Fantasy Big Board: Quarterbacks
It's all fun and games in fantasy, until someone gets hurt, or in our case, drafts the guy who gets hurt. Most of you don't know who I am, or what my knowledge level is on fantasy, and I get that. To briefly describe my history, I have mainly used cbssports.com leagues, with 12 teams, no flex position, and 5 on the bench and in a draft format where the 12th pick gets the 13th and the 1st pick gets the 24th and 25th and so on. I have played for about 10 years or so with two or more teams, and have either won or gotten second in each of the last five years (as I don't remember before that). I also won about $275 on FanDuel last season, which isn't a lot, but I only spent about $50. I'm above average for sure, and it all has to do with not only the draft, but the waiver wire as well and not buying into the wrong people.
So today, I have my quarterback rankings, and I will be going about this in tiers. I don't care about suspensions, because my draft strategy is you should draft a full team and be comfortable with your third RB or fourth WR playing, otherwise why would you draft him? Because somebody else believes in him? That's silly. It doesn't mean that all players you draft are equal, but you should be comfortable with every player on your team at least to start the season, like every NFL team is. The biggest what-ifs among all quarterbacks is is Andrew Luck going to be back to what he was two years ago? That is the difference between a middle of the road QB and a high end QB. I think he will be better, but his skill position talent is not as good as it was last year or throughout his career. Expect a good season though. The other main concern is Tom Brady's four game suspension, but if you can get him and a guy like Blake Bortles, you should be fine for the first few weeks and better off down the road.
So, here is my top tier of quarterbacks, starting from my highest ranked player in the tier: Cam Newton (Carolina), Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay), Carson Palmer (Arizona), Andrew Luck (Indianapolis), Tom Brady (New England)
Not a big group, and two of these guys have concerns that I just mentioned, but the name power is what keeps them up here. Cam Newton was MVP last season, and his ability to run the football plus put up above average stats puts him slightly above Aaron Rodgers for the number one spot. Speaking of Rodgers, since when was approximately 4,000 yards, 31 TD and 8 INT a bad season? If that's bad, I'd consider taking him early because he will be better this year. Carson Palmer has the best array of receiver talent in football, and you should expect more of the same from him as last season.
Here is tier two: Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh), Drew Brees (New Orleans), Blake Bortles (Jacksonville), Derek Carr (Oakland), Russell Wilson (Seattle), Eli Manning (New York Giants), Tony Romo (Dallas), Philip Rivers (San Diego), Matt Ryan (Atlanta)
This is the group of guys that I would be comfortable starting on a weekly basis, and you should make sure you have at least one of these guys to start every week (unless you have a tier 1 guy). We all pretty much know what to expect from everyone here, except Tony Romo, but having Dez Bryant on the roster and a decent crop of skill players gives him the benefit of the doubt for now. Another name to be cautious of is Drew Brees, as he is not what he once was and does not have the same level of skill position talent as in the past. Ben Roethlisberger would be in tier 1 if Martavis Bryant was not suspended for the year, and LeVeon Bell was not suspended for four games. I also like Philip Rivers, and having a full season of Keenan Allen plus newcomer Travis Benjamin at receiver should help make this offense better.
Here is tier three: Kirk Cousins (Washington), Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay), Matthew Stafford (Detroit), Andy Dalton (Cincinnati), Joe Flacco (Baltimore), Alex Smith (Kansas City), Ryan Tannehill (Miami), Tyrod Taylor (Buffalo), Brock Osweiler (Houston), Marcus Mariota (Tennessee)
There are some intriguing names in this list, and every one of them is worth a flier as a backup if you can't get two of the guys above them. Tyrod Taylor might be ranked a little low, but he also might be right where he belongs. Buffalo doesn't have a good group of pass catchers outside of Sammy Watkins, and you don't usually see QB's with one target have the most successful numbers. Joe Flacco could jump up to tier 2 in a second if he and his team prove that they are healthy, so he could be a steal. Another name that may be too low is Andy Dalton, but he never has been great (fantasy) statistically and lost Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu in the offseason.
Every other QB I have not mentioned, including Jay Cutler, Teddy Bridgewater, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff are not ranked among my top 24 quarterbacks, because I would not be comfortable drafting them. We all know how Cutler can be, Bridgewater has yet to put up numbers, and Wentz/Goff are rookies on mediocre teams.
