Chasing a Dream May Turn into a Nightmare for Dallas

Jun. 24, 2016

Oh boy. This post isn't going to be fun to write. Since 2011, summer has been an exciting, yet heart breaking time of the year for the Dallas Mavericks and us, their fans. It started the summer after the championship when Cuban and Donnie decided to break up that Mavericks team that brought the franchise its very first ring. Dallas made a trade for one Lamar Odom, expecting a dominant front court duo of him and Dirk Nowitzki. Long story short, that didn't happen. After that summer, it's gotten worse and worse. First, they lose out on prime Deron Williams, the hometown kid that was supposed to team up with Dirk then recruit Dwight Howard to Dallas. Then, they miss out on prime Dwight Howard, the big man that was supposed to hold down the paint and be the face of the franchise when Dirk was gone. Then last summer, when Tyson Chandler opted not to wait to see what Dallas was going to do and signed with the Phoenix Suns. Everything was okay when DeAndre Jordan was supposed to be developed into the next Shaq (that was an empty promise to get him into a jersey), but then he backed out at the last second. Well, it's summer again. And the Mavericks are chasing a franchise player again. Wait, no. Make that two.

Two days ago, a report came out that Mike Conley Jr. was interested in signing with either the San Antonio Spurs or the Dallas Mavericks. The notion was that Mike Conley respects coach Rick Carlisle a lot, and that's what initially got him interested in Dallas. Then, Tim MacMahon of ESPN Dallas reported yesterday afternoon that the Mavericks are expected to be granted a meeting with Hassan Whiteside, the dominant young center, in the opening hours of free agency. June 30th at 11:01, the Mavericks recruiting team and Whiteside will likely be at a nice restaurant, wining and dining the big man. With MacMahon's report came another bit of news: Dallas has zoned in on these two guys as their primary targets this summer.

Mike Conley, one of Dallas' two big targets, edited into a Mavericks away jersey via @UncleVic13

I've written posts about both Mike Conley and Hassan Whiteside. I think they're exactly the kind of guys Dallas needs and wants. Mike Conley averaged 15 points per game and dropped 6 dimes consistently last season, he is a lockdown defender, and one of the best players never to make an all-star game in league history. Hassan Whiteside, meanwhile was first in blocks per game, third in field goal percentage, third in rebounding, and is only 27 years old. As long as Conley can stay healthy and Hassan Whiteside can stay out of trouble, the two of them can be near the top of the league in their respective positions. They're probably the two best free agents on the market behind Kevin Durant and Lebron James, and Dallas is going after both of them.

While going after the two, MacMahon reported that Dallas will be willing to let current unrestricted free agent Chandler Parsons walk while they chase "plan A". Dallas doesn't have the cap room to sign Whiteside and Conley to max contracts and still retain Chandler Parsons, who will also likely demand the max. Parsons isn't going to be short of suitors, even if he hasn't played in the playoffs the past two seasons his team has made it there due to injuries. There have been rumors swirling that Parsons' hometown Magic, whom he grew up a fan of, are prepared to offer Parsons a max contract this summer, and we can only assume that a lifetime fan wouldn't mind playing for that team and oh by the way getting paid about $23 million to do it. Why can't I be good enough at basketball to play for the Mavs for $23 million???? Parsons has dealt with season ending injuries and surgeries twice in the past two seasons, but has shown that he has a lot of potential when healthy. He's only 27 years old and averaged about 14 points, pulled down 5 rebounds, and dished out 3 assists per game. Nothing spectacular, but Parsons had a stretch when he was 100% in which he averaged 19.1 points per game, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.2 assists while shooting 51% from three and 55% overall. Parsons is good, well above average, but he isn't anywhere close to the level that Hassan Whiteside is on. Conley and him may be pretty close to each other, but I would still take Mike over CP. Dallas' being okay with letting CP walk while waiting on Whiteside and Conley is where this whole plan becomes problematic.

Last summer, as mentioned earlier, Dallas watched Tyson Chandler sign a lucrative deal with the Suns while they continued to have their meetings with DeAndre Jordan and LaMarcus Aldridge. Obviously, these two guys are better and younger than Chandler, so it made sense that they would continue to push for these two. But then, another problem started to arise; other free agents began to fall of the board while Dallas had all their money locked up waiting for one guy to sign. From Robin Lopez down to Kosta Koufos, centers began to sign left and right while the Mavericks had to wait for Deandre Jordan to decide. Then point guards like Jeremy Lin began to go off the board and it got uglier and uglier and it started to look like no matter who our center was, Devin Harris was going to be our starting point guard. But everything would be okay as long as Jordan signed. Then Jordan didn't sign and Dallas was in a really bad spot. No point guard and no center. Luckily, Deron Williams convinced his Nets to buy him out so he could help the Mavs out. Then Dallas traded half a bag of chips for Zaza Pachulia, and Dallas was in a better spot. Not good, but better than they would have been.

Dallas' unlikely savior, Zaza Pachulia, fights with the almost Maverick, Deandre Jordan, for a rebound.

Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

This is the problem with the double signing the Mavericks are banking on this summer. Deron Williams is a free agent. Chandler Parsons is a free agent. Dirk Nowitzki is a free agent. Zaza Pachulia is a free agent. Four of Dallas' starting five is going to be free to sign wherever they choose. Chandler Parsons is going to get a max contract offer, and he will likely get it pretty early into the free agency period. Dirk is already expecting calls from the Warriors, although no one expects him to actually entertain the idea of leaving the only American city he's ever played in. Deron Williams and Zaza Pachulia had very good seasons and will likely get pay raises from some team in need. If Conley takes a while to decide and Deron Williams signs, guys like Greivis Vasquez and Jeremy Lin will be the next options. If Whiteside does the same, Dwight Howard is likely plan B, but he won't be on the market long enough. Other options at center would include Bismack Biyombo and Festus Ezeli, but both of them are likely to get some max contracts. If Conley and Whiteside take too long to say no, the market will be too dry to make up for what they lost and could have had.

Another problem with this plan. When pitching to Conley and Whiteside, the Mavericks are pitching an idea. They're pitching something that has nothing concrete yet. Cuban and Donnie will basically be saying, "imagine a starting lineup of Mike Conley, Wes Matthews, Justin Anderson, Dirk Nowitzki, and Hassan Whiteside". Key word: imagine. If one of the two (Conley and Whiteside) says no, the other one likely says no. And if they both say no, there suddenly becomes a very real chance that Dirk Nowitzki walks. WHAT?! Yeah, I know it sounds insane, but he always said, as long as we're "going for it", he'll be a Dallas Maverick. If Whiteside and Conley say no and Chandler Parsons doesn't wait around, the lineup consists of JJ Barea, Wesley Matthews, Justin Anderson, and Salah Mejri. That is hardly what I call going for it.

If Dallas swings for the fences like this and misses, there is a very real chance that we go into rebuilding mode. However, if Dallas hits this two run home run, Dallas could really push themselves into the top five of the western conference while developing a young stud in Justin Anderson. Could they recover if Plan A fails? Yes, there are plenty of other good names on the market, it's just a matter of how long Plan A decides. Am I saying if Plan A fails, Dirk walks? Absolutely not. It's going to be a scary summer. This could either be the best summer in recent franchise history, or it could be, by far, the worst summer in recent franchise history. And that's saying a lot with the Mavericks' past. Cross your fingers Mavs fans and hold onto your hats, it's going to be a wild ride.