Week 7
OVERVIEW
October 16, 2015
Joe Broback
MID SEASON REVIEW
College football is halfway done for some teams. It seems that the madness and chaos was just beginning and now half the season is gone. There have been many surprises this season, and also a large number of injuries. The roller coaster continued this week with upsets and statements by teams that surprise us. Three notable coaches were either let go or resigned from their position this week (USC’s Steve Sarkisian, South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier, and Maryland’s Randy Edsall). All three provided intrigue in their own unique situations, and leaving their teams with interim coaches to help turn around their seasons.
For those who think the playoff race has any clarity, you will be sadly mistaken with the second half of football. There hasn’t been a team that has claimed a spot in the top four. Teams are more doing just enough to win and are hoping that teams around them lose to get in. Some players have stepped into the spotlight and will not leave (ok mostly just Leonard Fournette), but some teams are showing one side of the ball is unstoppable. With the halfway point here, we look at some awards around the country.
Heisman Trophy Winner: RB Leonard Fournette, LSU---- Fournette has been the only reason their offense moves the ball down the field, which makes his stats even more impressive. LSU has handed the ball off to Fournette 119 times this year already (he had 187 carries last year). He has already surpassed his touchdown total from last year and is twelve yards away from surpassing his rushing yards total from 2014. LSU still has Florida (this week), Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M on the rest of their schedule, so Fournette’s production may slow down. However, if he keeps this pace up, he will be the only finalist in New York for the Heisman.
Best team: TCU---- The Horned Frogs defense has taken a hit almost every week so far, and it has shown that it will rely heavily on its offense to win games. The two games against Texas Tech and Kansas State have shown us what their offense is capable of doing. With Boykin, Aaron Green, and Josh Doctson on the field, the offense is nearly unstoppable. Make no mistake, TCU is going to put points on the scoreboard, but they still have the toughest part of their schedule left. If the defense can’t control the high scoring BIG 12 schedule, TCU will be out of the top four quickly.
Worst Team: Kansas---- There are plenty of teams that are worse than the Jayhawks, but when you consider the players they get, then you know they deserve the bottom spot. After losing to another Dakota team (South Dakota State) this year, the Jayhawks may want to pick a new conference to be in. KU just lost to Baylor 66-7 and it won’t get easier with Texas Tech this week, as well as having to still play TCU later this season.
Biggest Surprise Team: Utah---- The Utes for the last couple years could have won this award easily. They always seemed to have pulled one or two upsets that made your jaw drop, but this year they are proving they are the team to beat. Coming off an impressive win over Cal, the Utes are looking to make the playoff, not just more noise. The Pac 12 will not be kind to them, so they need to make sure they don’t slip against a team like they’ve been the last few years. If the defense plays like they did against Cal (5 interceptions) and Devontae Booker stays healthy, Utah will be in the playoff this year.
Biggest Letdown Team: Ohio State----Ole Miss could have this spot easily when the Rebels lost to Florida after they had just defeated Alabama. Only thing is, the Rebels didn’t have the hype that the Buckeyes did coming into this season. The infamous quarterback battle has turned into a quarterback headache, and coach Urban Meyer hopes to get that position settled. The one positive for Ohio State so far is they can give the ball to Ezekiel Elliott and expect positive results. The Buckeyes are 6-0 at this point, but arguably could be 3-3, and that’s not what you want if the committee is going to select you for the playoff.
Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, Michigan----If anyone has paid attention to the Wolverines for the last couple years, you know this honor is well deserved. Harbaugh’s presence alone had fans thinking positively, and now the Wolverines are producing on the field. Coming off an impressive shutout of #13 Northwestern, the Wolverines showed they are a contender. This week’s matchup against Michigan State should be a sneak peek to the Ohio State game, but Jim will tell you they’re focused on the Spartans.
Group of Five Playoff
*all rankings relative to this section
Just as the dust was settling from the madness created by these teams, they will stir everything up once again. Cincinnati plays BYU this week, and the loser may get knocked out of contention. Memphis has the potential to grab the top spot and make some noise this week against Ole Miss. One team (Toledo) has already defeated an SEC team (Arkansas), so the Tigers winning is not out of the question. Here is a midseason review of the top eight.
Four In:
#1 Toledo Rockets (5-0)----Toledo’s closest games were against Power 5 teams (Arkansas and Iowa State), but have handled the other teams on their schedule. The defense is as good as anyone’s, and the offense has some weapons as well. The Rockets should be 7-0 going into the matchup against Northern Illinois, but can’t be complacent if they want their record to remain unscathed.
