Week 10
OVERVIEW
November 6, 2015
Joe Broback
Mostly, I’m just confused. Very little clarity was brought to the college football world by the selection committee. We didn’t expect the answers to be black or white, but we didn’t expect this much grey. The important point that we need to remember: this is just the first and not the final rankings. We can debate about every team, but the most important month of college football has yet to be played. Our clarity will show up (hopefully) because teams that are contenders will show us they belong, while the pretenders will start to fade. Everyone has their opinion of who should be where, and I’ll provide my thoughts on these rankings.
Ohio State
I’m going to beat this into the ground if I have to until everyone realizes the Buckeyes shouldn’t be close to the top four right now. The fact that Ohio State is in the top four proves that the committee is biased towards “branding.” While they hate that term, they aren’t doing much to prove us otherwise. Consider this, Ohio State’s best performance arguably could be any of these: a 38-10 win over Penn State, a 49-7 blowout of Rutgers, or a 42-24 win against Virginia Tech to start the year. Numbers aside, none of those wins gave you the feeling that the Buckeyes should be in the playoff. Anyone that watched the games knows the Buckeyes haven’t proved anything yet. Put them up against Baylor, a team many (including myself) have in the playoff over Ohio State. Baylor’s best win was a 62-38 win over West Virginia. While the defense has done just enough to win, that win alone is more impressive than anything Ohio State has done. That’s just one team, and there are many other teams that I could easily put above OSU (Alabama, Notre Dame, TCU, Iowa, Florida, and Memphis).
Branding
A message to the committee: you want people to stop using the term “branding?” Stop putting teams in the playoff that haven’t provided any proof they belong. The only reason the Buckeyes are in the playoff is because they won it last year and have many returning starters. Alabama’s one loss is to the 18th ranked team and Notre Dame’s is to the #1 team, yet the Irish are right below the Tide. Florida’s loss was by seven points to #2 LSU, and the Gators beat #18 Ole Miss. Forgive my confusion, but did the Tide not lose to Ole Miss? At least here you can’t really argue that Alabama’s schedule is that much more difficult than Florida’s because they both play in the SEC (which the committee just proved is important). Iowa has two wins against top 25 teams, Ohio State has none. The rankings: Ohio State is third and the Hawkeyes are 9th. So Iowa has more quality wins than Ohio State, more wins against top 25 teams, a tougher schedule to date, and the reason they’re lower? Committee chair Jeff Long said that the committee didn’t think their offense was strong but their defense has been consistent. Compare that to Ohio State, offense has been shaky and defense has been consistent. The two are in the same position right now, Iowa has the better resume, but the Buckeyes are in the playoff. Excuse me for being confused when this screams “branding.”
Memphis
The Tigers obviously need to win out to even be considered, but what they have done so far should have them ranked higher. With the committee putting Alabama at number four, Memphis should be a top ten team. Alabama’s loss was to Ole Miss, a team Memphis beat. The team that beat the team who’s the fourth best team in the nation is only ranked 13th. Memphis’ remaining schedule includes Navy, #25 Houston, #22 Temple, and SMU. It’s not an SEC West (who the committee seems captivated by) schedule, but the Tigers will apply immense pressure on the committee should they remain undefeated.
Clemson
For all of the talk of the ACC being down this year, the committee sure seems to think otherwise. Dabo Swinney’s team is on top to start the rankings, and it seems that only a loss could knock them from the top spot. Are the Tigers worth that top ranking? Absolutely. “Clemsoning” should be a term never used again, because the Tigers are serious contenders and have a big chip on their shoulder. While I think the Tigers are more than deserving of this top spot, I think this was the committee’s attempt to make up for the rest of their selections.
Again, the key to remember is these are not the final rankings, so we can’t put too much stock into these numbers. The committee isn’t going to be perfect, but there seem to be too many flaws in these rankings. Hopefully, the teams playing will clear things up so there won’t be as much debate. Then again, it’s college football and we don’t know what’s going to happen this month. The whole eight team playoff argument made by many (including me) is really a solid argument if you look at the teams this year. Maybe, when the confusion ensues, the committee will take a strong look at that. Until then, let the entertainment and chaos continue.
Group of Five Playoff
*all rankings relative to this section
Why was there a Tuesday night game? Who even plays Tuesday nights? The NCAA needs to get rid of these Monday through Wednesday and even Thursday games. These kids are still student-athletes, and having a Tuesday night game seems like Roger Goodell came in and made that decision. There is no legitimate reason why a football team should play football any day before Thursday (and that even doesn’t make a lot of sense).
Four In:
#1 Memphis Tigers (8-0)----November is the greatest month in college football next to September when the season begins. The Tigers are about to find out why, and they better come prepared. The next three weeks will have a tremendous impact on the Tigers season and playoff hopes (not just this made up playoff, but the real one too). All Memphis has to do is win out and hope some other teams lose. Navy, Houston, and Temple are the next three Tiger opponents and each will test them in their own unique ways.
