NFL Updates, Week 4 Spread Picks and Projections, and First Power Rankings!
What a start to the year.
This year the NFL and our National school system have 1 big thing in common: A lot has happened in the first 3 weeks. I won't go into detail about the craziness that has been my life but I do want to touch on the NFL and get caught up on what has happened over the past couple of weeks (without getting too political).
Here are some highlights:
AFC
- The Patriots have seemingly righted the ship since their loss in week 1 to the Chiefs. Tom Brady has been at the top of the NFL in many passing categories (at 40 years old...let that sink in a little). The defense has continued to improve but the weakness at the linebacker position seems to somehow appear in every game. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a trade to ensure they can count on consistency at the position. Not to mention they have allowed a league high 95(!) points through 3 games.
- Staying in the AFC east, the Bills are somehow 2-1 despite seeming to have no one on offense outside of Shady McCoy. The fact they were able to not only put up more than 3 scores on the Broncos but also beat them is very impressive. This is a team I am cautiously optimistic about moving forward with a tough test against a great Falcons team this week before heading to face off against the Bengals.
- In the AFC South, Jacksonville and Tennessee are both off to great starts at 2-1 however, they look like very different teams. The Titans have looked strong since their opening week loss to the Raiders. With against the aforementioned Jacksonville as well as a (supposedly) strong Seattle team, they have looked like the team to beat in that division behind a strong defense and a QB in Marcus Mariota who is really coming into his own. Jacksonville on the other hand is a different story. Week 1 their defense completely shuts down a somewhat weak Houston Texans offense while scoring almost 30 points. They follow that up by being blown out by Tennessee and then flying to London where they shut down a hot Ravens team and once again score over 30. It is really hard for me to get a good read on this team. Fournette is the obvious focal point but they are sticking to a decent amount of zone read with him when they should be trying to run more pro style, straight ahead plays to maximize his strength and speed combination. The defense has a lot of potential but so far a lot of that potential has only been seen on a small scale. jury is still out.
- Finally, let's take a look at my pick to win the Super Bowl this year, the Pittsburgh Steelers. So far I have been completely disappointed with every aspect of this team, outside of TJ Watt (Surprise? Not really) who is my pick for Defensive Player of the Year. You heard it here first. The offense seemingly can't run the ball, which shouldn't happen given the amount of talent they have. Antonio Brown has been a monster but that hasn't translated into any success on the ground or into any other WRs getting opportunities downfield (see: Bryant, Martavis). I'm a huge Le'Veon Bell fan but with an inconsistent offensive line and a lack of play action in the offense (which makes no sense to me) he has struggled to get going and break those long runs Steelers fans are accustomed to. I look for them to eventually right the ship and get on track in time for a showdown with Kansas City in 3 weeks.
NFC
- I can't hold in my excitement about Vikings (I mean Dalvin Cook) any longer. This guy is a machine. I'm usually a big stickler on drafting guys who have off the field issues but this is an exception to that rule. Obviously a good portion of his success has to be attributed to the Offensive Line who have played remarkably well given what they went through last year. Less zone runs and more straight ahead, iso type of run plays have accounted for this success as well. I also have to talk about Case Keenum even though I'm not sold on him. Last week the Bucs were down 4 defensive starters to start the game and ended the game with a few more being hurt which is a cause for concern when it comes to Keenum. He did make some great throws to push the ball downfield to Diggs and Thielen but he also missed a couple of throws he should have made. The guy played great but I'm not holding my breath. Defensively, the Vikings looked string again. Trae Waynes actually looked like a capable defensive back and Xavier Rhodes shut down Mike Evans all game. This on top of the Vikings defense not giving up any room on the ground. It was great to see the whole team play well coming into 3 straight divisional games.
- In the NFC South the Falcons are still rolling after last year with not only their offense playing great but their defense is a top 10 defense as well making them (SPOILER) my #1 team in my power rankings for that reason. The Carolina Panthers are one of the biggest stories in the NFL right now because while they sit at 2-1 on the year, if you just watched them play all 3 of their games, it looks like they should be 0-3. The offense has scored the 4th lowest amount of points in the league through 3 weeks with a former MVP at QB, two running backs that complement each other very well, and a talented group of receivers. Now, I know Olsen is injured now and Benjamin was just recently injured as well, but come on. Prior to those injuries they were still terrible, especially Newton. Incredibly inaccurate, no urgency in the pocket, and very passive in his selection of throws. Leads me to believe there is more to his shoulder surgery from the offseason, which is scary. They should be thanking their lucky stars for the defense they have.
- Speaking of teams who are underperforming, the Seahawks seem to have forgotten how to score points. They are just above the Panthers at 7th lowest in the league and have looked almost as bad. In their week 3 game against the Titans they were finally able to score some points but their usually reliable defense was no where to be found. The revolving door at running back seems to be slowing down as Chris Carson has really stepped up while Thomas Rawls seem to be the odd man out for carries. Russell Wilson has also been scrambling more, which usually isn't too bad for him as he is a very accurate mobile QB, but this year he hasn't been as accurate out of the pocket and his WRs are not getting open as frequently. This is just as much of a problem with the offensive line as it is with anyone else.
