Breakout Post #1
This is mostly just to prove to myself that I can write something that doesn't hit 1500 words. I wanted to highlight Greg Bird as a breakout candidate. He is getting some love as a sleeper. He isn't a sleeper unless you are in a bad league. In 2015 he played 46 with 11 hr and an .871 OPS. He missed last year with a bum shoulder. If he was a pitcher I would care. I wouldn't touch him. But rarely do teams rely on their starting 1bs pitching abilities. The shoulder injury does make me expect he may start off slow. I don't know if I should say expect, but it won't surprise. I think he has enough positives to get past that if it's the case though.
First, I don't hate the Yankee lineup. Plenty of solid or better hitters means plenty of rbi and run opportunities. Left handed power hitter in a park built for them. He should have the 1b job for sure. Yes, Tyler Austin is around but the Yankees and especially Cashman LOVE Bird. Matt Holiday is not a threat to take much time away at 1b. He will be DHing. If Holiday is at 1b often it is because things went south for both Bird and Austin.
The reason I am all over Bird this year is his exit velocity from 2015. He ranked 6th in MLB unless you throw out the two guys in front of him with less than 100 PA (Jose Tabata and Carlos Peguero), then he ranks fourth. Why does this random stat mean anything? Because the three players ranked in front of him are Stanton, Sano, and Miggy. All known for solid power. Immediately behind Bird....Ortiz, Bautista, Nelson. The dude has some power. And his park should only help.
If Bird hits .260 with 25 hr this year I will be happy with my purchase. If he hits better, I know I got a deal when I bought him. Long term, in Yankee Stadium 40 hr is not a crazy thought. He was a .282 milb hitter with a .395 OBP. He gets on base enough to get a few runs, although, speed is, ugh, not his game. Because of the injury I probably still don't go into a season with Bird as my primary 1b, but if you grab him as insurance on a boring Hosmer or pair him with any of the 2nd and 3rd tier 1bs I think that's a solid plan for this year.