#2 Houston Cougars (8-0)----Houston took care of business against Vanderbilt, and now shift their attention to Cincinnati. The Bearcats visit and are playing better football as of late. Houston better not peak ahead to its game with Memphis or Gunner Kiel will make them pay. Houston was the last team in the selection committee’s rankings, but are determined to move up the board.
#3 Temple Owls (7-1)----The Owls didn’t lose a spot because of their loss. Losing to Notre Dame is not terrible, and losing by 4 is something to hang your hat on. Still, the Owls are not satisfied, and boy do I feel bad for SMU. The Mustangs will find out quickly that Temple will be upset after having a chance to upset the Irish. SMU is at home, but the attendance may be zero by the time the second half begins.
#4 BYU Cougars (6-2)----Welcome back, Cougars. After a five week absence from this top four, BYU has won the games necessary to jump back in after Toledo lost (spoiler alert). The Cougars had an actual bye this week, and shift their attention to San Jose State. The Spartans are a .500 team who rely on the legs of runningback Tyler Ervin (1159 yards and 12 touchdowns). SJSU’s wins this season are less than impressive (New Hampshire, Fresno State, UNLV, and New Mexico), so BYU shouldn’t have to worry too much.
Four Out:
#5 Marshall Thundering Herd (8-1)----The Thundering Herd keep marching towards their final game against Western Kentucky to put them in the conference championship game for the third consecutive year. The Hilltoppers ended Marshall’s perfect season last year, and the Herd are out for revenge (which will have to wait a few weeks).
#6 Toledo Rockets (7-1)----Why Rockets why? Toledo had so much going for them until Tuesday. In their first test since September, Toledo struggled to stop Northern Illinois and move the ball through the air. QB Phillip Ely threw two costly interceptions, and the Rockets were handed their first loss of the season on a Tuesday night (see my feelings about that above). All is not lost, though, as the Rockets can still make a New Year’s Six Bowl.
#7 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-2)----The Brandon Doughty show took a break this week thanks to four touchdowns by Anthony Wales. The point production did not suffer as they put 55 points on the board against Old Dominion. Like Marshall, WKU’s schedule is soft until they meet the Herd to end the season, and determine who will go to the championship game. These two should be put in separate divisions as they are clearly the best two teams in the conference.
#8 Bowling Green Falcons (7-2)----The Falcons could easily be at #5, but they may have the worst jersey color combinations in the whole country. Anything with brown is just ruined, but Bowling Green doesn’t seem to care. The played Ohio on Wednesday (again a midweek game?) and Matt Johnson shined again. Western Kentucky runs the Brandon Doughty show and Bowling Green runs the Matt Johnson show, and man are they fun to watch. The Falcons have two tougher tests these next two weeks against Western Michigan and Toledo. With the mid-week game, they will have a longer time to recover and prepare.
Other notables:
Georgia Southern (6-2), Navy Midshipmen (6-1), Appalachian State Mountaineers (7-1), Boise State Broncos (7-2)
CFP PLAYOFF TEAMS
November in college football can be considered one of the best months in sports. The amount of excitement each week skyrockets because of rivalry games and top 10 matchups. The top eight will either get much easier to pick or extremely difficult to choose one team over another. The committee came out with their rankings, but that does not change what goes into this set of rankings one bit.
Teams in the playoff:
#1 Baylor Bears (8-0)----Baylor and Clemson are the two most impressive teams by far this year. Art Briles has his Bears’ team putting up points quickly and daring other teams to try and keep up. The defense has been getting better, but will be tested in November. All signs are pointing towards a “championship” game against TCU to end the season. With Seth Russell gone for the year, Baylor now looks to freshman Jarrett Stidham, who the coaches speak highly of. If Stidham can keep the offense rolling with all of the weapons, Baylor will keep winning. This week will give the nation a preview of what’s to come.
#2 Clemson Tigers (8-0)----Deshaun Watson showed that his arm can carry his team just as much as his legs. Clemson struggled to put away NC State, but Watson threw his way past the Wolfpack defense. Clemson has been a (sort of) surprise team this year with their sophomore sensation, but the defense has been as good as advertised. The biggest game remaining on the Tigers schedule awaits this week at Florida State, and you can bet the Seminoles want to ruin Clemson’s playoff hopes and number one ranking.
#3 LSU Tigers (7-0)----LSU can show us two things this weekend: they will eliminate (or be close to) Alabama from playoff contention, or they will be bumped from the top four themselves. It’s hard to imagine either team will fall far with a loss, but the Tigers may jump to #1 with a win over the Tide. This game has the most hype of any game this year, and it will be a grind-it-out type of game. LSU knows it can rely on Leonard Fournette, and the defense has improved every week. Week 10 will shake these rankings and the Tigers hope to be on the rise after their game.
