Week 4
OVERVIEW
September 25, 2015
RUNNNNNN! Wait….Pass?????
Week 3 showed that preparation alone does not guarantee a victory over your opponent. Being innovative and adjusting on the fly helps team gain an advantage. Sometimes, your advantage can be seen as an unfair advantage.
There is one rule that has been controversial in college football: the pass-run option. In this play, the quarterback has multiple options. First, he reads the defensive end: if the end stays or goes up field, the QB hands off to his running back, and if the end crashes towards the back, the QB will pull the ball. His last option is to read the outside defender (a linebacker or defensive back). If the defender stays back, the QB will tuck and run, and if that defender commits to the QB, the ball will be thrown to the receiver. Normally the receiver is running some sort of screen play behind the line, but sometimes they are downfield. During any pass play, the offensive linemen are not allowed more than three yards downfield. How that is being regulated is the controversy and there were a few cases this week.
The play that had the most impact on a game came during the Ole Miss-Alabama showdown. Chad Kelly completed a pass off the run-pass option they ran for a touchdown. The play was reviewed because it was believed that Kelly had crossed the line of scrimmage, which would result in the touchdown being wiped off the board. The call stood on the field, but another broken rule was evident during the review. While officials were focusing on Kelly’s body position, you could see Ole Miss linemen 4-5 yards down the field, a clear violation against the rules. This rule is so hard to enforce because the play happens so quickly and officials have a hard time judging when a lineman is too far downfield.
Now, I’m all for high scoring barn burners just as much as the next person, but this rule needs to be changed. This play is deceiving to the defenders reading the play. For those linebackers and defensive backs reading the offensive lineman, it is hard enough to defend an offense with all of these rules that go against them. Throw in a play where the linemen come downfield 4-5 yards (a run read) only to have the ball be thrown down the field, and now you have a clear unfair advantage to the offense. I hope college football takes a serious look at this rule, because this play will be taken advantage of by offenses throughout this season and in the future if it’s not changed.
Group of Five (GO5) Playoff
*all rankings relative to this section
This may have been the one week where the Power 5 playoff changes more than the Group of 5 playoff. While this foreshadowing isn’t too surprising, these teams could have made a lot more noise to help shake up college football even more. Only one team really struggled, but remained in our top four. This week
Four In:
#1 BYU Cougars (2-1)---- The Cougars may have lost to UCLA, but they can still make a competitive run towards a New Year’s Bowl game. Multiple pieces need to fall in place for BYU to be considered for the College Football Playoff (CFP), and as we saw with the Cougars first two weeks, stranger things have happened. Even at one loss, they hold the top spot in the Group of 5 playoff with the quality opponents they have played.
#2 Toledo Rockets (2-0)----If not for two Hail Mary’s and a close loss by the #1 Cougars, the Rockets would easily have the top spot. Toledo has defeated two Power 5 teams in consecutive weeks to start their season. A sleeper game awaits against Arkansas State this Saturday, but Toledo is riding high. The Rockets should make it to November undefeated, and then the tough part of the schedule begins. A home game against #5 Northern Illinois, as well as a trip to Bowling Green November 17th will challenge this Rockets team. But for now, Toledo is enjoying their two big wins and focused on the Red Wolves.
#3 Temple Owls (3-0)---- The Owls were one drive away from becoming irrelevant for the season. UMass had Temple on its heels and scrambling for answers. Temple needed an Austin Jones field goal with seven seconds left to beat the Minutemen. Any win is good in college football, but this win is not nearly as good as it could have been. Temple needs a strong showing against an upstart Charlotte team, but could find themselves dropping in these rankings even with another win.
#4 Memphis Tigers (3-0)----The Tigers can forget everything they have done the past three weeks. None of that matters because they have a huge game against #7 Cincinnati. The Bearcats (2-1) have already lost to #3 Temple, and that loss looks worse with Temple struggling to beat UMass. The Tigers, led by quarterback Paxton Lynch, with a win, can focus on their game vs Ole Miss on October 17th. Lynch has been making a strong case for most underrated quarterback in the nation. A win this week could help Memphis jump up in the rankings as well.
