Why Your Favorite AAC Team Will and Won't Make a Playoff Run
A Power 6 movement has begun in the AAC, whether college football is ready or not. At AAC Media Days, commissioner Michael Aresco unveiled a new marketing campaign for the conference to join the other Power 5 conferences. There are numerous teams that can compete with Power 5 competition, and they have proven it in the past. Houston beat Oklahoma and Louisville last year, and both of those teams ended in the Top 25. This year, the big game is Memphis vs UCLA. The Bruins make the trip east, and the pressure could not be higher. If the Tigers can pull out a win, they may be thrust into the College Football Playoff conversation. Like the 2016 Cougars, Memphis needs to still navigate a tough conference schedule should they upset UCLA. Those two teams will have to unseat USF, who is the front-runner in the conference and has dark horse Heisman candidate Quinton Flowers. If you need an underdog conference to watch, the AAC should be high on your list this season.
PREVIOUSLY: ACC, C-USA, BIG 12, MAC, PAC-12, MOUNTAIN WEST, SEC, SUN BELT
TEMPLE
WILL: Defense wins championships, and the Owls certainly know a thing or two on that side of the ball. Geoff Collins’ defenses at Florida were high performers the last two years, and he takes over a similar situation at Temple. After appearing in both American Athletic Conference championship games, the Owls next step should be on loftier goals. Temple is the only AAC team to achieve double digit wins in the last two years, and that level of success has become the expectation.
WON’T: Temple went 2-3 in non-conference play, which included wins over Stony Brook and Charlotte, and finished 66th in yards per game offensively. You would expect that production from a second year starter, but that’s what the Owls did with four year starter Phillip Walker. Now he’s gone and there isn’t a proven option to replace him. Also, the Owls had 10 wins the last two years, but did you really think they had a chance of making the playoff?
NAVY
WILL: Ever stopped a triple option before? Good luck if you haven’t. It’s not an offense that many teams see on a regular basis, and an efficient triple option can dice up any defense. Navy finished fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game, but also finished second in passing yards per attempt as well. Basically, Ken Niumatalolo has figured out how to plug and play on offense, and has plenty of talent to score points. So don’t sleep on this offense, because they will gash you. Am I right SMU?
WON’T: I’m trying to decide who was more scared to play a game: Zach Abey vs Army or the Little Giants after Becky told them she wasn’t playing right before the game. Crappy situation either way. Too bad Abey didn’t have an Ice Box or a fumblerooski to bail him out. Abey better find some composure before 2017.
EAST CAROLINA
WILL: Jimmy Williams becomes an even better version of Zay Jones and Thomas Sirk becomes the best Group of 5 quarterback this season. Sirk’s dual threat abilities are huge for a team that struggled to run the ball last season, and he will make the offense more balanced. The defense will need to improve after giving up 453 yards and 36.1 points per game last year. I’m not saying it won’t happen, but a lot needs to go right for the Pirates.
WON’T: FCS champ James Madison, at West Virginia, Virginia Tech, South Florida, Temple, at UCF, BYU and at Houston. That’s how ECU starts the year, meaning they could (and probably will) be winless until November.
HOUSTON
WILL: Their roster is still loaded with talent. Don’t forget, Kyle Allen and Ed Oliver (above) are former five star recruits, and both will be huge contributors in the fall. The Cougars return 15 starters from last season, and should have plenty of competition at the open positions. With Greg Ward Jr at quarterback last season, Houston finished 17th in passing at 296.3 yards per game. Now that they have a pass-first option at quarterback, the offense will be more dangerous than last season. Oliver is also the best defensive tackle in the nation, and will lead a defense that returns many of its top tacklers. Oh, and there is significantly less pressure on this team than last year.
WON’T: Inconsistency troubled both sides of the ball last season. While former defensive coordinator Todd Orlando did a good job elevating the defense, there were times where his group struggled (mainly against Navy, SMU, and Memphis). The offense only had two games last season in which they failed to score 30 or more points. Early games against UT-San Antonio, Arizona, and Texas Tech could be problematic as well.
UCONN
WILL: Randy Edsall provided some magic in his first tenure as UConn’s head coach. His 2010 team made it to the Fiesta Bowl before he departed to Maryland. Linebackers Junior Joseph and Vontae Diggs return to lead what should be another solid defense. Edsall also somehow lured former Auburn offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee to UConn, and his work with the quarterbacks should yield large dividends. No one is expecting a playoff run from this team but, then again, no one expected 2010 to happen either.
WON’T: This isn’t basketball.
TULANE
WILL: Tulane brings back eight starters from a group that was good at defending the pass (35th in yards per game). Parry Nickerson returns to lead what was a young group last season, and will be looking to improve on his four interceptions this year. Up front, the defensive line returns plenty of depth even with the loss of DT Tanzel Smart. Coach Willie Fritz also returns eight starters on offense, and that experience should lead to improved production as well. Jonathan Banks has been making good impressions so far, and the Green Wave are expecting big things from him.
WON’T: It’s a proven fact that if you cannot score an equal or greater amount of points than your opponent, you can’t win the game. The Green Wave averaged a three point deficit in 2016, and that mostly had to do with the offense. They were able to run the ball well, finishing 26th in yards per game, but only averaged 113 yards through the air. Lastly, ending the game in single digits usually doesn’t mean great things, and the Green Wave did that three times last year. While Fritz has them headed in the right direction, they have a long way to go.