Week 4 Picks
Chicago at Green Bay, GB -6.5, Green Bay
New Orleans at Miami, NO -3, NO
L.A. Rams at Dallas, Dallas -6, Dallas
Tennessee at Houston, Tenn. -1.5, Tennessee
Detroit at Minnesota, no line, Minnesota
Buffalo at Atlanta, Atlanta -8, Atlanta
Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Pitt. -2.5, Pittsburgh
Cincinnati at Cleveland, Cin. -3, Cincinnati
Carolina at New England, NE -9, New England
Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets, Jack. -3, Jacksonville
San Francisco at Arizona, Ariz. -7, San Francisco*
Philadelphia at L.A. Chargers, LAC -1, Philadelphia
N.Y. Giants at Tampa Bay, TB -3, N.Y. Giants
Oakland at Denver, Den. -3, Oakland
Indianapolis at Seattle, Sea. -13, Seattle
Washington at Kansas City, KC -6.5, Kansas City
*Will cover the spread but lose the game
Week 4 Previews
Highlight Game of the Week
Oakland at DenverThis game is intriguing to me for a couple of reasons. First, Both teams are coming off of losses where the offenses struggled and the defenses showed similar weaknesses. Second, this matchup may determine who gets one of the wildcard spots this year, even though I have both coming from this division. Finally, both teams are within 1 point of each other for points allowed and points against. Oakland has the big names on offense while Denver is known for its defense. I believe this should be a great afternoon game to watch.
For Oakland, the focus has to be on the offense. Carr and Co. struggled in Washington last week against a defense I consider to be less than formidable in multiple areas. With barely 150 yards of total offense and 3 turnovers, it was an ugly night. Carr had 19 completions but only averaged 3.8 yards per carry. This signals 2 things to me: Either they spent most of the game checking the ball down and throwing bubble screens, or Carr couldn't the ball out of his hand and held onto it for too long. Carr has been known to want to push the ball downfield with his string arm and WRs like Cooper and Crabtree, however, if the protection isn't there or you can't seem to find anyone open, the mindset has to change. Marshawn Lynch getting only 6 carries doesn't help matters either.
On defense, the Raiders have been stout for most of the year. I believe the game against Washington was an outlier for 2 reasons. First off, the Redskins have a potent offense that can score points on the best defenses. Secondly, the defense forced 2 turnovers which usually will lead to points, especially with the talent they have on offense. This leads me to believe Khalil Mack and the rest of the Silver and Black will be near the top of the league in total defense at the end of the year.
Special Teams have also been a bright spot for Oakland. Marquette King is one of the best punters in the league and does a great job placing punts where they need to be for the cover team to make plays. Giorgio Tavecchio has been a pleasant surprise so far. He is 100% through the 1st 3 weeks and even hit a 52 yard FG with room to spare.
Denver has the questions as they did last year on offense. Can a mediocre QB like Trevor Siemian lead the offense enough for the defense to win? In the first 2 weeks of the season I believe the answer to that question is yes, however, a trip to Buffalo this past week appeared to not only slow down the offense, but the defense as well. Siemian threw the ball for almost 260 yards but turned it over twice and failed to get in the end zone. C.J. Anderson, who was the lead back in the first 2 weeks, only carried the ball 8 times and was held to under 40 yards. The lack of 4 WR sets and empty sets by the offense allowed Buffalo to stack the box on run heavy downs and in run heavy formations, which is most likely the cause of this poor outcome.
Tyrod Taylor racked up over 200 yards passing while Stephen Hauschka was able to hit on 4 FGs against a defense that is considered to be one of the best in the NFL. Just those numbers alone indicate a lack of grit on the side of the defense which can primarily be attributed to the defensive backfield. Denver's back 7 allowed 3 plays of 28 yards or more and only had 3 pass deflections in the entire game. This was most likely because they were playing a lot of cover 2 to help stop Buffalo's run game.
Denver's special teams also leaves much to be desired. Brandon McManus has only hit 4 out 6 FGs none of which were over 40 yards. Riley Dixon also has a poor average for punts at 44.2% (41.7% in losses!) which has led to the defense starting with bad field position.
Player(s) to watch: Von Miller vs. Marshawn Lynch
Bold Prediction: Denver holds Oakland's explosive offense to under 20 points
Game Prediction: Oakland 17 Denver 13
POWER RANKINGS
Welcome to the first edition of Power Rankings! Below I have ranked all 32 NFL teams based on how well rounded the team is, previous performance this season, future potential, and odds of winning the Super Bowl. Let me know how you feel in the comments!
1. Atlanta Falcons 3-0
2. New England Patriots 2-1
3. Kansas City Chiefs 3-0
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 2-1
5. Oakland Raiders 2-1
6. Green Bay Packers 2-1
7. Denver Broncos 2-1
8. Dallas Cowboys 2-1
9. Minnesota Vikings 2-1
10. Seattle Seahawks 1-2
11. Tennessee Titans 2-1
12. Detroit Lions 2-1
13. Philadelphia Eagles 2-1
14. Buffalo Bills 2-1
15. Washington Redskins 2-1
16. Baltimore Ravens 2-1
17. Carolina Panthers 2-1
18. Houston Texans 1-2
19. Jacksonville Jaguars 2-1
20. LA Rams 2-1
21. Arizona Cardinals 1-2
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-1
23. New Orleans Saints 1-2
24. New York Giants 0-3
25. Cincinnati Bengals 0-3
26. LA Chargers 0-3
27. Chicago Bears 1-2
28. Miami Dolphins 1-1
29. Indianapolis Colts 1-2
30. New York Jets 1-2
31. San Francisco 49ers 0-3
32. Cleveland Browns 0-3
