College Football Playoff At DEFCON 5? Oh yeah!
This college football week was going to be just another uneventful week.
And it started off that way. Alabama crushed Mississippi State 51-3, and looking right at Auburn in 2 weeks for the Iron Bowl to decide the SEC West Champion. That was pretty much the early games. Oklahoma curb-stomped Baylor into submission and kept their chances of a Big 12 title (but no playoff) running while West Virginia stole a win in Austin, beating Texas. And with one uneventful week passing by to the next uneventful week where College GameDay was debating to actually head to Jacksonville State to see the FCS power Gamecocks play instead of the anticipated matchup of Oklahoma vs. West Virginia as the game of the week in the FBS.....where it would only mean a conference and nothing more...................and then 3:30 arrived.
The games of Pitt and Clemson, Auburn and Georgia, Ohio State and Maryland, and Illinois and Wisconsin started. Many figured Ohio State would roll agianst Maryland...........and did. Many figured Wisconsin would dispose of Illinois.........and did. People looked at the Auburn/Georgia game going "wait a minute, this game could be intriguing..........rivalry game......Auburn's offense is dinged up......might need to watch this." (For the record, I did pick Georgia to win this game by the way).
Auburn fell as the Iron Bowl is not as meaningful in terms of the playoff picture now.
Auburn ran the ball like they have in their winning streak after the Texas A&M loss especially in the first half. But their running back gets injured and resorted to passing the ball.............which was an epic failure on the Tigers. First drive in the second half results in a Pick 6 and the Tigers could not move the ball the rest of the half as they were bullied by the Bulldogs defense. So this game while it was an upset, gave a clearer picture for the playoff, at least for the SEC (more on that later).
Clemson still might be in the driver's seat but the upset loss kick-started the major domino effect.
Then................Clemson and Pittsburgh. After the beatdown the Tigers gave Syracuse last week, it seemed like Clemson would wake up and storm through the rest of the season with Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, and South Carolina. But Pitt jumped early on them in Death Valley.......almost having a 21-7 lead on a 100 yard fumble return (which was overturned because Gallman broke the plane). Tooth & nail the rest of the way and Clemson could have ended it with 3 minutes left inside the Pittsburgh 10 and had a costly interception which had Clemson scored, sealed that game. Instead, it almost went for a pick six (Pitt later scored a TD but failed the 2-point conversion) and then Clemson got stopped on 3rd & 4th down and shorts. Pitt kicked a FG to win the game, ending Clemson's regular season undefeated streak that had gone on since 2014. While a big upset, Clemson could have possibly afforded a blemish (again, more on THAT later). So the big stories were Clemson & Auburn losing. Not fun being a Tigers fan right now, whether you are one of those two teams, LSU, or Missouri.....
Then we come to our evening/night games of Wake Forest at Louisville, USC at Washington, Ole Miss at Texas A&M, and Michigan at Iowa. Louisville figured to wallop Wake. Washington would have to deal with a red hot USC squad, but they were balanced enough to take down the Trojans in Seattle. While the Aggies were out of the SEC Championship race, things could have been played out for a New Year's Six game. And Michigan was playing an Iowa team that got throttled by Penn State, the same Penn State that Michigan throttled earlier in the season. What could possibly go wrong?
Turns out, almost everything.
Louisville ran away with it in the 4th and ran up the score on Wake Forest. Not a thing I like seeing, but they have to do what they have to do.
Wake had a 12-3 lead on Louisville at halftime and the alarms were ringing once more of an upset of the other ACC power and even by the end of the 3rd, it wasn't clear if Louisville would run away. But Petrino & Co. got it going and ran up the score late. 44-12 Louisville. Bullet dodged for the Cardinals, but the debate will now be should they be ahead of Clemson despite the head-to-head match-up where the Tigers won?
USC could have ended Washington's playoff dream.
So Louisville is safe, but then you see Jake Browning and Washington have massive issues against the USC defense all night and the Trojans got some timely offensive plays to score on the Huskies before the half. Washington was never really IN the game in the second half. Huskies uneventfully lose and now have put the PAC-12 on notice for possibly missing a playoff for the second year in a row.
While the Aggies were probably KO'ed from playoff, the New Year's Six game for Texas A&M is all but dead.