#2 Memphis Tigers (5-0)----The Tigers matchup against Ole Miss is the biggest game this season for any of these eight teams. Memphis has shown it can put up points in a hurry, but the main concern is the defense. The offense is putting up almost 48 points per game (8th in total offense in the nation), and the Tigers are winning by an average of 21 points. Take out the first game against Missouri State, and the Tigers are only winning by a margin of ten points. Their defense needs to shape up if they are going to continue this pace (103rd in the nation in yards per game), and that won’t help them against Ole Miss.
#3 Boise State Broncos (5-1)----The Broncos seem to be back to their typical form. They have a top 25 offense and defense and are playing like Bronco teams from the past. The one loss to BYU stings, but Boise has beaten two power 5 teams in Washington and Virginia. Their next test is this week against Utah State, but after that it should be smooth sailing. The playoff committee won’t include the Broncos this year, but they can make a case for a New Year’s bowl game.
#4 Temple Owls (5-0)----Temple’s offense seems to have been revived in the last two games. Two wins against Penn State and Cincinnati got the Owls off to a quick start, and they survived a hiccup against UMass to remain undefeated. The Owls defense is ranked 29th in total yards, but the offense still needs to produce. The Owls have two tough games against Eastern Carolina and Notre Dame coming up, but they should be competitive in both. The Temple defense will need to be strong in both games and continue to carry the team.
Four Out:
#5 BYU Cougars (4-2)----BYU played what will compete for most exciting month of football to start their season. It’s been a well-documented run, but now the Cougars must move on. They may have gotten caught looking towards their matchup with Cincinnati this week, as they slipped past Eastern Carolina 45-38. After the game against the Bearcats, BYU has one more Power 5 matchup against Missouri. The Cougars won’t need a pep talk for that game, because they will be ready. Both Cincinnati and Missouri games are at home, so the home crowd will help BYU immensely.
#6 Houston Cougars (5-0)----Under the category: the team you think you know but really don’t. Tom Herman has his Cougars flying around the field, and has turned Greg Ward Jr. into a dual threat that gives defensive coordinators headaches. Ward’s stats so far: 1301 yards passing with 8 touchdowns to only 1 interception, and 560 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Houston is sixth in the nation in total yards on offense, and Ward is a tremendous part in that production. The Cougars haven’t had a slip up yet, but they can’t sleep on any team they play in the future, or they will get beat.
#7 Cincinnati Bearcats (4-2)----The Bearcats have struggled in two losses against Temple and Memphis (both losses). They surprised many by beating Miami, but will need to play nearly perfect when they travel to play BYU. A loss will make things extremely difficult for the Bearcats to make this list again, but a win could boost them up.
#8 Navy Midshipmen (4-1)----Navy knew the test against Notre Dame was going to be tough, but they didn’t anticipate losing their star player. QB Keenan Reynolds left the game, and wiped out any chance (though very little to start) Navy had of winning. Navy’s triple option offense has given teams trouble all season, and the only bad game they played was against the Irish.
Other notables:
Western Kentucky (5-1), Ohio (5-1), Georgia Southern (4-1), Bowling Green (4-2)
CFP PLAYOFF TEAMS
Teams in the playoff:
#1 TCU Horned Frogs (6-0)----The Horned Frogs are scoring at an absurd pace this season (51 points per game), which is good for 3rd in the nation. The only two teams above them are two teams in their conference (Texas Tech and Baylor). Defensively, they’re 77th in scoring defense. That disparity is cause for concern if you are a fan in Fort Worth, because TCU still has to play the toughest part of their schedule. So far, the offense has shown they can carry the team, but that won’t last long if the defense doesn’t improve.
#2 Utah Utes (5-0)----The Utes shocked many not just by beating Oregon, but by destroying Oregon in a way that the Ducks are unaccustomed. The Utes won by 42 and sent Oregon to a place they are unfamiliar (the Ducks are now 3-3 and in danger of not making a bowl game). Utah followed that dominating performance with another stellar effort against Cal. The Utes have been tough to beat in the past, but now they are the team to beat this season.
#3 Baylor Bears (5-0)----The difference between Baylor and TCU is that Baylor’s defense can stop someone. Granted, the Bears competition has been less than stellar, but they still have smashed teams when they needed to while preserving their starters by pulling them with large leads. Baylor’s schedule may work in their favor, because they will be well rested when they play the last three games of their schedule (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU). This week they have West Virginia, who gave the Bears their only loss last year, and are out for revenge.
