Week 5 Preview
OVERVIEW
October 2, 2015
Joe Broback
Injuries seem to be ruling college football this year, which brings a team’s depth to the forefront. This is why coaches prepare the second and third string guys. Players never know when they will get their shot, so they prepare as if they will be playing every week. With the number of games featuring two ranked opponents, that depth and preparation will be necessary.
GRADUATE QB: HIT OR MISS
Coaches are constantly looking for depth and talent. Whether that’s recruiting a high school, junior college, or graduate transfer player, any talent is helpful. The latest trend (mostly thanks to Russell Wilson and Wisconsin) is quarterbacks graduating and transferring to another school where they are eligible immediately. There is so much hype surrounding these players, however, that doesn’t always guarantee results.
Everett Golson transferred from Notre Dame to Florida State, and the Seminoles are undefeated but haven’t looked spectacular. Golson was one of the most talked about potential transfers next to Braxton Miller in the offseason. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Greyson Lambert had very little hype surrounding him. Lambert had lost the starting job at Virginia, and was hoping another school would give him a chance. Georgia gave him a chance to fight for the starting position, and he hasn’t looked back. He has led the Bulldogs to an undefeated start and a showdown with Alabama this weekend. Lambert has looked composed and confident this season, but also hasn’t faced anyone of Alabama’s caliber. Head Coach Mark Richt is hoping Lambert can help launch the Bulldogs back into the conversation of elite SEC teams.
Graduate QB’s are always tough to gauge. Most of them aren’t usually allowed to transfer within a conference, so they transfer away to a new conference, which presents multiple challenges. Throw in having to get to know new teammates in a limited time, and the pressure is on. Jumping a whole level of football? That’s just insane. Vernon Adams Jr. came from Eastern Washington (FCS), and joined one of the elite teams in the FBS in Oregon. While an injury has prevented Adams from showing the nation what he’s capable of, Adams has shown he can compete with anyone when healthy (for the most part). Oregon’s chances of making the playoff have dropped significantly, but that has more to do with the defense than Adams.
Teams take a risk brining in a new player that grew up on another team. It’s not always guaranteed to work, but when put in the right system and mindset, a graduate can flourish. Put them in the wrong system or they get overwhelmed, and the team is back to square one to try and find a leader.
RANKING ON REPUTATION
One thing that should go away that won’t: preseason polls. They use nothing but previous years’ experience and potential success. There are no facts to go along with those rankings and nothing to prove that one team is better than another. This isn’t just for one team in particular, it’s for everyone. The rankings during the season are based off of games played, statistics, and the all-so-reliable eye test. While the eye test is technically more opinion based, a lot can be learned from watching a team play.
Take two of the teams in the playoff last year: Ohio State and Oregon. If the season were to end today (which is what the rankings are saying), both of these teams should not be in the playoff. The Buckeyes have struggled early in games and almost eliminated themselves against Northern Illinois. If you were to ask anyone if the Buckeyes deserved to be in the title game based off of how they played, the majority would say no. They returned a large number of players on both sides of the ball, however, last year was a different team. This year’s team may have many similar players, but last year has nothing to do with this year. The Oregon free fall is the perfect example as well. The Ducks have been ranked in the top ten for most of the season simply because of what they did in previous years. Their reputation is what got them to that ranking. While building a positive reputation is good, keeping it is difficult and should not be assumed. Oregon’s defense has struggled, and the offense isn’t what it used to be. Those two reasons are why the Ducks find themselves outside of the top 25. Now, while Ohio State has not lost, they definitely do not deserve to be the top ranked team in the nation.
Rankings are great, because they give fans something to hold on to during the season. They hype up games with a favorite and an underdog. The problem is, rankings are flawed. They need to be based on games and events that happen in the current season, not previous seasons. If the rankings were always based on previous years, Alabama would be the best team for the next ten years simply based off of Nick Saban’s reputation and players from the past. Ole Miss would like to remind you that those players weren’t around when the Rebels beat the Tide two weeks ago. Face the facts: don’t live in the past.