UCF
WILL: In his three years as offensive coordinator at Oregon, Scott Frost produced a Top 5 offense nationally. His impact on the Knights was an increase in nearly 100 yards and 15 points offensively. While he is known for his offensive production, Frost brought Erik Chinander from Oregon to help shape up the defense. The result was a reduction in 80 yards and 13 points per game, and a 28 point swing in your favor is never a bad thing. Quarterback McKenzie Milton took big steps in his development last season, and is expected to take more this year. The defensive front seven has some potential stars and the secondary should be just fine despite losing all four starters.
WON’T: Things could get rough if no one emerges in the secondary. Griffin is good, but can’t do everything himself. Scoring a lot of points may be in store for the Knights, but so is giving up a ton if the defense can’t finds replacements. Milton’s progression isn’t guaranteed either, and he is just a sophomore.
CINCINNATI
WILL: Cincinnati used to be one of the most consistent threats in college football, but struggles under their former coach halted that momentum. Now, a new fiery former Ohio State coordinator has been hired and is already taking steps to change the culture. No, it’s not Houston circa 2015, it’s Cincinnati this year. The Bearcats are hoping to get back to Group of 5 prominence and that Luke Fickell will take them there. Fickell’s energy is contagious, and Cincinnati has some pieces in place already. That could be just enough to surprise people.
WON’T: Quarterback was as unsettling as you could get in 2016, and it doesn’t get better. Hayden Moore and Ross Trail return, and former Ohio State recruit Torrance Gibson adds to the mix. This is a difficult situation to fix, and consistency is the biggest question. Moore’s confidence will need to be high, but just ask Houston how quickly things can change.
SMU
WILL: Chad Morris is one of the hottest new head coaches in college football, and he is expected to improve an offense that showed flashes of explosiveness. QB Ben Hicks and WR Courtland Sutton (above) return to lead a lethal passing attack, and junior Braeden West returns after a 1,000 yard sophomore campaign. These Mustangs were dangerous in Morris’ second year at the helm, but his third could be even better with the weapons he returns. West and Sutton have plenty of depth behind them to keep the pressure off themselves, and an improved defense makes this team dangerous.
WON’T: SMU’s schedule is largely unforgiving, with plenty of difficult matchups. Road trips to Houston, Navy, and Memphis as well as home games against Tulsa and UCF await, and all of those teams will be competing for a conference title shot. Throw in a non-conference road trip to TCU, and SMU’s schedule becomes even more difficult. Oh, and SMU’s basketball team plays better defense. I think I heard that Navy just scored again.
TULSA
WILL: Along with Morris, Philip Montgomery may be finding a new home if 2017 goes well for Tulsa. Offensively, the Golden Hurricane has three offensive lineman who will potentially be first team All-Conference, and that will help tremendously for whoever wins the quarterback position. Chandler Miller, Evan Plagg, and Tyler Bowling will solidify the offensive line, and that’s something every coach covets. D’Angelo Brewer was phenomenal while sharing a backfield last season, and will be better this year now that James Flanders is gone.
WON’T: Too many important players need to be replaced. First, there’s the quarterback. Montgomery was able to plug and play while at Baylor, but the talent level isn’t nearly the same at Tulsa. Also, the top two receivers need to be replaced after they both surpassed the 1,000 yard mark. Thankfully those three lineman decided to stay, because this team would struggle to make bowl game without them. Some pieces are returning, but there is just too much skill that needs to be replaced in order to make a run.
USF
WILL: Quinton Flowers is the Group of 5’s version of Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, and you should definitely check out his highlights if you haven’t done so already. Flowers is thrilling to watch, and he now gets paired with another outstanding offensive coordinator in Sterlin Gilbert. Defensively, the Bulls should be vastly improved under defensive-minded head coach Charlie Strong. Their schedule also is in their favor at 105th hardest in the country.
WON’T: Flowers can’t do everything himself. RB Marlon Mack and WR Rodney Adams were two weapons at Flowers’ disposal last year, but are now gone. The defense also leaves something to be desired after being near the bottom in most statistical categories in 2016. There are a number of things that need to happen, and none guarantee success by themselves. Flowers needs to find new weapons, they need to gel quickly before the season, and the defense needs to learn how to stop someone. That’s a pretty tough list to produce, and even more difficult to get all three at once.
MEMPHIS
WILL: Riley Ferguson threw for over 3,000 yards and 32 touchdowns in his first year on campus, and eight other starters return on offense. Simply put, this offense will be extremely difficult to stop. Anthony Miller returns as one of the top receivers in the nation, and players like Tony Pollard and Phil Mayhue will contribute in the passing game as well. Mike Norvell has done a great job taking over for Justin Fuente (now at Virginia Tech), and he could be the next coach to attract Power 5 head coaching attention. Week 3 against UCLA will be the biggest game of their season, and could be the game that launches them into the national conversation.
WON’T: It seems like the AAC’s biggest question in general is defense, and the Tigers aren’t an exception. The bowl game against Western Kentucky was difficult to watch for any Tigers fan, and that will need to be an area of improvement for Memphis to reach their goals in 2017. Not all of their issues rest on the defense alone, as a young offensive line showed its inexperience last year as well. Ferguson was sacked a conference-leading 33 times last year (tied for 13th most in the nation). If Memphis’ offense wants to be lethal, Ferguson needs to stay upright, and the line will need to show that last year’s struggles will result in success this year.
