Early Reactions
The NBA season has started, and with it the fruits of one of the craziest offseasons in recent history. From Kevin Durant and the Warriors to Joel Embiid's long anticipated debut, there are so many questions about this new season, and after a week we have enough to make some early guesses about what's to come
1. The Warriors aren't the superteam we thought they were.
Sure the Warriors are still 4-1, but Golden State was supposed to be dominating the entire league with Curry and Durant on the same team. Their offense has been pretty decent so far, but with the amount of weapons they have it's slightly disappointing. One major suspect of this is Stephen Curry, who so far has had some underwhelming games, as while he has still had some good games, it's not quite on the same level it was a year ago. This is still a good place for a lead guard of his caliber in the NBA, but it's not quite the magic that he encapsulated with his game winning him MVPs. This may be due in part by Kevin Durant, who has been shining in his new home despite the old guard faltering a little bit, and so far looks like the new number one while Curry is relegated to a two spot, at least while Durant has the hot hand. Either way, their offense has definitely gotten better, but its not quite the astronomical levels they were pinned to have.
Their real problem lies in their defense though, as they have been surprisingly bad at defense these first few games, and at times it slows them down. The rim protection Bogut provided is severely missed, and although Zaza Pachulia is a fine defender in his own right, playing him for too long will result in him wearing out by the end of the season, as shown by his fall off after the All-Star break last season. This means that there is less of a margin for error for the perimeter defense, but the Splash Brothers so far have both been playing mediocre at best defense, but it has more to do with them getting beat then them not putting in the effort to defend. Either way, any bruising, defensive team has a good shot against them, as shown in the season opener against the Spurs. However, despite these shortcomings, the Warriors will still probably get the best record in the NBA, just not as ridiculous as many people anticipated.
2. James Harden will win MVP.
With all the buzz and location changes during the offseason, it was hard to notice the polarizing figure, who at once is the most underrated and overvalued player in the NBA, with his unparalleled offense matched only by his putrid defense. However, in a new system with Mike D'Antoni, who is notorious for valuing offense much more than defense, Harden's offensive talent may start to shine even more, freed from the shackles of Kevin Mchale's oversimplified system going to one of the best offensive minds in basketball. So far, Harden has been put in the position of lead guard and ballhandler, which has led to him averaging nearly 30/10 a game over the past week. These kind of numbers, while not entirely sustainable, are a testament to how well he fits in the system already despite him being completely new to it. While he has also been turnover prone in these games, being the lead ballhandler for so many plays will often make any player more susceptible to mistakes, Nevertheless, this and his mediocre three point shooting so far may hold him back from reaching all world status, but the bearded guard is still absolutely the most valuable player on the team if they want to make the playoffs.
The major topic talking about James Harden has nothing to do with his talent, though, but in fact the lack of talent he has on the defensive end of the ball. He has the tools to be at least a net neutral player on defense, but he just doesn't put enough effort into playing good defense to reach this potential. He has shown in the past that, when he does put effort, he can be an adequate defender, such as during the 14-15 season, where he was runner-up for MVP. However, he moved to Atlanta, taking with him the safety net he provided for the entire team, and in his place is Clint Capela, who does have some defensive potential, but is still rough around the edges and inexperienced. To be a real competitor, Harden must start putting in some defensive effort into his play, even if it means sacrificing a few possessions on offense, to contribute to the team even if his shot is off, or at the very least not make any extra work for the other four teammates he has on the floor during crunch time. However, if his defense comes to even an average level and he keeps the offensive production up, the former player's MVP may get the real deal this year.
3. The Miami Heat will tank.
The offseason was definitely not kind to the Heat, as they lost Dwyane Wade to free agency in a shocking move to the Heat after a disconnect on his worth, and Chris Bosh's career may be over after team doctors refused to clear him, ruling him out for the entire season regardless of whether he returns. Both of these losses impact how the Heat are able to play their game, as without a surefire number one option to go to they've had to instead gather from the collective group as a whole, and while it may be working in the short term, with Dragic and Whiteside averaging 39.8 points per game combined, Dragic is aging and Whiteside has a very limited offensive game, and so both will most likely fall off over the course of the season as fatigue sets in and defenses adjust accordingly to their limited shotmaking ability. Even more questions arise when you look beyond those two, as Justise Winslow and Dion Waiters, two of their starters, have been shooting well under 40% from the field, making it so leaving both of these players on the floor at the same time leads mostly to disaster, but Winslow has been pretty good on the other side of the ball, however this doesn't make up for the fact that he kills what little spacing that they have. Meanwhile, Waiters has just been bad, taking shots he shouldn't and trying to play for points instead of wins.
However, these players, with the exception of Dragic, are all young and most likely have their best years ahead of them, so Miami won't be in this spot for very long, especially with Josh Richardson coming off of injury soon. To add to this, Tyler Johnson off the bench has been a very impactful sixth man on offense, shooting over 50/50/90 so far in this young season. With these two adding on to all the other talent stockpiled up, they have quite a pool of young talent, but they're missing a true star prospect, maybe partially due to the fact that they thought that they would be able to retain Wade and Bosh for at least another year or two, but the way things are, there doesn't seem to be any true number one talent to step into the hole that the aforementioned stars left in their wake. After this season, if they could put themselves in a position to obtain a star to fill the gap, draft or otherwise, they would morph into another future contender, but the problem is that getting said star isn't very easy most of the time, especially when you're stuck at middle ground. But, if they tank a bit, then they can get a top ten lottery pick and see how it goes from there.