Group of Five (GO5) Playoff
*all rankings relative to this section
We have a new number 1! While this top ranked team doesn't get nearly as much attention as the nation's number 1, this team is still playing at a high level. the team right behind them is waiting to pounce on that top position should the top spot be vacant.
Four In:
#1 Toledo Rockets (3-0)----The state of Arkansas may not want to see Toledo for a while. The Rockets finished a sweep by beating Arkansas State Saturday 37-7. The defense forced five Red Wolves turnovers and started fast by scoring the games first 24 points. Toledo has Ball State this week, and is looking like a team with a chip on their shoulder. The Rockets should be unbeaten when they play Northern Illinois in a month while they try to keep their Cinderella story alive.
#2 Memphis Tigers (4-0)----A bit concerning when your defense gives up 43 points and 700+ yards in a game. But when you have Paxton Lynch leading your offense to 500+ yards and 56 points, you can let that fly for a little bit. The defense did come up with timely turnovers; none more important than a late interception thrown by Bearcat quarterback Hayden Moore while being sacked. The Tigers have one of the most explosive offenses in the country, and if the defense can produce some stops, the sky is the limit for this team.
#3 Temple Owls (3-0)----The Owls were off and are looking to bounce back from a poor showing against UMass in this weeks’ matchup with Charlotte.
#4 BYU Cougars (2-2)----While two losses looks bad when justifying a team staying in the top four, think about who they lost to. The blowout to Michigan looked bad, I’ll admit, but the Cougars had UCLA (a team that throttled Arizona) on the ropes. BYU gets UConn next, which isn’t exactly an easy game, but is a much needed break from playing three Power 5 teams along with Boise State.
Four Out:
#5 Boise State (3-1)----The Broncos thrashed Virginia on its way to a 56-14 win. Boise State started fast and never looked back, proving they are still as competitive as anyone else in the country. Brett Rypien threw for 321 yards and three scores for the Broncos, easing some of the nerves for the fans with their new quarterback. Bosie plays Hawaii and then has back to back games against Colorado State and Utah State. Those two games will tell us if the Boys on the Blue Turf are contenders.
#6 Houston (3-0)----Can we just skip to November? Houston put up 59 points in a rout of Texas State. November is when the Cougar's schedule gets heated for the conference race, and the day before November they play Vanderbilt to prove they can play with the big boys. Tom Herman is proving his offense can score anywhere and on anyone.
#7 Cincinnati (2-2)----At least the Bearcats didn’t lie down and roll over after losing Gunner Kiel. No one would have blamed them for giving up after their star was knocked out of the game on a scary hit to the head. Hayden Moore stepped in and three for 557 yards, showing they are in good hands for the future. Cincy doesn’t get a break this week as they play Miami, so they need to be as sharp as ever to turn their momentum around.
#8 Northern Illinois (2-2)----Tough to see. After playing admirably against the top team in the nation, the Huskies laid an egg against Boston College. BC’s defense made things difficult for Drew Hare (81 yards passing) as well as limiting the NIU offense to 156 total yards. The Huskies have no time to feel sorry for themselves, as they play Central Michigan this week. Could be a make or break game.
Other notables:
Ohio (3-1), Navy (3-0), Georgia Southern (3-1), Western Kentucky (3-1)
CFP PLAYOFF TEAMS
Week 5 will separate much of this group. There are multiple games that include two ranked teams which means one thing: the winning team strengthens their playoff resume, the losing team hopes they aren't eliminated. While the rankings didn't change much this week, next week looks to be a different story.
Teams in the playoff:
#1 Ole Miss (4-0)----The Rebels are going to need to play better when they visit the Gators at the Swamp. Jim McElwain has his team in the top 25 and believing things are turning around. This is the biggest trap game in the nation so far, and the Rebels better come prepared to uphold their top four ranking.