#4 Clemson Tigers (5-0)----In case you haven’t heard, coach Dabo Swinney doesn’t like the word “Clemsoning” and you shouldn’t use it. He has a point, because the Tigers are as good as any team in the nation year in and year out. This year, the Tigers made a statement by beating Notre Dame in some of the worst conditions to play in. All signs point to November 7th when Florida State comes to town, but Swinney knows they can’t overlook anyone on their schedule.
Teams on the outside looking in:
LSU Tigers (5-0)----LSU almost is starting to look like they are having the same issues as Ohio State. Their quarterback play is average, the running game is all they have for weapons, and the defense does just enough to help them win. The difference is LSU has played three SEC games already. The Tigers haven’t blown anyone out of the water besides Auburn, and Florida comes to town with tons of momentum. Florida presents a tough challenge, but LSU will be ready since they have already survived Mississippi State.
Michigan State Spartans (6-0)----It’s getting really hard to justify having a BIG Ten team in the top four lately. Rutgers handed Michigan State the ball when they went for a spike on fourth down (oops), but MSU is lucky to get out of there with a win. They also struggled the week before against Purdue. These lackluster efforts will not suffice this week against Michigan on the road. Now that the Wolverines are relevant again, Michigan State will have to prove those previous two games are in the past.
Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0)----Just another average performance overall for everyone on the Buckeyes sideline. They are still undefeated, but cannot continue to play average if they are to remain undefeated. There isn’t one game on the Buckeye’s schedule that has been impressive, but a strong showing against Penn State could change that.
Florida Gators (6-0)----Right under Utah for surprise of the year is Florida. The Gators shocked the nation by stomping Ole Miss, but now are more concerned with who will be under center. QB Will Grier was suspended for a year for taking performance enhancing drugs, and the Gators now turn to Treon Harris. UF has played well enough overall that will hide the loss of Grier, but they will need to play well against LSU and Leonard Fournette to prove they are contenders.
GAMES OF THE WEEK/PICKEM
*all rankings are based on AP Poll
Overall Record: 13-11 Last week: 3-1
#8 Florida at #6 LSU
Last year, both teams were irrelevant in the playoff chase, but in Week 7 this year, they are competing to keep their top ten spot. Florida is hurt by the loss of Will Grier, but they are confident with Treon Harris at the helm. Death Valley is a monster that the Gators hope to contain. Speaking of monsters, they also have to contain Leonard Fournette. If they can’t do both, Death Valley and the Tigers will bury the Gator’s hopes for a playoff berth. Harris may be a capable starter, but his first start of the year will present issues the Gators may not fix.
My pick: LSU 24 Florida 17
West Virginia at #2 Baylor
You can bet the Bears had this date circled after losing on the road to the Mounaineers. This game will be Baylor’s first real competition (Texas Tech wasn’t really a challenge), and you can bet West Virginia is ready. The game is in Waco, which give Baylor the advantage and should help their defense slow the Mountaineers’ offense. Baylor QB Seth Russell has looked solid in every game, and this could be the first game he doesn’t get pulled do to a large lead. Baylor’s 2015 campaign to the playoff will continue.
My pick: Baylor 49 West Virginia 24
#10 Alabama at #9 Texas A&M
Johnny Manziel is the reason this game is more than two ranked teams, and he won’t even be playing in it. Manziel helped the Aggies upset the Tide three years ago in Tuscaloosa, which put A&M on the SEC map. Aggies QB Kyle Allen looks to make his own mark in this new “rivalry”, but it won’t be easy against a Bama team whose backs are against the walls. The Tide went to Athens and shut down Georgia, and look to do the same in College Station. Another loss may eliminate Alabama, and that’s motivation enough to get Nick Saban’s team fired up. Hard to believe this is considered an upset.
My pick: UPSET (not really that) SPECIAL: Alabama 38 Texas A&M 28
#7 Michigan State at #12 Michigan
Oh my how BIG Ten country has yearned for this game to be hyped up again. The matchup was always filled with passion and intensity, but they hype had died when Michigan started to slip up under Brady Hoke and Rich Rodriguez. Michigan hasn’t won since 2012 and has lost six of the last seven games against the Spartans. Coach Jim Harbaugh knows all about this rivalry having played in it himself, and will get his team ready to compete. MSU coach Mark Dantonio has his team in a great position to move into the top 5 with a win, but a loss would certainly be a fatal blow for the Spartans playoff chances. In a conference where many said it was a two team race, Michigan is making those people uncomfortable. The game’s in Ann Arbor, and the crowd will be buzzing about the game and will make life difficult for Spartans QB Connor Cook and his offense. Big Blue is back!
My pick: UPSET (pretty dang) SPECIAL: Michigan 28 Michigan State 27
