and playing for a title. Nevertheless, BYU is focused on Utah State before turning their attention to the postseason after whooping Fresno State 52-10.
#8 Memphis Tigers (8-3)----The Tigers join BYU on the list of teams that were once so thrilling to watch, only to have that excitement screech to a halt. Memphis now has lost three in a row and has wiped out any chance to play in January 2016. The best thing they can do is destroy SMU this week. Both sides of the ball have struggled the last three weeks, but they need to forget the disappointment and focus on SMU and their bowl game.
Other notables:
Bowling Green Falcons (9-3), Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-2), Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-3), Air Force Falcons (8-3), San Diego State Aztecs (8-3)
CFP PLAYOFF TEAMS
After you read this list, please tell me why there can’t be eight teams in the playoff. Any one of these teams has the ability to win it all, and it’s a shame that four won’t even get a chance. Part of the game, I know, but an expansion is still necessary. That being said, this week provides yet another week of excitement, chaos, and entertainment. Another week of top 25 matchups is ahead and will not disappoint college football fans. Every one of these top eight teams has an important game either this week or championship week. Some need more help, but all will need to focus on their games to ensure they have the best chance of making it to such an important postseason.
Teams in the playoff:
#1 Clemson Tigers (10-0)----Clemson beat Wake Forest 33-13. Not very exciting, but a pizza party is. Dabo Swinney said he would provide a pizza part when the first rankings came out if Clemson were to make the playoff. A test against South Carolina shouldn’t be too touch (the Gamecocks just lost to The Citadel), and North Carolina will await them in the ACC championship. Clemson needs to win both game as a loss eliminates them.
#2 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1)----Bama beat Charleston Southern 56-6. Again, not very exciting. No pizza party from Nick Saban. Double not exciting. What is exciting is the Tide appear to be on a mission to the playoff, and I don’t know if Auburn or Florida can stop them.
#3 Oklahoma Sooners (9-1)----Now things get interesting. Oklahoma survived a fourth quarter scare from TCU, a scare which involved the Horned Frogs going for two and actually had a man open, but the pass was knocked down. The concern is if Baker Mayfield can play, but reports are coming out saying he should be healthy for Saturday. They will definitely need him against Oklahoma State. A win and they could be in. A loss and they’re definitely out.
#4 Michigan State Spartans (10-1)----The Spartans and Hawkeyes are interchangeable at this spot, but I give the edge to Michigan State based on more quality wins. Iowa is undefeated, but their only impressive wins are against Wisconsin and Northwestern. Assuming both teams win their final regular season game, they would play for the Big Ten championship and presumably a birth into the playoff.
The Next Four:
#5 Iowa Hawkeyes (11-0)----Iowa fans may be upset they are being left out, but for the same reason I left Ohio State out, they haven’t played great competition. Iowa struggled to beat Wisconsin 10-6 and the Badgers were just removed from the committee’s top 25 but they beat Northwestern convincingly 40-10. If you compare the schedule and quality team they played, the Hawkeyes should be in this spot. For everyone that is upset, it can all change if Iowa wins the Big Ten. If they do that and are still left out, they have a legitimate reason to be upset.
#6 Baylor Bears (9-1)----Not much the Bears can do besides win their last two games. In case you haven’t heard, they need Oklahoma to lose this week. Baylor won’t be focused on that as much as they will be on how to stop Trevone Boykin. Boykin is returning from injury and is looking to ruin the Bear’s playoff aspirations. TCU is beat up, and Baylor has also been dealing with key injuries, but both teams know there are no excuses in this game.
#7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1)----A struggle against Boston College raised concerns this weekend, and Notre Dame needs to fix the issues BC exposed. Runningback CJ Prosise and top cornerback KeiVarae Russell are out for the game against Stanford, and that could have a big effect on the Irish. If Notre Dame beats Stanford, it will be difficult to justify leaving them out of the playoff, but winning on the road in Paulo Alto is no easy task.
#8 Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1)----Oklahoma State was brought back to earth pretty quickly after the loss to Baylor. The perfect season was gone, but the playoff hopes are still alive. Any desire they have to still make the playoff is mostly in their hands because they can beat Oklahoma to boost their resume, then hope other teams fall. It’s hard to believe that a two loss (both to top 10 teams) would eliminate them, but the margin for error is so thin. You can bet the home faithful will be loud for their team against a rival. And not only for the rival, but for the playoff.