Then you see all these teams falling and now Texas A&M looking like "hey, maybe we sneak in again!" Up 28-6 to a lowly Ole Miss team. And the Aggies blow it........at home and lose 29-28. And for the Aggies, we are back to the "well, our season ended when we lost to Alabama" and "Kevin Sumlin needs to go." Good times!
Iowa kicked the hornet's nest with their win over #3 Michigan.
Then comes Michigan......no way. Outside of the Michigan State game, they decimated all in their path. Iowa would present a challenge, but nothing Michigan hadn't seen. But one problem: the offense sputtered and special teams really screwed up. Michigan found themselves in a rare situation: playing meaningful 4th quarter minutes. The Wolverines alongside a few questionable moves in the 4th (passing on 3rd with Iowa having one more timeout to burn?) fell with a FG as time expired. Michigan falls...............and in the ironic process..............the Buckeyes might have fallen with them.
And now, we have a massive mess with the playoff. Of course the jokes are now the playoff should consist of 1. Alabama 2. Alabama's 2nd string 3. Alabama's 3rd string and 4. Alabama's scout team since all have fallen (save Western Michigan)
The one thing that has been brought up time after time and something I have said is that the committee has favored the conference champions in the first two years of the playoff. Right now, you are looking at TWO possible 1-loss teams who won't even make the conference championship (Louisville, Ohio State) and a great chance of a 2-loss Big Ten Champion (either Wisconsin or Penn State) on top of it. So, what does the committee do?
College football martial law?
The losses by Clemson, Michigan, and Washington, while for those three might not be anything if they win out, have opened the doors for MORE teams to make an argument............2-loss teams, non-conference champions, and of course, my favorite conference in the whole wide world, the Big 12 to possibly sneak in. So let's now see how many teams actually have a legit shot as at one point, some of these teams might have been dead on arrival entering today.
ACC: PLAYOFF CONTENDERS: CLEMSON, LOUISVILLE: The debate has already started if Louisville should jump ahead of Clemson. My guess is no because of the head-to-head meeting and the fact Clemson will play in the ACC Championship game. So for anybody that is a Louisville fan petitioning for the format to change...........good luck. So it is really simple for Clemson: beat Wake Forest next week (game is in Winston-Salem mind you) and go to ACC championship and shut out the Cardinals. Louisville NEEDS Wake to win obviously, but also cannot fall flat on their face to Houston (who has slipped). So how I look at it is this: with Clemson having Wake and South Carolina, their path is the easiest out of anybody not named Alabama to get in the playoff. But it was supposed to be easy today as well. Whoops. Had Virginia Tech handled their business and not laid an egg to Georgia Tech, they could have been in consideration....possibly.
BIG TEN: PLAYOFF CONTENDERS: WISCONSIN, PENN STATE, MICHIGAN, OHIO STATE: And I put this in ORDER of likelihoods. So right now while Ohio State might end up being ranked #2 after this week, their chances if you go by the format of conference champions is slim & none, thanks to of all teams Michigan. Had Michigan won against Iowa the Wolverines would have been on a collision course with Ohio State and you would have possibly ended up with a 3-team tie for the division where the ranking would have decided the winner..........meaning Ohio State. However, if Ohio State beats Michigan and ties Penn State, Penn State is your champ. And the Lions get a crummy Rutgers squad and a Spartans squad that isn't anything like the 2013-15 teams. So the question will be, do you put an 11-1 Ohio State team NOT in the conference championship over a 11-2 Penn State team (if they beat Wisconsin) or an 11-2 Wisconsin team (that lost to Ohio State?) So the team that might be in the best of situations is Penn State. Ohio State might be screwed badly here.
BIG 12: PLAYOFF CONTENDERS: WEST VIRGINIA, OKLAHOMA STATE, OKLAHOMA: Yes, I am including the Cowboys albeit a distant chance. Well, the other teams are semi-distant too, but West Virginia, if they can beat Oklahoma next week could find themselves on the outside looking in very fast. And if West Virginia wins out, and Penn State wins the conference, then a huge debate begins of whether the Mountaineers jump ahead of the Lions or the PAC-12 champ. Oklahoma can win out, but will need a team with 3 losses to win a conference because they do not have an impressive resume to this point and got smoked by Houston and Ohio State (at home by 21 points). Oklahoma State would be VERY intriguing for three key reasons if they win out: 1. They beat West Virginia. 2. They would have beaten Oklahoma. 3. They would have beaten Pittsburgh, who took down Clemson AND Penn State, two possible conference champs. They would make a major argument.