#4 TCU Horned Frogs (7-0)----TCU’s biggest weakness has been its defense, and no one has ever debated that. 15 Frog’s players made their first start this year…..on defense alone. The injury bug has not been kind to TCU, but they remain undefeated. Gary Patterson finally figured out how to stop an offense, and the Frog’s defense had a breakthrough week. West Virginia only managed 10 points last week, and was held to its lowest offensive output for the season. If the defense can continue this production, TCU will be in good shape for a playoff run.
Teams on the outside looking in (in no particular order):
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)----The win over Temple wasn’t too impressive, but Temple is an underrated team. Notre Dame’s only loss is to Clemson by two points. A tough and gritty Pitt team awaits this week, and Boston College and Stanford await later in the schedule. DeShone Kizer has proven he’s a capable starter and is showing he’s as dynamic as injured QB Malik Zaire. With all the weapons surrounding him, the Irish shouldn’t have to rely on him too often.
Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)----I’m still not sold on the Tide. They still have Nick Saban, which is a huge plus, but the consistency and intimidation factor aren’t there. When Alabama was at the top in the past few years, the Tide were a force to be reckoned with. This year, the inconsistent play and the head scratching loss to Ole Miss don’t give a clear picture of what kind of team this is. Success for the Tide appears to be hinged to the success of the offense, as usual, but the question remains: can they put up enough points to win?
Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)----Cardale Jones may be wondering how much luck he has left in the tank. Jones will start this week against Minnesota due to a suspension to JT Barrett. Ohio State turns to Jones a third time in the last two years and hopes that this tenure goes better than the previous one this season. Jones was benched in favor of Barrett, but now he must perform because there isn’t anyone to back him up. In an odd twist of fate, Braxton Miller could be put behind center again if Jones struggles.
Michigan State Spartans (8-0)----It’s hard to make much noise after you win a game by returning a botched punt for the winning touchdown. Yet here the Spartans remain undefeated. MSU has to wait two weeks to get their shot at Ohio State (on the road), but can’t overlook Nebraska or Maryland. A week off should give Mark Dantonio enough time to fix the issues with both sides of the ball and prepare the Spartans for the last month and a run to the playoff.
GAMES OF THE WEEK/PICKEM
*all rankings are based on AP Poll
Overall Record: 22-14 Last week: 4-0
#1 Clemson at #16 Florida State
Sean Maguire may start more games against Clemson than Jameis Winston? Say it ain’t so. Maguire may get a chance to start even with Everett Golson returning as he threw for 348 yards and three touchdowns against Syracuse. Jimbo Fisher has a tough decision to make, but either quarterback should be fine with Dalvin Cook returning. Cook will be pinned up against the fifth best defense, and the quarterbacks will need to take some of the pressure off. Deshaun Watson is a familiar foe to the Seminoles, but many of their defenders have not played against him yet. Clemson is out for revenge for their previous two losses against the ‘Noles and they will get it.
My pick: Clemson 35 Florida State 21
#8 TCU at #14 Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State took TCU’s approach to Texas Tech last week: just score more points than the Red Raiders and try to hold their offense to under 55. Not the approach you always want to take, but when the Cowboys can put up 70 points like they did last week, they have a chance. TCU’s defense has given Fort Worth some hope that every game won’t be a shootout, but their schedule gets more difficult. Oklahoma State has the eighth best scoring offense (44.0 ppg) and will make life hard on the Frog’s defense. The big X-factor in this game is Trevone Boykin, and the Cowboys haven’t seen anything close to Boykin’s caliber of QB. Throw in the rest of the offense, and the Cowboys are in for a long night. October was an emotional roller coaster for Oklahoma State, and unfortunately, those emotions have worn the team out.
My pick: TCU 56 Oklahoma State 38
Navy at #13 Memphis
There hasn’t been this much hype in Memphis unless you’re talking about their basketball team when Derrick Rose was on campus. Memphis and the nation know that the Tigers have a slim chance of making the playoff, and you can bet every team they play wants to ruin those chances. Navy QB Keenan Reynolds almost certainly will break the NCAA record for most career rushing touchdowns this week, and the triple option will test Memphis. Unfortunately for Navy, they haven’t played against a QB like Paxton Lynch. Lynch will sling the ball around the field easily against the Midshipmen, and Reynolds special day will be spoiled.
My pick: Memphis 34 Navy 20
#2 LSU at #4 Alabama
If you can’t get hyped for this game, nothing I put here will do anything to help. This game doesn’t even need an introduction or explanation. It’s Alabama-LSU. In case you’re unaware of what’s going on, this game is a big deal. A game that features multiple future NFL draft picks and All Americans needs no detail, but I’ll provide some. Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette are two of the best backs in the country and both defenses are solid. The X-factors that will determine the game are LSU’s QB Brandon Harris and Alabama’s QB Jake Coker. Both have improved significantly this season and whoever has the ability to take pressure off their star back will determine who wins the game. Until proven otherwise, one team has yet to impress me. Maybe they will this game.
My pick: LSU 21 Alabama 17