GAMES OF THE WEEK
*all rankings are based on AP Poll
Overall Record: 27-21 Last week: 2-2
There are too many games to leave out a couple, so this week I pick six games. On top of that, all of these games are virtual coin flips. This week needs no introduction, so let’s get right into it.
#7 Baylor at #19 TCU
A Friday night game with a lot to gain and lose for both teams. TCU can’t make the playoff, but they are out to avenge their road loss last year when they blew a 21 point fourth quarter lead. Baylor still has a chance to make the playoff this year and the Horned Frogs would love to spoil those plans. Baylor is wondering who will play quarterback for them and how well he will do. Reports indicate Jarrett Stidham is unlikely to play, which leaves Chris Johnson. Johnson was moved back from receiver to backup Stidham when Seth Russell went down. TCU has dealt with so much adversity this year in the form of injuries, and somehow only has two losses. With Boykin back, the Frogs can do some damage, but they may not get much help from their defense once again.
My pick: Baylor 55 TCU 49
#8 Ohio State at #10 Michigan
Ah Buckeyes, I gave you a chance for a week, I really did. It was your first chance to show us you belonged, but you couldn’t do it. Time to move on, and it shouldn’t be hard. This game will not require individual introductions, just team and series explanations. Michigan leads the series 58-47-6, but Ohio State has had the upper hand lately. The Buckeyes have won the last three, and 10 of the last 11. Those number hardly scream rivalry, but it’s really more a trend than anything. The game is in Ann Arbor, which has a capacity of a little over 109,000. Capacity seems to be an afterthought in rivalry games as well over that capacity will be in attendance for this one. Both teams have chances to make the playoff (both need help) and both do not care for the other. Prepare for an intense, heated battle that could involve many scuffles. I’ve given both teams chances and picked them to win games and they blew it. Both teams lost on the last play of the game (both against Michigan State), but one was a fluke play. For that reason alone (because there seems to be no logic when picking these games sometimes), Big Blue will start a new trend.
My pick: UPSET SPECIAL: Michigan 24 Ohio State 20
#13 Florida State at #12 Florida
Maybe this week will be less about individuals and more about the team. Besides, if you don’t know who’s important on these teams by now, you haven’t been paying attention. Florida leads the series 34-23-2, but Florida State has won four of the last five. Before that, the Gators won 6 in a row. The Gators can still make the playoff, the Seminoles can’t even make their championship game. The biggest difference in this game is that it’s at the Swamp. Florida is 6-0 at home this year, and Florida State is 2-2 on the road. Both teams are playing well towards the end of the year, but home field advantage is a major factor this year.
My pick: Florida 28 Florida State 24
#6 Notre Dame at #9 Stanford
Notre Dame’s resume has been highlighted by the fact their only loss was to #1 Clemson. Then, we realized there isn’t much substance compared to the rest of the top 10. The Irish do have wins over a solid Pitt team, on the road against Temple, and at home against Navy, but those aren’t exactly statement wins. If they win this week, that should help immensely. Stanford had the best chance from the Pac-12 to get in the playoff, but fell to Oregon. Their loss to Northwestern at the beginning of the year is starting to hurt them more than expected. The Cardinal will be ready to play and will create problems with the Irish banged up on offense.
My pick: UPSET SPECIAL: Stanford 38 Notre Dame 28
#18 Ole Miss at #21 Mississippi State
Ah the Egg Bowl, the one game that will slip under the radar only because of the other games this week. If you’re sick of watching the same teams every week, tune in to this game. Dak Prescott vs Chad Kelly will be fun to watch. Both teams have proven they can score, but both have been inconsistent at times. Mississippi State’s losses are to LSU, Texas A&M, and Alabama while Ole Miss has lost to Florida, Memphis, and Arkansas. Mississippi State has yet to beat a top 25 team and Ole Miss has beat two. With experience comes reward for the Rebels.
My pick: Ole Miss 44 Mississippi State 40
#3 Oklahoma at #11 Oklahoma State
If Baker Mayfield plays, the Sooners will have a chance. If Trevor Knight play because Mayfield can’t, OU is in trouble. Unless Knight can channel his inner-Sugar-Bowl-against-Alabama magic, the offense will be one dimensional. Reports tell us Mayfield should play, and they will need him. Oklahoma State is coming off of a disappointing loss to Baylor and will be looking to ruin OU’s playoff hopes and bolster their own. Both offenses can put up points, but which defense will figure out the other? So far Oklahoma’s has shown it can perform.
My pick: Oklahoma 35 Oklahoma State 27