PAC-12: PLAYOFF CONTENDERS: WASHINGTON, UTAH: I am not including Washington State as they are this year's version of what North Carolina was last year. The losses to Boise State and Eastern Washington pretty much ruined them from the start. So even a 2 loss Big 12 champ probably overrides the Cougars. But I still feel confident Washington if they can win out can get a playoff spot, but the Apple Cup will be a big issue. Colorado I originally had, but they lose any tiebreak to a 3-loss USC team. Utah however does have the tiebreak on USC, but needs to beat Washington to have any chance of a playoff, which might also be slim. But the best bet is Washington and they have a good chance of winning out, but not as great as it was before tonight.
SEC: PLAYOFF CONTENDER: ALABAMA: Well, the rest of the nation is ribbing the SEC for only having one team at this point but it is a near certainty it is Alabama. But Florida is unranked and Tennessee has 3 losses. They can actually take a hit in the face to Auburn in 2 weeks and still end up remaining #1. I am almost convinced if Alabama wins the final two regular season games but has a hiccup in the SEC Championship to either Florida or Tennessee, they still might sneak in given the current situation of everybody else. But for the rest of the SEC, they will climb on the Tide's back and chant their three letters in January......
OTHER THINGS TO CONSIDER
When all is said & done, Pitt possibly could end up playing 3 conference champions in 2016 (Penn State, Clemson, Oklahoma State) and beating two of them.
THE PITTSBURGH FACTOR: Let's say for argument's sake this happens: Alabama does as expected. Clemson, Washington, Penn State, and Oklahoma State all win out and become conference champions. At the same time, Pitt finishes strong and goes 8-4. Not impressive obviously, but they played Clemson, Penn State, and Oklahoma State. And they beat Clemson AND Penn State. But they lost to Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Now the question begs, would you put the Cowboys OVER the Nittany Lions because of the Pittsburgh games? Or would you compare the Ohio State/Oklahoma game to how Bedlam gets played out (in Norman as well). Do you see if the Cowboys beat the Sooners in an impressive fashion similar to Ohio State and then point out how Penn State beat Ohio State? Or if it really becomes a cluster and Clemson loses to South Carolina (which is quite possible at this point, not probable but possible).........what do you do then? Those three games with Pitt might come into play.
THE HOUSTON FACTOR: This gets played out if Houston loses to Louisville and Oklahoma wins out. Similar to the Pittsburgh issue, do you look at how the Cougars did against the Sooners where they beat them with ease in Week 1 and then see the same Houston squad lose to Louisville in Houston? Could the committee really look into that scenario if that happens and Clemson still ends up losing to South Carolina?
ULTIMATE QUESTION: Let's say the ultimate cluster continues and these things ACTUALLY happen:
1. Clemson loses to South Carolina but wins the ACC Championship
2. Louisville wins out
3. Oklahoma State wins out
4. Ohio State wins out final 2 regular season games
5. Penn State wins final 2 regular season games
6. Wisconsin wins out (Big 10 title)
7. For argument's sake only Utah wins out (PAC-12 title too).
8. Alabama wins out.
Here is what everything looks like if everything goes batty:
SEC Champ: Alabama (13-0), ACC Champ: Clemson (11-2), B10 Champ: Wisconsin (11-2) B12 Champ: Oklahoma State (10-2), PAC-12 Champ: Utah (11-2)
Then you have two 11-1 teams of Ohio State (lost to Penn State but beat Wisconsin) and Louisville.
Or let's switch it around where it is Oklahoma winning out.........do you give the nod to the Sooners ahead of the Buckeyes though Ohio State beat Oklahoma silly in Norman? Or would that 13th game jump Utah ahead of Oklahoma and screw out the Sooners AND the Buckeyes?
What will the committee do? From what we have seen, they look at conference championships (Ohio State was on the outside looking in, even more further than 11-2 Stanford last year) and the other part is the 13th game that the 4 power conferences play. You saw the Spartans jump over the Sooners in the selection from that last year too. So what happens? Do they value the conference championship and its championship game more over the head-to-head?
This is all insanity to me..............I can't imagine what the committee is thinking after tonight. Thinking or drinking...........take your pick.
I bet right now they just hope the 4 teams that were in the top 4 to start the day win out the rest of the way and life would be easier on them.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