Four Out:
#5 Northern Illinois (2-1)----Ohio State did everything they could to help NIU get the #1 ranking this week in the GO5 playoff. They handled the clock poorly multiple times late, but the Huskies offense couldn’t use that momentum. Had they pulled off the miracle in Columbus, we would be talking about this team to be considered in contention for the CFP, not this playoff. The Huskies should move up in the rankings, but need to prove themselves this week at Boston College, who is coming off an impressive defensive performance against Florida State.
#6 Boise State (2-1)----The Broncos had their chance to solidify their spot in this playoff, but their only hope to rise is for others to fall. Normally, they control their own destiny, but this might be as high as Boise will get this season.
#7 Cincinnati (2-1)----A lost to Temple hurt their chances at a dark horse run to the CFP. The Bearcats need to figure things out quickly, because a loss to Memphis this week eliminates them from the CFP and will make it nearly impossible for them to get back into these rankings as well.
#8 Houston (2-0)----The win against Louisville was impressive at the time, but looks less and less impressive watching the Cardinals play. The real tests will come in the last week of October and all of November, so the best thing the Cougars can do is stay undefeated until then.
Other notables:
Ohio (3-0), Georgia Southern (2-1), Navy (2-0), Bowling Green (1-2)
CFP PLAYOFF TEAMS
Ohio State showed why even when you’re on top, having two quarterbacks is a problem. They also proved how difficult it can be to stay on top. Alabama experienced the same issues, but against a far better opponent. Needless to say, college football looks a little different, and so does the playoff. Picking eight teams to consider for the playoff is difficult at this point, but picking a top four of those eight was no challenge.
Teams in the playoff:
#1 Ole Miss----The Rebels have the biggest win of any team this year so far. They went to Tuscaloosa and beat the Crimson Tide to claim the top spot. Keeping this top spot will not be easy, because Ole Miss plays in the SEC West. If they keep winning, there is no reason why they shouldn’t be ranked #1 for the rest of the season. Chad Kelly has an elite arm, and the defense is led by All-American stud Robert Nkemdiche. Seriously, put Nkemdiche anywhere (yes anywhere) on the field and not only will he succeed, but he will excel at the position he is placed. This guy is an absolute monster, and made Alabama players look like FCS talent with the way he threw them to the ground. If teams don’t double team him, he will create chaos in the backfield, but if they do, that leaves opportunities for other former five stars to prove they can play too. Ole Miss put up 43 points and has put up 192 points in three games, but their defense is going to lead them this season.
#2 Michigan State (3-0)----The Spartans took care of business against Air Force, but need to play better if they want to keep this spot. A win against Oregon is great, but their margin of victories against Western Michigan (13) and the Falcons (14) is less than impressive. The October 17th matchup against Michigan seems to be the next big test for this Michigan State team, but the rest of their schedule is weak. The lack of depth in the Big Ten will end up hurting the Spartans in the long run, leaving the game against Ohio State as their play-in game to the playoff.
#3 LSU----The Tigers have the Heisman frontrunner in their backfield and a solid defense. Sounds like a typical Les Miles team. If Brandon Harris can become a factor in games, this team will win the SEC. The defense is one of the nation’s elite, and does everything it can to give the ball back to Harris and star back Leonard Fournette. Fournette will be running all over defenses in the SEC until the Tigers can get more consistent play under center. Once Harris figures things out, receivers Travis Dural and Malachi Dupre will have breakout games as well. SEC teams better hope Harris doesn’t progress, because the Tigers will run away with the conference title if that happens.
