Why Your Favorite Big 12 Team Will and Won't Make a Playoff Run
This is a big year for the Big 12, as they have yet to prove they are among the elite teams in the college football playoff. Oklahoma remains the only team to make it into the CFP, and they were beaten soundly by Clemson in 2015. The biggest downfall for the conference has been a lack of a title game, but that is no longer an issue. The Big 12 title game is back, and it could be the catapult that the top team needs to get into the playoff. Oklahoma, as usual, is the favorite, but lost its head coach. Oklahoma State has an elite offense, but has to get past the Sooners and find a defense. Texas has Tom Herman, but the Longhorns are coming off a season in which they lost to Kansas. This conference has a lot of potential, which is why they could be the conference to watch in 2017, but some serious concerns need to be addressed for each team. Multiple teams have a chance to make a run, and the only question is: which one?
PREVIOUSLY: MAC, PAC-12, MOUNTAIN WEST, SEC, SUN BELT
WEST VIRGINIA
WILL: Swarming opponents into mistakes on the hardwood, the Mountaineers blitz teams with points on the gridiron. And they may just do so with an upgrade at quarterback. Will Grier comes in as a transfer from Florida, and fans will come to realize that he can make them forget about Skyler Howard. Last year’s 10 win season ended poorly in the bowl game, but it could be a springboard for another breakthrough year in 2017.
WON’T: Let’s just forget, for a minute, that it still makes no sense for West Virginia to be in the Big 12 in the first place. It always seems that they are one of those teams that are good, but not great. For coach Dana Holgorsen, 10 wins kept his team competitive, but there weren’t many people who recognized the Mountaineers as a threat nationally. Unless Grier can recreate his magic from 2015, it could be another good, not great, season.
BAYLOR
WILL: Matt Rhule and Baylor may seem like a strange match, but make no mistake, the man can coach. What he did at Temple was simply astonishing, and if anyone can clean up a mess, it’s him. His cupboard isn’t bare either. The Bears will be overlooked for at least a few years and, as crazy as it may seem, that could be enough for them to surprise the nation.
WON’T: They're lucky to still have a program.
OKLAHOMA STATE
WILL: Teams will struggle with the Cowboys passing attack. Mason Rudolph (above) is poised to make a Heisman run, and his weapons around him will be nearly impossible to stop. Jalen McClesky and James Washington are a nightmare downfield, and running back Justice Hill may just be ready to break out in his sophomore year. Mike Gundy’s teams are always ready to compete, but this year feels like the one that they finally finish.
WON’T: For as good as Gundy’s offenses have been, the defenses have been equally as disappointing. The Cowboys also seem to have one point in each season in which they struggle (e.g. Iowa State 2012). Their tendency is to be second or third best in the conference, and Oklahoma is always in their way.
IOWA STATE
WILL: With the recent lack of talent at quarterback, receiver Allen Lazard could be considered the best in college football. He constantly faces double coverage, his quarterback’s protection is awful, and the Cyclones are rarely in games past halftime. So, the fact that he eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving is a near miracle. How does this translate to them making a run? Imagine what happens if Matt Campbell can get the rest of his team to play like Lazard. It’s not completely out of the question.
WON’T: Iowa State has consistently competed (if you want to call it that) with Kansas and Rutgers for the title of worst Power 5 team in the nation each year, and Lazard is one of the only consistent options on the team. The simple lack of talent makes things tough for the Cyclones to even be a threat in the Big 12, let alone the country. When you struggle to compete with Northern Iowa (FCS), you have a long way to go.
KANSAS STATE
WILL: There are certain teams you don’t doubt, and a team run by Bill Snyder is one of them. Snyder finds passed over talent, and turns them into All-Conference competitors. Players like QB Jesse Ertz and OL Dalton Risner are big reasons why the Wildcats have so much potential. Every player on this team has a big chip on their shoulder, and that’s motivation enough to get them to the top of the conference and make a playoff run.
WON’T: Unfortunately, it seems that since these unknown recruits can only rise so high, and there seems to be a ceiling that doesn’t result in national contention. In 2012, the Wildcats made it to #1 in the nation, but they stumbled and ended the year with a dud in the bowl game against Oregon. Snyder’s health is also a concern after a bout with cancer in the offseason, and his magic will only last so long at the school.
KANSAS
WILL: Well, they did beat Texas last year, right?
WON’T: Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we’re still talking about Kansas.
OKLAHOMA
WILL: Baker Mayfield is one of the best quarterbacks in college football. Now that his beef with Texas Tech and their head coach Kliff Kingsbury is dying down, he can focus on football and make a run for the Heisman. He shouldn’t have to worry about pressure with his entire line returning along with reliable target Mark Andrews.
WON’T: Bob Stoops is gone. After 18 seasons with the Sooners, Stoops decided to head into retirement, leaving Lincoln Riley as his replacement. No first year head coach has made it to playoff yet, which doesn’t play in Riley’s favor. Oklahoma also has a weird tendency to follow up consecutive successful seasons with an average season.
TCU
WILL: Gary Patterson has only had two losing seasons in his time at TCU, but each time he followed that with a one loss season. He also has 17 returning starters to aid that success, starting in the offensive backfield. Quarterback Kenny Hill and running back Kyle Hicks could be two of the best at their respective positions this year, and an explosion from both would make the Horned Frogs a national threat once again.
WON’T: Giving up 41 points to FCS South Dakota State wasn’t great to start the year, but only scoring six points in two of the last three regular season games was awful. Gary Patterson can’t expect to change his shirt and expect a turnaround every time, and his defense needs to get better from last season.
TEXAS TECH
WILL: Kliff Kingsbury can get his offense to score points, and they can do it predominantly through the air. Nic Shimonek is trying to replace Patrick Mahomes II, but the transition shouldn’t be as difficult as anticipated. He gave fans a preview of 2017 in brief appearances last year, and he has a lot of weapons to pass the ball to as well. Kingsbury’s team is going to be overlooked this year, and that should only help them shock the Big 12.
WON’T: Does anyone know if Texas Tech tried on defense last year? No? Didn’t think so. I mean, good grief, in their seven losses last season, they gave up nearly 55 points a game. They gave up 66+ points three times! Hot take: Kingsbury is gone after they lose to Houston in Week 4.
TEXAS
WILL: Tom Herman brought hope to Austin just by arriving on campus, and he has playmakers to get back on the national stage. QB Shane Buchele had a decent freshman year, but could really excel under Herman. LB Malik Jefferson hasn’t lived up to the hype, but should be a threat under DC Todd Orlando. But the biggest potential monster on the Longhorns roster? WR Collin Johnson. At 6-6 and 212 pounds, Johnson is freakishly athletic and has a year of experience under his belt. Herman know how to get the most out of his playmakers, and now he has more talent to work with than ever before as a head coach.
WON’T: Don’t think we forgot that you lost to Kansas. Teams that have lost to Kansas in the last five years: Rhode Island, SE Missouri State, Central Michigan, Iowa State, South Dakota, Louisiana Tech, and South Dakota State. Suuuuuuuper great company to be in. One coach doesn’t guarantee that all your problems will be fixed.