#2 Michigan State (4-0)----The Spartans finished nonconference play with a 30-10 win over Central Michigan. Two routs appear to be on the horizon as they play Purdue and Rutgers in consecutive weeks. This leads up to the game against Michigan which has become more interesting with the turnaround in Ann Arbor. That will be the next big test for MSU so don't fret too much about the Spartans until then.
#3 LSU (3-0)----Leonard Fournette had another monster game, but the game was closer than expected against Syracuse. Now the Tigers shift their attention to Eastern Michigan, a game which Fournette could run for 200 yards in the first quarter. A blowout is expected and anything less is cause for concern for Les Miles and his team.
#4 Notre Dame (4-0)----The Irish continue to impress everyone with their play. They put up 62 points against UMass and showed that it has an offense that is explosive. One of the biggest games for the Irish comes in Death Valley this Saturday against a Clemson team that is eager to show that it belongs in the playoff conversation.
Teams on the outside looking in:
Ohio State, Georgia, TCU, UCLA
GAMES OF THE WEEK/PICKEM
*all rankings are based on AP Poll
0-4 in upset specials, and this time it wasn’t even close. All of these games this week could be determined by the flip of a coin, which is alarming when one has to try and pick a winner.
Overall Record: 8-8 Last week: 2-2
#13 Alabama (3-1) at #8 Georgia (4-0)
Mark Richt says he doesn’t have an opinion on being favored in this game. That’s because he knows that means absolutely nothing when you’re playing a team coached by Nick Saban. The Crimson Tide playoff hopes all but hang by a thread, and a loss would presumably wipe them out completely. Georgia has not been tested this season, and what a test they will get. Bulldogs quarterback Greyson Lambert will be the X-factor in this game. Alabama is certainly going to load the box to defend against runningback Nick Chubb, and Lambert will have to soften that pressure in the box by making throws. Easier said then done against an Alabama defense. The Tide are looking to avenge their loss to Ole Miss at home. Last time they played in Athens, the Tide rolled past the Bulldogs. This time the tide has turned against them.
My pick: Georgia 28 Alabama 24
#6 Notre Dame (4-0) at # 12 Clemson (3-0)
My pick: Many gave up on Notre Dame when they lost their starting quarterback. Many have ignored Clemson because they play in a weak conference. Both have something to prove Saturday, and one of them will reach their goal. Both QB’s DeShone Kizer and DeShaun Watson will try to lead their teams in what should be a thrilling atmosphere. The Irish have the depth at every position, and the Tigers will need to find a way to stop Will Fuller. Death Valley is a tough place to play, and the jitters will finally get to Kizer. How he handles the adversity will show Irish fans how the game will end. Last time Clemson played in a game this hyped, they were embarrassed by the national champions (Florida State). They need to prove they can handle the big stage for the committee to consider them for the playoff. This would be step one, but the Irish are too good.
My pick: Notre Dame 31 Clemson 20
#23 West Virginia (3-0) at #15 Oklahoma (3-0)
The Mountaineers are coming into this game untested. The Sooners already have a signature win under their belt (although Tennessee keeps slipping). Baker Mayfield is proving that he is the right choice at quarterback, but it will be the defense that determines how the game goes. The Sooners have struggled to stop opposing offenses and West Virginia is not a team you want to give momentum to. The game is in Norman which will play to OU’s advantage, and the Sooners experience in big games will show.
My pick: Oklahoma 31 West Virginia 21
#21 Mississippi State (3-1) at #14 Texas A&M (4-0)
We all knew Dak Prescott and his Bulldogs would be back in the top 25, it was just a matter of time. Texas A&M has shown it isn’t taking a step back from last year with Kyle Allen under center. They also have a defense that will make things tough for Prescott & Co. Myles Garrett is one of the best players in the country at defensive end, and MSU better figure out how to block him quickly. The Bulldogs want to control the pace, and while A&M showed they can slow it down last week against Arkansas, they want to put up points fast. If they get to that speed, the Bulldogs are in trouble.
My pick: Texas A&M 35 Mississippi State 17