#4 Notre Dame----The Buckeyes didn’t deserve this last spot after a terrible performance against Northern Illinois. The Irish proved that they have two quarterbacks people can talk about too. The difference is their backup excelled in a top 25 matchup. The Irish let CJ Prosise run for 198 yards and three touchdowns to relieve some of the pressure on freshman quarterback DeShone Kizer. Notre Dame plays UMass, then travels to Death Valley to play a Clemson Tigers team looking to prove themselves. If the Irish can stay healthy, they will have a serious run at the playoff.
Teams on the outside looking in:
Ohio State, Georgia, TCU, Oklahoma
GAMES OF THE WEEK/PICKEM
*all rankings are based on AP Poll
Last week shook college football, and a repeat of week 3 will be hard to replicate. Nevertheless, week 4 will separate the pretenders from the contenders. There are no top 10 matchups this week, but many games including teams looking to prove themselves (BYU at Michigan, USC at Arizona State, Oklahoma State at Texas, and Tennessee at Florida)
Overall Record: 6-6 Last week: 2-2
#3 TCU (3-0) at Texas Tech (3-0)
TCU is losing players due to injuries, arrests, and personal problems. While that alone isn’t surprising, the rate at which they keep losing players is quite concerning. The Horned Frogs have lost five starters for a long period of time, which isn’t what a team is looking for when they are trying to prove they belong in the college football playoff. Texas Tech is coming off an emotional win against Arkansas which sparked a heated debate. The Red Raiders will need a lot of help stopping Trevone Boykin, but their offense (which likes to go at a fast pace and throw the ball all over the field) won’t do much to keep TCU’s offense off the field. Tech’s defense hasn’t shown that it’s capable of stopping anyone (they gave up 45 points to FCS Sam Houston State), so they will rely on the offense to keep putting up points to give them a chance. While the Horned Frogs have been losing starters on defense, their depth has proved to be a strength this season. And with Heisman hopeful Boykin, the offense should take care of business.
My pick: TCU 49 Texas Tech 31
Mississippi State (2-1) at Auburn (2-1)
This game had so much potential at the beginning of the season, but that went downhill when one team let the hype get to them. Auburn will be starting a new quarterback and praying that their defense will figure out a way to stop Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott. The Tigers get State at home, hoping the home crowd will help their team turn the season around. The Bulldogs could easily be undefeated as their kicker missed a field goal as time expired against LSU. Prescott looks to give his team their first conference win, and until proven otherwise, the Tigers won’t do much to stop him.
My pick: Mississippi State 28 Auburn 21
#18 Utah (3-0) at #13 Oregon (2-1)
Last year, the Utes had Oregon right where they wanted them. They were about to be up 14-0 at home against the Ducks, the crowd was going crazy, and the Utes were thrilled. But celebration took precedence over completion. After a review, the Utes had fumbled the ball prior to scoring their second touchdown, Oregon recovered and returned the fumble to the house to tie the game up at 7. The Ducks never looked back in a 51-27 blowout. Now the Utes have to travel to Eugene against a Ducks team that is looking to make a statement after they came up short against Michigan State. Vernon Adams health continues to be a question with his index finger still healing. But Adams will play, and the Ducks won’t let Utah get close on their way back to the college football playoff.
My pick: Oregon 42 Utah 24
#9 UCLA (3-0) at #16 Arizona (3-0)
Which team can lose their start on defense and still be a contender? While there are reports that Scooby Wright III will practice this week, he is still questionable to play on Saturday. Wright has worked hard to make his return and get healthy, so it will be no surprise to see him in uniform and on the field Saturday. That and having ESPN’s College Gameday on campus should provide the necessary momentum for the Wildcats. UCLA is coming off an emotional win over BYU in a game where Josh Rosen threw three interceptions in the first half. Rosen cannot afford to turn the ball over on the road. The atmosphere in Tucson, a fast paced offense, and the loss of LB Myles Jack for the season, all will overwhelm a Bruins team that is still looking for consistency outside of Paul Perkins. At 0-3 in upset picks, I have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
My pick: UPSET SPECIAL: Arizona 35 UCLA 31
